by Stephen Collinson

BANGKOK, Feb 7 (AFP)

Asia�s growing demand for water will outstrip supplies in the 21st century unless farmers stop drowning crops with unnecessary irrigation, experts have warned.

As Asia�s population soars and industry thirsts for more and more water, agriculture, which guzzles 70 percent of the region�s stocks, must cut waste or see resources fall short of demand.

With reservoirs in drought-hit Thailand at their lowest levels for years, and neighbouring countries bracing for the long dry season, governments face the task of convincing farmers to radically change decades-old methods.

�In the next 15 years there will be higher competition, not only from the population rate ... also higher competition for water from the industrial sector,� said Dr Klaus Siegert of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

�There may be a problem ... if they continue to waste the water in the agricultural sector as they are doing at the moment.�

Despite the drought facing Thailand, farmers have continued pumping gallons of unnecessary water on to their land, researchers said.

According to some estimates up to 70 percent of water lavished on rice and other crops may be wasted.

Water loss, often arising from ignorance of the volume of water needed for specific crops, can occur through percolation into the soil or evaporation.

�You have farmers believing that more water is better, this is not true,� Siegert, the FAO�s regional water resources development officer, said in an interview with AFP.

Quoting research from the Sri Lanka-based International Irrigation Management Institute (IIMI), Siegert said that with greater efficiency Thailand had enough water to last at least until the year 2100.

By 2025, the world will need 62 percent more fresh water to maintain the current standard of living, reports quoting IIMI officials say.

But by cutting the amount of wasted water �there is absolutely no harm or no risk that Thailand, Vietnam (for example) will have problems to satisfy the demand,� Siegert said.

�The important thing is not that there isn�t enough water - but if they are practising the same low efficiency as they are doing now, then there will be a problem.�

Water shortages will typically affect the world�s most vulnerable people.

�We estimate that a quarter of the world�s population in developing countries live in regions that will experience severe water scarcity within the first quarter of the next century,� the IIMI said in a recent report.

Resources vary widely across Asia. China and India for example have some regions replete with supplies and others which are almost dry.

Researchers say The Philippines and Vietnam will only have to find 25 percent more water in the next 25 years to meet rising demand - a requirement that can easily be satisfied with greater efficiency.

But Myanmar may have to find a 100 percent increase in water over the same period.

Massive capital investments in dams and irrigation systems will be needed, which the military government, hammered by Asia�s investment drought and international sanctions cannot afford.

The FAO advocates the use of water charges to wean users off overwatering crops under some circumstances.

On land fed solely by rainfall, �water-harvesting�, boxing-in fields to collect and store excess water, can cut waste.

Other techniques like putting groups of farmers in charge of their own water resources can act as an incentive to responsibility.

In some areas though new water supplies need to be tapped requiring huge investment Asia cannot muster as it battles back from economic disaster.

�Thailand at the moment has certainly not the money to invest, the international donor community is a bit reluctant to invest,� said Sieghert.

Editor�s note

Alessandro RAIMONDI, our correspondent from Italy and Switzerland, is back with �The Globe�: as you may have noted his first correspondence has already appeared last Tuesday.

We are glad he�s back with us since we always appreciated his writings, so to make more significant our relationship we have asked him to take up the task of establishing a monthly coloumn to inform us on the European point of view on topics of interest.

Thus the coloum �European Observer� has come to existence.

Of course, the reader may or may not agree with these European thoughts, he doesn�t have to be convinced, the coloumn is, in fact, merely meant as a contribution for meditation and discussion.

By Alessandro RAIMONDI

(THE GLOBE)

The Starr report has shaken the otherwise still waters surrounding the White House, true there�s still the floating mine constituted by Saddam Hussein but, in all, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of the U.S. to the rank of the only world�s superpower, the American leaders haven�t had much issues to tackle with.

In such conditions even a gray figure like William Jefferson Clinton has been able to shine, benefitting of a 12-year hard work, deep in the roots of the American society, of the previous Republican administrations.

So everything was perfect to govern 8 years and enter history as the president of two millennia, but Bill - let me familiarly call the president this way, since he has become due to the Starr report like a member of our families, so frequently we see his face on TV and papers - has chosen a vaguely strange way to be reminded in history. �The liar� is the nickname with which Bill is by now known in the Old Continent. And this has really very little to do with the inappropriate relationship that the president and a young girl have developed over past months at the White House. That has got much more to do with his own moral, but lies in office, or in a court case, or to a Grand Jury and most generally on every sort of official occasions is what has earned Bill a place in history, regardless of the issue.

Of course, there�s a lot of debate in Europe on the case itself and the consequent impeachment proceedings: there�s who thinks the whole affair is a significant waste of money - true, but it�d been enough to admit the truth at the very beginning without cheating those invested of the capacity of investigating, and therefore forcing them to go on for discovering the truth, to save that money -; there�s, on the contrary, who plaudes at the continuation of the case; there�s who simply considers the whole affair as a personal matter of two persons and therefore to be left in the so-called �privacy sanctuary�: there�s who supposes there are many other important matters to tend to, and so on. To make it short, as natural, even Europeans show a variety of sentiments and opinions over this Clinton saga. One thing, however, has tumultuously emerged: the total loss of trust in Bill Clinton. Knowing that somebody�s a liar causes a total lack of confidence in him and �that� indeed counts when the unreliable guy is the president of the United States.

The credibility of the man may and does effect that of the country he represents, a side effect that America certainly doesn�t deserve but that the presence of such a man as chief executive implies.

European observers are actually puzzled by the lack of sensibility of the US president, the reasoning is quite simple: if Clinton doesn�t feel the urge of stepping down from office because of his �misdemeanors�, to use the term suggested by Founding Father George Mason of Virginia, it�s fatal that the lack of trust on him grows and ultimately reaches a dangerous climax.

Some do remember that in a sort of bed scandal John Profumo had to resign his UK government ministerial post in the sixties. Others remember that for another sexual affair Gary Hart had to drop his hopes for a White House nomination few years back. All right , diffrent stories, but all generated by� inappropriate relationships between political figures and handsome ladies. Mr. Clinton doesn�t give up, he probably thinks of himself with high regard but nobody, if his assumption is correct, can understand why.

Speculations may be cast on the fact that Mr. Clinton has been re-elected as president and that the mid-term elections last year have shown no great changes in terms of popular consent, but there�s a reading key for this as well. Since Clinton got power for his first mandate the American people framed him in a Congress of opposite tendencies: has it ever happened before? To Europeans that means that the American people trust not the guy fully. As for the missing big change in the Congress composition at the recent mid-term elections, that the president has interpreted as the desire of Americans that he stays in office, there�s as well another way to red this event too. The sense of responsability of the American people is far greater than that of its #1 leader: nobody can be proud for the fall of a presidency in a case such as this, and nobody wants to be the executioner, confident, perhaps, that the concerned person may adopt the most apt solution by finding it in his inmost recesses: his conscience. The president has failed in this too: given the chance he has preferred to read it �his� own way�

Further, Europeans ponder on another view of the same situation: assumed that as �the� American president he�s been pardoned by the American people, his position is as well that of the leader of the Free World. Well, then, has Mr. Clinton asked the other member states of the Free World what they think of being represented by him the way that they know him now? I strongly doubt it, for sure Europe doesn�t need such examples.

In one of the televised evidences shown these days at the US Congress, inquired on the affair, Mr. Clinton has concluded with, somewhat bored of having been asked and seemingly trying to switch the blame on the inquirer, �I need to go back to work��.

The digest is made on the basis of local and foreign mass media and Internet materials. Translation and adaptation of the text - Alexandr Zelichenko, Project Officer.

(Specially for the GLOBE)

October 1998 - January 1999

Russia

According to the State Customs Committee apart from the traditional ways of drug trafficking: �The Golden Triangle� (Laos -Thailand-Myanmar) and �The Golden Crescent� (Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan), the Mafia actively uses 5-7 other drug routes. �All these routes are to greater or smaller degree under the control of the committee�.

In 1998 Russian customs officers prevented 1719 attempts of drug trafficking, arresting �the poison� for the total sum of $30,7 million. They confiscated 47, 3 kilograms of heroin, 50, 1 kilograms of cocaine, 129 kilograms of opium, 6 tons of marihuana and hashish, 142 tons of chemical substances, used for drug production. Customs officers think their organization manages to confiscate 10-15% of the total amount of drugs going through the Russian market (the indicator is rather high).

On January 21 they managed to confiscate the largest lot of heroin in the Russian history, making 220 kilograms for the total sum of over $22 million (in the prices of the black market) at the Customs in Astrakhan. This lot is one of the largest in the international scale. According to the data of the International Customs Organization over the whole period of 1997 they managed to confiscate only 11 tons of �the white death�.

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs 100 % of heroin consumed in Russia is produced in Afghanistan or Pakistan and goes to Russia through Central Asian countries - Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan.

Over 2 000 000 of Russian citizens regular abuse drugs, while 200 thousand suffer from narcotism. As early as in 1995 a few regions registered more than one thousand narcotic crimes per year, while in 1997 the amount of such regions reached 42.

St. Petersburg is one of the most narcotism-infected cities in Russia. In 1998 the Federal Security Service confiscated drugs for $3 million. The most considerable confiscation was 10 kilograms of cocaine, transported from the Latin America. They detained 17 drug traffickers from Russia and Tajikistan, distributing drugs in St. Petersburg.

Some years ago advanced young people of the city acquired a new �narcotic passion� - hallucinogenic toadstools. Their abuse leads to irreplaceable negative processes in psyche, as well as to frequent poisonings and even deaths due to over-dosages.

Benefiting from the crisis situation, the narcotic Mafia is aggressively investing in science. For example one of the scientific and research institutes in Siberia carried out scientific research and produced �synthetic drugs made to Mafia�s order.

Tajikistan

On January 15 Dushambe hosted the international meeting, called �Tajikistan Free from Drugs� under the sponsorship of the State Commission for Drug Control under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan. President E. Rakhmonov gave a speech in the meeting.

The regional representative of the International program of the UN for control over drugs informed that the international community would allocate $8 000 000 to Tajikistan to built �a security belt� designed to strengthen Tajikistan-Afghanistan frontiers.

According to international experts in 1999 Afghanistan is going to expand three times poppy fields and to produce up to 700 tons of heroin per year!

Kazakstan

Over the last five years the amount of drug-related crimes increased four times in the republic. In the most narcotism-infected regions this amount reached 60 % of the total number of crimes.

The last 10 years saw 5 times increase of drug abusers. Officially the amount makes about 28 thousand, while unofficially - up to 250 thousand. Over 70 % of all drug abusers are under 30 years. The most popular narcotics are marihuana and hashish (75 %), opium (20 %) and ephedrine.

For the first time over the last years the prices for opium decreased by 20%, showing excess-supply.

According to the latest data wild hemp in the Shuysk Valley of Kazakstan grows on the territory of 172 000 hectares. Moreover, due to cultivation they managed to considerably increase its productivity.

Kazakstan not only �exports� narcotics but also actively �imports� them.

Over the last 10 years volumes of illegal import saw seven times increase: 80 % of opium are delivered from Afghanistan, tablets of ephedrine - from China, synthetic narcotics - from Poland, Holland and Canada by transit through Russia.

The protocol, stipulating security provision on the channel of international transport communications signed last December, the heads of the National Security Committee of Kazakstan and the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation undertook to assist in suppressing use of transport transit communications for illegal immigration and drug and arm contraband. The protocol also stipulated mutual assistance in fighting against corruption and organized criminality. 15 successful join operations against drug traffickers, carried out in the frames of the present protocol were reported to be successuful.

Kyrgyzstan

In one of his interviews president Akayev named narcotic business �a real force we should reckon with�. He also pointed out that �flow of narcotics, going to our countries from Afghanistan is continuing to increase� and that huge sums of money are involved in the business. Answering the question, if the narcotic Mafia disposes of enough money to appoint presidents and dismiss the governments, he said that being a transit country for drug traffickers, Kyrgyzstan however is far from the appointment of appropriate leaders by narcotic Mafia. But if the country does not struggle against narcotic business it may find itself exactly in such situation.

At the end of the interview he said that the problem of narcotics is of primary importance for him.

According to the information of the UN Program for Control over Narcotics, Kyrgyzstan is among the first countries to have the largest territories with drag containing plants as compared to the total square of the country.

Officially there are 5000 drug abusers in the republic. However experts think the real amount makes 50 000. The greatest majority is aged between 14 and 25. Their life expectancy totals 40 -45 years.

According to the Bishkek forensic examination body in November-December of 1998 seven drug abusers dead due to over-dosages.

If in early 80-ies every 25th crime was provoked by drug abuse, currently this figure reached 9-10 and even 6-7 in some regions.

Last year all kinds of drug abuse increased five times as compared to 1990. In cities the indicator is even higher: in Bishkek - 67, 4 per 100 000 people, in Tokmak - 62, 7 , in Kant - 75, 4, in Osh - 53,1, in Talas - 43, 5 (the national average level makes 20, 2 %).

The republic officially registered five HIV infected abusers.

In 1997-98 period 294 women, making 12, 5 % of the total number of drug traffickers were arrested in the republic.

As early as in 1993-95 the republic developed �the national strategy� of struggle against narcotism. They adopted the governmental program for 1998-2000. The republic also adopted Law �On Narcotic and Psychotropic Substances� (the first law of the kind in the countries of Central Asia) and developed a concept of governmental policy in the sphere of control over narcotic and psychotropic substances for 1998-2000.

They started work directed on the primary prevention of narcotism among the under-aged. Some programs, stipulating health way of life promotion are introduced in senior groups of kindergartens and in secondary schools. There is a special course, called

� Prevention of additive behavior and work with �groups of risk� for teachers of physical culture� in the Kyrgyz State Institute of Physical Culture and Sports and in the Bishkek Humanitarian Institute.

Late in 1998 they held a regular meeting in the headquarters of the project in the frames of the well-known International Anti-Drug Project, called �Osh Knot�. The officers of militia and customs anti-narcotic divisions of Osh and Andizhan oblasts and the Murgab region participated in the meeting. Customs officers from Moscow take part in the meeting for the first time. By common efforts the participants managed to determine the most �perspective� directions of narcotic trafficking as well as preventive measures.

Uzbekistan

For the past 6 years the republic managed to confiscate about 40 tons of drugs - more than in any other Central Asian republics. They liquidated dozens of organized criminal groups with transnational links. Cases of attempts to pass national borders, made by armed criminal groups became more frequent. Frontier guards rebuffed their attacks with fire.

Struggling against narcotic business the National Security Service works in close contact with special services of 20 countries, including Russia, the USA and Germany. There is a system of telecommunications in the Central Asian Region designed specially for these purposes. The republic is implementing �STOP� international program, where special services of five countries of the region as well as of the Russian Federation and the USA participate.

Germany and Switzerland

The example of Holland, which legalized �soft narcotics� finds new and new followers in Europe. Switzerland announced a referendum on the issue on legalization of all (not only marihuana and hashish) drugs. Fortunately, the common sense prevailed and all the cantons voted against.

The German government has been examining the problem of �soft drugs� legalization for several years. De jure all kinds of narcotic substances are prohibited in the country. De facto during several years several grams of carrying a few grams of marihuana or hashish is not grounds for bringing to account.

Iran

To boost interrelations in the struggle against narcotic business the International Program for control over drugs is planning to set up a new office in Teheran in near future.