Nailya KENZHALINA
ALMATY, Feb3
(The Globe)
� One the principal priorities of the USA in Kazakstan is to assist in formation of a stable, independent and democratic state�, - said the newly-appointed US ambassador in Almaty on February 3.
Richard Jones highlighted that Kazakstan and the USA have very good and fruitful relationships, established from the first years of independence.
�From the moment the RK achieved independence the total assistance amount has comprised $6 bln and I do hope that the tendency will continue�, Mr. Jones noted. According to him investment of American private sector for the same period got to $2 bln. He also added that the USA provided for assistance in the social sphere, particularly in public health and pension reforms. Besides, the USA intend to support Kazakstan in development of marketing relations. On January 23, Mr.Jones presented his credentials to President of the RK Nursulan Nazarbayev and discussed a range of issues concerning further relations between the countries. The ambassador is planning to pay a visit to Astana in the nearest future, where he will get acquainted with Prime Minister of the RK Nurlan Balgimbayev and other government officials. Mr. Jones also noted that he would have liked to visit all the oblasts and regions in Kazakstan and to get acquainted with each akim personally. �We are willing to co-operate with you with the aim to overcome problems and to multiply opportunities, which the XXI century will give�, - Richard Jones concluded.
Representation (The Globe):
Richard Jones was approved by the USA Senate in the capacity of the US Ambassador to the Republic of Kazakstan on October 21 and swore an official oath on November 27, 1998. Previously Mr. Jones worked in the capacity of Ambassador to Lebanon, State department Office Director on affairs in Egypt, Political Affairs Chancellor for the Embassy in Riyadh, Director of Trade with Developed Countries division under the State Department. Richard Jones is conferred a great number of US Government awards including those for the work in the capacity of the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Adviser on political issues during the war in the Persian Gulf and for the trade-economic negotiations.
Richard Jones was born on August 26, 1950 in Shreverport, Louisiana. He knows Arabian, French, German and Russian languages. His wife Joanna and he have four children. As Mr. Jones informed his wife is going to work for charitable causes.
Translation � Insel C.V.
Gulbanu ABENOVA
ALMATY, Feb 3, (THE GLOBE)
�Oil interests do not always dominate in the political system. I think the issues of democracy development will step into the foreground more and more because namely democracy determines stability of this or that state�- one famous Kazakh political scientist stated on February 3 in Almaty.
Nurbulat Masanov, doctor of historic sciences; Valeriyan Zemlyanov, deputy of the RK mazhilis; Zhemis Turmaganbetova, representative of the International Bureau on human rights in Kazakstan and other democratic representatives paid a visit to the USA. The Kazakstani delegation was received at the US State department, OSCP representative office, USAID, National democratic institute, International republican institute. The democrats visited the US External Policy Council, National fund for democracy support, Institute of Central Asian and Caucasian research of John Hopkins University, Carnegie fund, World Bank of Reconstruction and Development, Political and strategic research centre. According to Masanov during the meetings with many politicians, state figures, scientists they discussed political formation of our sate, economic issues, national security, geopolitics, mental and cultural features. Zhemis Turmagambetova said the Americans permanently accentuated that there was a need for political life democratisation in Kazakstan, expressed moral support for democratic reforms, highlighted the importance of civil freedom and human rights. The international organisations are ready to back and stimulate democratic processes and reforms in our country. According to her American political elite was interested in how human rights, civil and political rights are being observed in Kazakstan. �They said financial and technical assistance would depend on human rights observance. If Kazakstan follows democracy it will get financial assistance, if not � no financial support�, she said.
Some journalists were interested how did communist Zemliyanov come to America in the capacity of democratic representative. It turned out that American public organisations were interested not in his political adherence but in him personally as a citizen. Valeriyan Zemliaynov is the only deputy of Kazakstani parliament, who voted against pre-scheduled election of the president. �He is a communist but stands for democracy. There is nothing strange as many of you remember a popular expression �Communism is the highest form of democracy� �, said Mr.Zemliyanov and added �I am a communist, I used to be communist and I will remain the same�.
Translation � �Insel� C.V.
How long will low oil prices last?
I am going to give some reasons why a barrel will never cost golden amount of $20. We offer you here some passages from an article that will appear in the next issue of the magazine Energy of Kazakhstan, colored monthly supplement to All over the Globe.
The main idea is that the end of the Cold War and consequent one-polar world are to be to blame for the long lasting reduction of oil prices.
Oil has always been a political matter. Moguls of the industry compensated for their political (in countries of strange regimes) and geological (exploration and so on) risks by low extraction expenses and selling oil at high price.
At first sight, it was the full-scale opposition of the Arab countries and Israel with the West that accounted for the energy crisis in 70s. The hand of Moscow as a global factor of the then bipolar world was one of the two hands pulling strings of a puppet- like universe that jerked like a person writhing in pains. One hand was unaware of the actions of the other one and in most cases undertook counter measures.
The situation changed dramatically when Communism and the Iron Curtain fell and the hand of Moscow withered.
By force of tradition, oil remained a political matter after the collapse of Communism. The price per oil barrel was influenced by the world�s expectations and hopes for the future. In summer 1997, the world felt ulcer pains of the Asian crisis through the fall of oil prices. By the end of 1997, they dropped from $22 to $10-12 per barrel. During all 1998, prices were very low, falling occasionally below the $10 level. The oil prices behaved like shares of an unsuccessful company.
Politicians, economists, analysts and journalists all over the world ask the same burning question: �How long will these low prices last? A year? Two? More?� For some countries including, to our regret, Kazakhstan it is a matter of life and death.
The author of the article assumes that oil prices may stay low forever. Oil will never be a simple product whose price is made up of expenses, rate of surplus value and taxes. It is the basis of power engineering, the basis of economy. The expectations in markets will always predetermine oil prices. But! They will no longer be determined by the global opposition of the two worlds Moscow and Washington.
The current low price of oil is the result of the world�s long relaxation after the Cold War. It means the move of the global economy to a more predictable world. The Asian crisis may be considered as a local event which has the same tendency to lower prices for mineral resources.
The Arab countries may change the tactics of survival. Instead of maintaining the output rate to peg oil prices they may choose to push competitors away by lowering prices and vigorously expanding their market share. It will dope up the world to think of new ideas of development (See Energy, October 1997).
A long-term oil price fall may turn out a complete crisis of the idea of living on oil for Kazakhstan. The exploration of many Kazakhstan�s oil fields, especially on Buzachi peninsula, was a matter of politics in Soviet times. These fields, containing heavy oil of rather low quality, are difficult to explore. They were competitive in former times because they were rather developed and the state of the market was favorable. At present the extraction of Buzachi oil is more a matter of politics than of business. To stop the development of those oil fields means losing them forever.
And most important, Kazakhstan risks to lose the opportunity to enter global network of oil business. The structure of the oil market will eventually become two-scaled. The global scale will be determined by the consumption of oil from the Gulf, local extraction and consumption will provide the rest of the market. Azerbajan delivers oil to Turkey, Russia provides for its own needs and sells some oil to Europe and so on. One can not expect any development and radical restructuring of the market during the next hundred years. Nobody would lay a pipeline from the Great Steppe to the West, East, South or northwest. The Great steppe will remain just a steppe.
To the author�s of the article (will appear in the next issue of Energy of Kazakhstan) mind such development of events is quite possible.
N. A.