Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova,
President of the Agency of Political and Social Scientists.
Kokshetau
January, the third decade
Total number of respondents: 200
Analysis include 189 questionnaires.
The preliminary distribution of votes, given to acting parties (% in column)
| Kokshetau | Almaty | |
| The Communist Party | 18,8 | 12,5 |
| The Socialist Party | 0,5 | 5,0 |
| The Democratic Party | 8,1 | 9,4 |
| The People�s Congress of Kazakhstan | 1,0 | 1,9 |
| The Party of People�s Unity of Kazakhstan | 2,5 | 3,8 |
| The People�s Co-operative Party | 0,5 | 0,6 |
| The Party of Kazakhstan�s Renaissance | 5,6 | 1,9 |
| The Civil Party | 1,0 | 0,0 |
| TABIGAD Party | 5,1 | 1,3 |
| In case parties are registered | ||
| The Republican People�s Party | 3.0 | 5,6 |
| AZAMAT Party | 5,1 | 3,8 |
| For none of the listed parties | 9,1 | 14,4 |
| No decision yet | 39,6 | 40,0 |
The data of the table points out that the ruling parties, or parties loyal to the ruling powers, are not able to catch electorate�s votes in their �political scene�. In their actual position most of them seem to be political �zombies�.
Despite the fact that citizens of Almaty hardly support the course of governmental reforms, they limit themselves with very cautious and sometimes loyal wishes to the President of the Republic (see the Globe # 7 (325) as of 26.01.99, C, 6).
What would you like to wish to the President of Kazakhstan on occasion of his forthcoming inauguration. (% in column)
| Kokshetau | Almaty | |
| To reach the international level of living standards | 40,7 | 28,6 |
| Health, happiness and long life | 14,1 | 10,8 |
| To successfully make 10 steps towards simple people | 12,1 | 20,6 |
|
||
| 11,8 | 15,8 | |
| Successful implementation of the strategy �2030� | 10,5 | 7,5 |
| Professional and effective work of the government under | ||
| the his leadership | 6,9 | 11,7 |
| Difficult to answer | 0,7 | 1,9 |
| Other | 3,3 | 3,1 |
Favorites of Kokshetau electorate
1. S. Abdildin
2. A. Kazhegeldin
3. M. Auezov
4. G. Abilsiitov and S. Kuttykadam
Favorites of Almaty electorate:
1. A. Kazhegeldin
2. I. Savostina
3. S. Abdildin
4. M. Auezov
5. M Yeleusizov and S. Kuttykadam
Taking into account extreme toughness of the forthcoming parliamentary elections and the fact that they will not avoid an obligatory, in such cases, compromise against rivals, one may expect high electoral activity, though territorially uneven.
In one paragraph:
The symptoms of the upcoming parliamentary elections, when a pro-presidential block is led to the political podium, and the elections may actually turn into just another �vote of confidence� to the President on part of Kazakhstan�s people give every ground to be alarmed.
Tashkent officially announced this week the inexpediency of a further membership in the Agreement on Collective Security of the CIS States, the validity of which expires this year. We�d like to remind our readers that President Karimov was one of main initiators of signing that agreement in 1992.
�This is a well thought-out decision taken by Islam Karimov,� noted one authoritative expert from Kazakstan in an interview with Globe. The reason is as follows.
Such an initiative could be characterized as an earnest claim for a role of a leading regional power, the opinion of which should be taken into account. Tashkent clearly hints that a period of the establishment of a sovereign state has been already completed. It is worth mentioning that this is a significant step undertaken by Islam Karimov on an international level. And it is rather important for Kazakstan, and in particular, for President Nazarbayev�s foreign political initiatives.
Taking into consideration the response of western circles towards anticipatory presidential elections in Kazakstan, as well as an intensification of the activity of Uzbekistan on the international arena, it is possible to suppose that the attention to Kazakstan will considerably decrease.
As a confirmation of it, one could observe certain shifts in the positions of such countries as the USA and Russia. So, Washington has already recognized Uzbekistan as the regional power. Moreover, in the opinion of some experts, the USA earnestly considers Uzbekistan as a potential strategic partner in the region, via which it is possible to significantly weaken Russia�s influence in Central Asia.
On the other hand, a lot of documents on cooperation were signed in Tashkent during negotiations between Boris Yeltsin and Islam Karimov in October of last year. And the chief thing is that Kremlin explicitly noted that now Uzbekistan is a main partner of Russia in the Central Asian region.
Characterizing a state of affairs in Uzbekistan, the following fact attracts attention. This Central Asian republic is almost independent from foreign states in economic terms. And it only consolidates its leading position in the region.
It is interesting to emphasize a two-polar aspect of Uzbekistan�s foreign policy. Tashkent is against any military and political blocks and welcomes only the economic integration. At the same time, Islam Karimov directly declares his interest in relying upon Russia�s military power in case of aggression on the part of Talibes.
Besides, against a background of sharp condemnation of Islamic extremism ,Tashkent directly announces the prohibition of weapons supplies to Afghanistan across the territory of Uzbekistan. For that purpose it closed a bridge connecting Afghanistan and the Eurasian continent.
R. D.
Translation of the firm �Insel� V.B.