Nurlan ABLYAZOV (THE GLOBE)
Sabit ZHUSUPOV (KISEF)
THE GLOBE and KISEF under the contract concluded with the Delegation of the European
Commission in Kazakstan is conducting a number of poles among Kazak experts concerning
the presidential election racing. Late in November we interviewed 150 experts in five
regions
of the country: Almaty, Karaganda, Petropavlovsk, Ust-Kamenogorsk, and Shymkent.
According to the experts, the leading social-psychological characteristics of Kazakstani
society now are anxiety, apathy and fear of the future. At the same time, in the nearest
2-3
years, they claim, Kazakstan will keep political stability. And yet, there are regional
features
of experts� opinions. Thus, a half of experts in Ust-Kamenogorsk and 20% of Karaganda
respondents admit escalation of inter-ethnic relations, while in the remaining three
regions
this figure does not exceed 4-7 percent. The issue of introduction of local
self-government
caused the most significant discrepancy in opinions. So, 73.3% of Ust-Kamenogorsk experts
hope for introduction of local self-government, while in Shymkent as much as 13.3%.
Majority of experts in all the regions expected the following candidates should be
registered:
Nazarbayev, Kazhegeldin, Abdildin. In this matter, in all the regions experts are partisan
to
this or that candidate, varying from minimum 66.7% in Karaganda to 93.3% in Ust-
kamenogorsk. Kazhageldin, as experts think, is a worthy candidate to be entered on the
registration list, he is supported by 50% of experts in Ust-Kamenogorsk and Shymkent and
66.7% in Karaganda. Let me remark that partisanship of Karaganda experts between the two
politicians is equal. At the same time, Abdildin�s rating is rather unequal in the
regions.
One may surely state that experts are puzzled with the fact of non-admittance of
Kazhegeldin
to election racing. As much as 15.3% experts admit that the ex-Prime Minister infringed
the
law.
The vast majority of the experts claim the fact of unequal access to media for candidates,
as
well as organization and information support in the election campaign. Moreover, the
situation of inequality in the regions, as the pole proved, is far more dramatic than in
Almaty.
It is interesting that President Nazarbayev as ally of equal rights for all ethnic groups
in the
RK is evaluated rather ambiguously by the experts. Thus, in Almaty and Karaganda the
overwhelming majority of experts consider him an ally of equal rights for different ethnic
groups, 66.7% and 76.7% as appropriate. These numbers are lower than in Shymkent
(13.3%), Ust-Kamenogorsk (20.0%) and Petropavlovsk (23.3%). In this connection, it is
interesting to compare expert opinions with student one: over a half Russian students in
Almaty and Astana believe that to gain a success in Kazakstan (see this issue � research
by
THE GLOBE, -Kazakstan and KISEF). As a result, less than 40% of Russian students
connect their future with Kazakstan, however in comparison with the pole conducted this
summer the number has significantly decreased.
And yet, 40% of experts consider presidential elections nest step towards democratization
of
the society. It is interesting that students agree to that.