ELECTION

Liberty in Kazakh

The first week of September was marked with the important events (the 100th anniversary of the Kazakhstan oil and the start of parliamentarians� work). The whole century has passed from that moment when �black gold� was found in the Kazakh land for the first time. Has this resulted in any positive changes in the life of common people living in this land? What has changed from that important day? A journalist of the Kazakh Service of Radio �Liberty� (KSRL) meditates on this theme.

The Parliament has started its work after the vacations. Now deputies are anxious with uncompleted issues and future election. Will electors support the present parliamentarians for them to enter the composition of the future Parliament? THE GLOBE proposes the Readers the material of KSRL devoted to this theme.

Oil celebration against the background of the difficult situation

This autumn began in Kazakhstan with a great celebration, when for the first 5 days it was not oil, but vodka and kumys that flowed as a river in the Western Kazakhstan. In the official language this holiday is called �the 100th anniversary of the Kazakhstan oil�.

Here a bit of history is. It is known that at first the profit from the Kazakhstan oil was gained by businessmen from other countries, as according to the tsar�s permission they began to produce oil in the Kazakh land. Brothers Mobil began drilling works in the Caspian region. Now this is a famous international company. Who knows, maybe Alfred Mobil�s capital was initiated in this place namely.

One hundred years have passed from the first day of the oil production in the Kazakh land. The oil industry is the most profitable one. What good has it done for the population?

The celebration of the great event began on September 1 in the town of Atyrau. Important persons were invited to the event. More than US$ 7 million were spent to the celebration. This big amount, according to the Akim of the Western Kazakhstan region Imangali Tasmagambetov, was not financed from the budget, but by sponsors in the person of oil companies.

The President who was present at the event as one of the most honourable guests, in his congratulatory speech did not forget to remind once again that the clear future of Kazakhstan directly depended on oil reserves. The celebration, which was held in 3 districts of the 4 oil regions, is to end in the town of Aktobe on September 5. Honourable guests did not pay attention to one of the regions (the Kzylorda region). Possible this is connected with the fact that the statesmen had no time to visit the town, or, maybe, due to a difficult social situation in the region, to demonstrate which to foreign guests would be shameful.

�The oil business has not improve the life standard of the regional population,� the oldest journalist of the rail-road edition Shaikhislam Serikbaiuly states in his interview to the Radio �Liberty. �There are 600 multi-stores houses in the town, including 200 of them are not heated, as they have not been prepared for the winter season. There is a deficit of gas in the region, though there are an excess of gas at the Kumkol deposit. It is possible to separate gas contained in oil and to use for the population� needs, but our authorities do not care of this. In 1990 I appealed in this regard to the head of the region, but my proposals were not taken into consideration. Since that time the regional heads were changed, but this did not improve the situation.�

In Mangistau region the social condition of the population is also difficult. Kzylorda region takes the first place by the number of tuberculosis, while Mangistau region � the second place.

The deputy of the chief doctor of the Tuberculosis Hospital Ibragim Sarsenaliev states the following in the local newspaper �Tumba�:

�The increasing number of patients with tuberculosis observed recently, proves that the population�s life has become worse. The number of ill persons will steadily grow.�

Also, according to the information of the regional newspaper �Lada�, the condition of the kindergartens and schools arouses a serious anxiousness. The heads of schools were ordered to earn money in any way. At one of the meetings the Akim of Atyrau Serik Ospanov was even surprised with schools� demand to provide them with hot water.

These are sad news from the oil regions, where the luxury celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Kazakhstan oil is being held now.

Congratulating his compatriots, the Akim of the Mangistau region Lyazzat Kiinov said the region was gradually overcoming the difficult situation, and that social programs were being paid a great attention.

The company �Mangistau Munai Gas� transmitted US$ 1500 to 2200 to some hospitals and children�s houses each. The same was done in the Atyrau and Aktyubinsk regions. A new bridge was constructed in Atyrau and roads were repaired in the town. But some Atyrau citizens are very sceptic to these innovations, as they say that autumn rains will wash out bright pains of the celebration.

The Mazhilis Speaker, an Aktyubinsk citizen Marat Ospanov, who did not participate in the event, says in his interview: �I do not understand such a wastage, while workers do not receive salary and pensioners do not receive their pensions. There is oil in this region, and it would be better to create new working places in the region than to hold such events.�

Possibly, as the Mazhilis Speaker is a member of �Otan� party loyal to the authorities, his speech is just a political game. But it is high time for other persons who are at power that oil has not brought any profits to the common people, but only troubles.

04.09.99

Parliament has started its work. The election will be held soon.

In the last week, on September 1 our awaited deputies started the 5th session of the Parliament, where the head of the state was present. In his speech Nazarbaev first of all mentioned the work of the last sessions and entitled parliamentarians to consider the long-suffering law on labour. Deputies were sitting with an idle look, though they promised to settle positively all people�s problems. So this session was completed.

The joint meeting of the Parliament held in the end of the week was started a half of an hour later than it had been appointed, as people�s representatives could not concentrate on the work after the vacations. Maybe due to this fact a half of them were absent, while the rest were slowly coming. Twenty-two bills mentioned in the agenda, were transferred to separate committees for consideration.

The next problem was issue regarding the fate of the future Parliament. According to the Central Election Commission, 595 candidates to the Mazhilis have been registered, including 74 deputies were nominated by public unions, 127 � by political parties, the rest candidates were self-nominated. It should be mentioned that while passing the registration many parties face serious obstacles. However, some of the parties, which are closest to the authorities, for example �Otan� party faced no especial problems regarding the registration.

The opposition�s parties, such as �Alash�, RPPK still cannot pass the registration, as their applications are still under consideration. The Central Election Commission, which is subordinate to the President, creates different obstacles for persons, who are obviously objectionably for the authorities. Otherwise how can we consider the fact that till the present time it has not been decided whether the leader of the Working movement Madel Ismailov, who served his sentence for insulting the President�s honour and dignity, and the former Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin. According to the head of the juridical department of the Central Election Commission Vladimir Fos, persons who were made answerable for administrative infringements within the last pre-election year, cannot be nominated deputies. Vladimir Fos affirms that Akezhan Kazhegeldin did not submit a certificate from the psychiatric hospital, which is to confirm his psychic health, in time. Possibly, this my become the main reason for the ex Prime Minister not to be able to pass the registration.

In conclusion we should say that at the 5th session of the Parliament the President took a chance to instruct deputies once more. Namely he ordered them to consider the law �On labour�, and to improve the situation in the agriculture. The instructions of the leader of the state were indifferently perceived by deputies, who did not express any special activity, maybe because they do not expect themselves to get into deputies� armchairs again.

As far as the next Parliamentary election is concerned, it should be mentioned that the Central Election Commission is still performing its usual role following the same policy, that may negatively influence the results of the election.

05.09.99

(The GLOBE basing on materials of the Kazakh Service

of Radio �Liberty�)

Monitor of public opinion

Opinion of women electorate is inscrutable

Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova, President of ASaP

ALMATY, Sept 5

26 to 20 August, 1999

1993 women were polled

Towns: Astana, Almaty, Aktobe, Aktau, Atyrau,

Kzylorda, Kostanai, Petropavlovsk, Kokchetau,

Karaganda, Ekibastuz, Zhezkazgan, Ust-Kamenogorsk,

Uralsk, Temirtau, Semipalatinsk, Taldykorgan, Taraz,

Lisakovsk, Shymkent, Karasai

The poll was conducted in the frame of the National Women�s Fair �Kanatty Aiel�

Prevailing opinion

- Most polled women of the republic (52.3%) will take part in the Parliamentary election;

- The following organisations have the highest rating among the polled women: the Youth�s movement �For the future of Kazakhstan�, the party �Political Alliance of Women�s Organisations�, and �Otan� party.

- The five candidates, who have the highest authority and the highest ratings and are mostly respected by the women-electors, are as follows: R. Sarsembaeva, R. Rymbaeva, A. Kazhegeldin, B. Abilov, and M. Auezov.

Analysis of the poll results

The election to the Lower House of the Parliament was appointed on the second Sunday of October.

Taking into consideration the data of the republican poll, there are no grounds to say that women�s electorate activity has weakened. The level of women�s absenteeism does not exceed one-fourth of the polled persons. The same number of women has decided to take part in the Parliamentary election.

Ratings of parties and movements according to the specific weight of women voting for them (in %)

We should mention that the women�s electorate is something unpredictable� It cannot be understood, we have just to accept the obtained structure of their answers.

Let�s try to compare this list with ratings of candidates to the Mazhilis. Maybe, the comparison will clarify the motifs of the electorate choice by the polled women.

Candidates� ratings according to the highest trust and respect by women (in %)

It is necessary to take into consideration the following factors:

- First, women�s electorate is 52% of the total number of votes of the republican population. According to the preliminary estimations of ASaP, the level of the men�s electorate absenteeism is higher than the women�s one. Only every 3rd person among the polled men is going to take part in the Parliamentary election, while every second woman has decided to participate in the voting. We have to admit that the distribution of women�s votes may determine the results of the election.

- Second, candidates mentioned by the women. Women living in 21 town of Kazakhstan were polled. The preliminary results of the electorate preferences of women make hopes for the independent deputies, who are not patronised by the authorities, week.

The electorate priorities of women are given to the Youth�s movement �For the future of Kazakhstan�, most probably, due to a great action �We new, for whom we vote�; to the Women�s Political Party, which has not nominate its candidates by the party�s list due to the temporary registration; to �Otan� party and to the Civil party, whose candidates� meetings rather promise disappointments than hopes for the efficient and independent Parliament; and to the public movement �Lad�, which is �sterile� from the policy.

What is the basis of the women�s preferences? First of all, it is sex of candidates, the so-called women�s solidarity. Pay attention to the fact that women (R. Sarsembaeva and R. Rymbaeva) occupy the upper positions in the list of ratings. It seems that if more women had been mentioned in the list, their group would have completely headed the list, thus, making men to retreat to the end of the list.

Of course, women�s solidarity is more than just belonging to the common sex. This is a definite level of recognition and trust, as women�s problems are closer and more understandable for any woman. That means that the women will settle these problems as her own ones.

Who several months ago could predict the unexpected event and the entrance of Women�s party into the political arena right before the Parliamentary election? The party�s appearance, according to the results of the poll, may damage plans of some parties and movements, whose lists include fewer women-candidates.

At the same time, it is not a secrete that the women�s opinion is very sensitive to emotional influence and may become an easy �booty� of politicians who are skilled in oratory.

Besides, women are more often than men are disoriented while choosing. This is proved by the comparison of ratings of parties, movements and candidates. Women�s weak correlation and a wide range of opinions prove that most women have not made a final choice. That means that the battlefield for women�s votes is still opened for a decisive fight.

For example, RPPK takes the 14th place in the list of parties� ratings, while its leader A. Kazhegeldin takes the 3rd place in the list of candidates� ratings. What does it mean? This proves that the election campaign of RPPK may be considered by women-electors as successful, if they will focus on the authority of the leader of the republican party. Unfortunately, this technology is not applicable for �Alash� party. The less Mr. Bazelbaev will speak on TV, the more �points� the party will gain in the rating list.

The main index of disorientation of the women�s electorate is the combination of absolutely independent �figures� in the first five numbers of the parties, movements and candidates� ratings.

Well, candidates of parties and movements, the matter depends on you. That candidate will win who will manage to win the majority of women�s votes.

Reviewer�s column

Pre-election campaign of �Otan� through polls of ASaP

The Republican Party �Otan� has registered at the Central Election Commission its party�s list consisting of 18 candidates. Now the party starts its pre-election campaign, the press release of the party dated August 6 states.

According to the poll conducted by ASaP in August 1999 (THE GLOBE # 64(382), 27.08.99), �Otan� takes the fifth place in the list of parties, which the electors would like to see in the Parliament.

At the same time, according to the results of the same poll, most electors expect �Otan� party will get a maximum number of deputies� sits in the legislative body of the country.

The following slogans of �Otan� seems noteworthy:

- Education to healthy children, but not to wealthy parents.

- Healthy children are healthy future of the nation.

- Well-to-do old age today, but not in the far future.

- Small business is protection from poverty.

- No blood and violence in Kazakhstan.

All slogans are extremely urgent for the republic. According to the information of ASaP, from March to July 1999 the specific weight of the Almaty population who consider themselves poor has exceed 5 times.

It is known that the party bases its agitation work on criticism of the government�s actions and, probably, will try to pursue electors that �Otan� is able to realise its slogans.

However, the data of the Association of Sociologists and Politologists show that one-third of the population is not going to vote. These people believe that the Parliament was and will be �obedient� to the authorities.

THE GLOBE will keep you informed about the future events.

R. D.

Possibilities of candidates of the opposition in the future Parliamentary activity

ALMATY, Sept 2

IIA �POLITON�

Recently political parties and movements, including ones being in the opposition to the ruling elite, significantly activated their pre-election activity. Such parties as the Communist Party, Republican People�s Party and �Azamat� have nominated their candidates to the Mazhilis. The Independent Informational Agency �PoliTon� conducted a poll of experts regarding the possibilities of the opposition to influence the situation in the republic, if their representatives are elected to the Parliament. The experts expressed different opinions.

One group of the experts believes that the opposition using mechanisms of their participation in the Parliamentary activity, will not significantly influence the situation in the republic. This circumstance is explained by the experts with the following reasons.

First, according to the experts, we should hardly expect that the opposition would get a lot of sits in the Parliament. The experts connect this with neither the non-democracy of the election legislation, nor voting procedures nor calculation of the votes.

Second, according to the Constitution of RK, the authority of the Parliament is significantly restricted. In particular, the Parliament cannot control the activity of local executive bodies and cannot influence the fulfilment of the laws approved by the Parliament. Some experts think that under the circumstances of the rigid presidential governing no initiatives of the Parliament may be realised against the President�s will and without his agreement.

Third, the experts suppose that representatives of the opposition will hardly be able to gain the support of the majority of the deputies loyal to the authorities while discussing important issues. Possibly, the latter will mainly contradict the activity of the opposition�s deputies.

Fourth, the experts expect that the opposition will be politically disconnected in the Parliament and unable to unite their efforts for the joint activity. Some experts believe that the following representatives of the opposition may become the opposition�s deputies:

a) conformists criticising some separate moments of the government�s policy and thus, striving for posts in the state structures;

b) moderate persons who try just to attack the government;

c) radical persons who are against the total system.

The experts think that these deputies will hardly agree on their joint activity. Though, possibly, their positions may coincide in some points.

Fifth, there is an opinion that some unprofessional persons may be among the deputies of the opposition, who are not ready for the work in the legislative body, as well as persons following their private interests. That is why, the experts consider their future activity as unfruitful.

Some experts affirm that anyhow the Kazakhstan opposition will not able to influence the situation in the republic despite the results of the future elections. According to the experts, this will happen mainly due to the opposition has not formed as a political, ideological and organisational force.

The opposition mainly represents people who are not satisfied with the situation in the country, but who are eager to act independently, though they are unable to associate with each other.

The second group of the experts supposes that the Parliament still has some definite methods to influence the authorities and its deputies. According to these experts, deputies of the opposition may:

1) significantly influence the legislative process by means of an active realisation of their right of the legislative initiative;

2) to initiate the introduction on corrections to the Constitution and laws, and to held referendums;

3) to initiate inquiries to be sent to the Constitutional Council;

4) to send actively inquiries to the legislative bodies;

5) to initiate reporting by the government before deputies;

6) using the Parliamentary platform, to attract attention of the Kazakhstan and international communities, as well as the authorities to the existing problems;

7) to criticise and to appeal to the authorities, including to demand either the dismissal of the government or dismissal of its members;

8) to assist the open discussion of the most important bills;

9) to use actively the mass media to propagandise their opinions and ideas. In this case, the experts believe, even the state mass media will not be able to ignore deputies;

10) to hold meetings in the form of open conferences with electors without sanctions of the authorities.

The experts also mentioned deputies� immunity and chance to raise the ratings of deputies� popularity as some additional positive elements of the participation of the opposition�s representatives in the Parliamentary activity. Some experts consider the Parliamentary activity of the opposition as a peculiar jumping-off place for the future presidential election. In any case, despite the Parliamentary�s influence is week in the country, the opposition will stir up the public opinion. Some experts mention that the activity of the parliamentarians representing the opposition may promote a great interest of a significant part of the republican population to the activity of the Parliament on the whole. The following factors may strengthen the position of the Parliament:

a) the deepening social-economic crisis, which promotes the growth of social resentment in the republic;

b) the absence of the unity inside the ruling elite due to its disconnection according to clan, branch and regional interests;

c) election in Russia to be held in 2000, which will influence the situation in Kazakhstan in a definite way;

d) a great number of deputies who are politically hesitating but having the common sense to enter the Parliament. These deputies are able to support the opposition in the Parliament.

In general, the experts think that under the present conditions, the coming of the opposition�s deputies to the Parliament will hardly ably to change significantly the situation in the republic. Nevertheless, using Parliamentary mechanisms, the op[position may make both the President and the government take consideration its opinion.

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