ATYRAU, Sept 3
(THE GLOBE)
�Atyrau will be the third (oil) capital in the republic,� the Prime Minister of the republic Nurlan Balgimbaev announced speaking at the scientific-practical conference in Atyrau during the celebration of the 100th jubilee of the Kazakhstan oil.
According to the head of the government, if Almaty is a trade and cultural centre, Astana is an administrative centre of the state; Atyrau will be the oil centre of the country.
�Only the Kazakhstan-American JV �Tengizchevron� will annually invest US$ 150 million to the construction of houses and other social infrastructure of this town,� the Prime Minister stated.
Beside this JV, according to PM, OKIOC and shareholders of Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) will invest to the social field.
If in 90 days the consortium OKIOC finds �a big oil� in the Caspian shelf, Mr. Balgimbaev stated, soon only 44 thousand of oil-industry workers will work in the Kazakhstan shelf of the sea.
Meanwhile, Nurlan Balgimbaev remarked that the world�s experience showed that there are three persons from the service sphere (teachers, doctors, hairdressers, etc.) per each oil-industry worker.
REMARKS BY THE GLOBE. At the present time in the Atyrau region local and foreign companies produce about 50% of all Kazakhstan oil. In 1998 more than 27 million tons of oil were produced in Kazakhstan. In the current year it is planned to increase the oil production volumes up to 30 million tons. About 250 to 300 thousand people live now in the town.
The projected reserves of the hydrocarbon raw material in the pre-Caspian hollow are evaluated by the experts in the amount of 6 to 12 billion tons.
�By 2010 it is planned to increase the annual oil production volume up to 100 million tons,� Mr. Balgimbaev said.
According to the Prime Minister of the republic, the Caspian region �is to compete with other world�s oil regions, where big oil is being produced for several decades.�
In August 1999 at the hard currency auctions the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) concluded 4097 transactions, including for US dollar � 3 992, for Deutsche mark � 73, and for EURO � 32. The total volume of the operations came to 32 309.0 million tenge, i.e. US$ 245 124.9 thousand.
The volume of operations with US$ dollar was US$ 243 million 800 thousand (i.e. 32 134.4 million tenge) at the average volume of the auction session US$ 61 million 072 thousand. The corresponding indices of August 1998 were as follows: US$ 84 million 995 thousand (i.e. 6666.5 million tenge) and US$ 4047.4 thousand.
Such a significant difference in comparison with the indices of the last year is caused by the obligatory sale of 50% of hard currency profits of exporters.
For the total history of tenge, the volume of auctions for US dollar achieved in August 1999 is maximum not only for August, but also for a month exchange turnover of a foreign currency. On one hand, this is explained with the obligatory sale, but it was rather caused by a very high saturation of the market with both US dollar and free tenge. The hard currency market is active and liquid, that is stated by all dealers without any exception.
The tenge�s devaluation rate, calculated for the average exchange rate to dollar, in August 1999 (30.07.99 = 131.9078 � 31.08.99 = 132.2635) is evaluated as an annual trend of 3.07%. For the previous months the respective index was minus 3.57% (tenge was re-evaluating).
The average �tenge/dollar� rate calculated for all transactions concluded in August is 131.81 per unit. In July this index was 132.45 tenge per dollar. Since the beginning of 1999 till 31.08.99 the respective index came to 118.72 tenge per dollar and for the month has increased from 115.63.
Within the last month the auctions for German mark and EURO were also held.
By Michael Lelyveld
Boston, 3 Sept
(RFE/RL)
The security crisis in Kyrgyzstan has added a new dimension to Central Asia�s problems, posing a difficult choice for the future of foreign investment, experts say.
An uprising by Islamic militants has sparked reactions by neighboring countries from Kazakhstan to Turkmenistan, which fear that similar outbreaks on their territories could disrupt their authoritarian styles of rule.
Analysts say it is too soon to tell whether the violence will lead to further delays in critical foreign projects including oil and gas pipelines, or whether fear of instability will convince national leaders to compromise on other issues that have previously stood in the way.
�It does complicate the pipeline question,� said Julia Nanay, director of Petroleum Finance Company in Washington, an industry consulting firm. �It�s not clear whether it will drive countries together to make things work, or whether things will fall apart and nothing will work.�
The fear is that the governments of the five Central Asian nations may be dealing with forces similar to those that have turned Afghanistan into a virtual desert for development, despite its rich potential as a transit country for gas exports to Pakistan and India.
Although the parallels may be limited, there appear to be similarities between the emergence of hostage-takers in Kyrgyzstan and the rise of Afghanistan�s Taliban from a tactical standpoint. Both have been driven by Islamic fundamentalism that defies repression, and both have crossed national borders to further their goals.
The idea that Uzbek insurgents could move east into Kyrgyzstan has already alarmed Turkmenistan, although it lies far to the west. On Wednesday, the government of President Saparmurat Niyazov announced that Turkmenistan will tighten its borders with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, as well as on the Caspian Sea.
The government insisted that the move was not prompted by the fighting in Kyrgyzstan, although there seems to be little doubt about the general cause. Turkmenistan only has to look farther west to see a much greater clash between Russia and cross-border forces from Chechnya in Daghestan.
The issue of borders has special relevance for pipeline planners because of the oil industry adage that both risks and costs multiply every time a border must be crossed. Transit fees and security are two major problems holding pipeline projects back.
As with Turkey�s earthquake last month, the militants in Central Asia have placed a new burden on problems that were already complex enough. The question is how governments will respond.
The initial reaction has been to turn toward Russia for security cooperation, a remarkable development, particularly for defiant Uzbekistan. With small armies and vast areas, the Central Asian nations may have little choice. If their pipeline projects with the West had been completed, they might seek security from Western structures like NATO. But for now, there seems to be little chance of Western help.
But Russia�s poor success rate in dealing with Islamic separatists may ultimately provide little comfort to Central Asian nations. Russia is also likely to exact a high price in terms of bending the region�s pipeline options toward its territory in return for protection. The issue could be touchy for Turkmenistan, which stands on the verge of building a trans-Caspian gas pipeline to the west. The new factor in the power struggle over export outlets could lead to further delays.
The alternative is to accelerate progress on issues that have so far stalled pipeline development. One example would be the Caspian border dispute between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, which has frustrated an agreement on the trans-Caspian gas line. While the two countries have wrangled, Azerbaijan has gained the time to find gas in its own sector, threatening to displace Turkmenistan as a supplier to Turkey.
Farther west, Turkmenistan could find an example in Azerbaijan where President Heydar Aliyev has pursued private personal talks with Armenian President Robert Kocharian on settling the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkmenistan has recently signaled that it may make concessions on its own border demands in the interest of completing a pipeline pact with Baku. Logic suggests that there may be more reason now to ease investor uncertainty, now that graver security problems loom.
But the Central Asian nations may also be especially vulnerable to the recent threats because of their reliance on one-man rule. The region has many problems but only a few decision-makers. In the coming weeks, their fears may drive them together, if their ambitions do not drive them apart.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
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