Students on the elections of the President

It was major-general Pavel Novikov who urged us first to turn to the opinion of the youth.
Then, in June 1997 the General told us that �it had been decided� to rename the Komsomol
Peak the Nazarbayev Peak, and The Globe, in turn, for the first time made a poll among the
Almaty higher schools students. That first experience was extremely useful to us, and, as a
result, in spring 1998 we prepared the project entitled �The Young for the Future of
Kazakstan�.
Our survey focused the students of higher schools. It is students who will determine the
future of Kazakstan. These are Kazaks whose native languages are both Kazak and Russian,
these are Russians, these are people of other ethnic groups: Koreans, Tatars, Ukrainians,
Chechens, Germans, Jews, and Uigurs� They will live in this country and they will set the
life in this country.
We decided on higher school students, as they are the most dynamic part of the society.
Only highly educated people will be the key figures in the life of the state and the society.
They will come to the country management from business, science, and public life. In about
15-20 years today�s students of higher school will exert actual influence on the course of the
history of Kazakstan.
The results of our plot studies were far from being optimistic for us. Well, the entire society is
not too optimistic.
Students proved to be split in two different groups. The criteria of the division were most
various, ranging from the ethnic group (Kazak � not Kazak) to inhabitancy (townsman �
countryman, South � North). The students know the bribes problem not by mere hearsay:
30% of students in Almaty give bribes to their lecturers regularly.
Students have their own problems, youth ones. Ninety per cent of students tried drugs at
least once in life; yet, marijuana proved to be 3 times more popular that ecstasy in Almaty.
More than a half of students, i.e. 64%, heard nothing of President Nazarbayev�s Message at
all.
We think that the principal result was that the young people are concerned with the future of
this country, they are ready to discuss the issues faced by our society. The mature character
of students� answers and the unregimented character of their judgements in such serious
matters as democracy, family, freedom of speech, and many others have altogether urged us
to decide just on the higher school students as the object of our survey.
From spring to December 1998 THE GLOBE jointly with the Youth for the Future of
Kazakstan Public Foundation (please, do not mix with the Youth for the Future of Kazakstan
movement) have conducted a series of polls among students to get answers to many
questions. We were interested to know whether:
�    there is freedom of speech in Kazakstan? Does Kazakstan need the freedom of
speech? What mass media enjoy most confidence on the part of the young Kazakstani? (see
The Globe No. 30(249))
�    is it possible to achieve success in life? Is it possible to achieve it in Kazakstan?
What is necessary for that? (see The Globe No. 42(260))
�    does the youth take any interest in politics? Does Kazakstan need democracy? What
kinds of politicians do the young Kazakstani like? Who will be the next President of
Kazakstan? (see The Globe No. 49(267))
�    �fathers� and �children� in the eyes of students? Unregistered wedlock � is it normal?
What should the family be like? Why does a marriage get dissolved? (see The Globe No.
56(274))
At last, we conducted a new research. The elections of the Republic of Kazakstan President
planned for the 10th of January were the main question. This time we were interested to
know:
�    was there any necessity to elect the President beforehand?
�    What was the impact of the elections on the political activity of the college kids?
�    Who among the politicians sympathises with the young generation?
�    What is the attitude of the students to Nursultan Nazarbayev, today�s President and
to Akezhan Kazhegeldin, his main opponent
�    Whom will the youth vote for at the presidential elections?
Today we are glad that we have chosen higher school students and we have no doubt that
our choice was the right one. We worked jointly with the TSESSI-KAZAKSTAN Institute of
Comparative Social Research. We appreciate the help and useful discussion of Zarema
Shaukenova (TSESSI-KAZAKSTAN Institute) while working in Astana.
THE GLOBE thanks the Canadian Embassy in Kazakstan. We show appreciation to Mr.
Richard Mann, the Ambassador of Canada for his support of our survey.


Students:
Power and Policy

Students foretell win of Nursultan Nazarbayev in the presidential elections to take place on
January 10.
According to the survey most part of students will give their votes for the actual president �
72% in Astana and 55 % in Almaty.
However, the summer survey showed quite opposite results: only 38 %of Astana and 34, 3 %
of Almaty students believed in the win of the president.
While the estimations of the possibility of re-election of Nursultan Nazarbayev are rather
high, the estimations of the level of democracy in the republic are very low.
According to summer research 50% of Astana and 49 % of Almaty students think Kazakstan
is not a democratic or rather non-democratic than democratic state.
In December the results were already the following 43 % and 35 % of students in Astana and
Almaty respectively think that Kazakstan is however moving the democratic way. 30 % and
21 % of young people in both cities were at a loss to answer the question about the actual
way of the country and only 35 % consider that the republic is approaching democracy. The
students also think that the extraordinary election of the president would be of a dubious
character. 46 % of Almaty respondents and 40 % of Astana students answered �no�, 32 %
and 26 % respectively were at a loss to answer and only 34 % and 22 % of respondents gave
a positive answer on the question if it was necessary to organise extraordinary election.
Thus, here are the results of the December survey: almost a half part of students do not think
Kazakstan is a democratic state, about one third of all respondents do not even know were
we are moving. Mainstream of all students does not agree with extraordinary presidential
election. The fact that the students will nevertheless go to the election and moreover will vote
for Nazarbayev is very important against such a background. Vote for Nursultan
Nazarbayev!
What is the reason? First of all how he managed to obtain the first place in December after
only third place in the July rating of sympathy � 14%, while Kazhegildin was the first � 22, 7
% and Auezov � the second with 16, 1 % (see # 49 (267)). Moreover the president
outstripped his closest revivals (see table # X).
Second, how is it possible to gather 72 % of supporters in December, having only 43 % in
July, without leaving any chance for competitors?
Third, How is it appeared that our �heavy-weight�, ex-premier Akezhan Kazhegildin, leader of
the firs rating and the second - 10 % (after Nazarbayev in the list of candidates see # 49
(267)) found himself at the same stage as General Kasymov, beginner in politics.
We think that the reason lies in most recent actions of Astana. Forcing of presidential
election together with consistent ousting of the main revival of the acing president- Akezhan
Kazhegildin was the most decisive move of the authorities. By this step Astana demonstrated
ability to take resolute decisions and successfully realise them, which as they think
influenced the choice of students.
We think alarming symptom was that thanks to demonstration of power and force of the state
the number of the students wishing to become public servant after obtaining diploma
increased. We are concerned about this fact as in the western countries they start such
service after they had already reached certain results in business, science or public activity.
The capital saw the most considerable increase from 31% in July to 40 % in December. In
Almaty this figure did not increase so significantly from 22 % to 26 %. We think the reason is
move of the capital in Astana.
Besides, we also consider dangerous the decrease of supporters of local administration
heads � one of the indicators of the democracy. If in summer 84 % considered it was
necessary to elect akims, in winter only 57 respondents in Almaty and 59 % in Astana agreed
with this statement.
Demonstrating its power and to some extent stepping back of democratic principles in the
election campaign, the official capital provoked a number of alarming tendencies in the
student society, which we think may have very serious consequences.
Russian Students � Kazak Students
Students -Russians and Kazaks. Why? The problem of the Russians and Kazaks and,
sometimes, rural Kazaks, urban Kazaks and Russians is very important for all the students.

WHY, first of all,
THE RUSSIANS
AND KAZAKS?
Because, as our latest research and previous public polls (see THE GLOBE issues 30 (250),
42 (260)) proved, the most significant discrepancy in opinions is observed between Russian
student groups and Kazak ones. This alarming discrepancy makes this issue, maybe, the
most important for Kazakstan�s future.
Data of spring and winter public polls prove stability and constancy of this discrepancy
regardless of place and time.

DOES YOUNG GENERATION
ASSOCIATE THE FUTURE
WITH KAZAKSTAN?
Significant number of Russian students does not � this is one of the important results.
Meanwhile, in Astana this disagreement between the Russians and Kazaks is far more
drastic than in Almaty.
May. In Almaty 46% of Russian students do not associate their future plans with Kazakstan
against 14% of Russian-speaking Kazaks and 9% of Kazak-speaking Russians, while in
Astana these figures are critically higher: 62% of Russian respondents against 3% of
Astana�s Kazaks do not pin their hopes on Kazakstan.
December. Difference in opinions did not change at all. And yet, in Almaty it became much
stronger marked. In Astana as much as 39% of Russian students are going to stay in the
republic, against 86% of the original habitants, while in Almaty only 33% intend to stay here
against 72% of Kazak respondents.

IS ETHNIC GROUP
IMPORTANT IN
CAREER BUILDING?
Another alarming result: significant part of students belonging to any ethnic group considers
this factor significant to gain success in Kazakstan. Students realize that together with
individual characteristics the fifth �column� � ethnic group � that used to be such a critical
item in Soviet questionnaires plays an important role in building a career in Kazakstan,
though 6 years have passed since collapse of the communist USSR.
May. Again, like in the issue concerning plans for the future, answers of the Kazaks and
Russians in Astana are far different from those in Almaty. Thus, Astana�s Kazaks pay less
attention to ethnic group: 29% of respondents consider ethnic group a dramatic factor to be
successful in Kazakstan. At the same time, over a half Russians believe �the fifth column�
may infringe upon their career opportunities in Kazakstan � 53%.
The same number of Almaty Russian students gave same answers. Almaty Kazak students
show solidarity with their Russian colleagues and gave 47% in the public poll.
December. Almaty almost comes up with the capital in the issue of importance of the ethnic
group in career opportunity: as much as 63% of Russian respondents mark �the fifth column�
with the griffin of obstacle on the way of career building in Kazakstan, while only 34% of
Kazak students agree with them. If Almaty has drastic altering, then Astana keeps previous
positions: 55% of Russians and 26% of Kazaks consider ethnic group a critical factor in
career opportunity in Kazakstan.
We believe that the situation when a half of the students thinks that ethnic group a dramatic
point in building career in Kazakstan proves existence of ethnic discrimination in the country.
Students� answers are clear in this aspect.
Another conclusion, which one may infer basing upon the results stated above, is rather
pessimistic. If in May we stated the nearer to Russia the stronger disagreement between the
Kazaks and Russians, then in December we claim: territorial boundaries melt away and the
south overtakes the north in conflict between the Russians and Kazaks.

WHY RURAL KAZAKS
AND URBAN KAZAKS?
If the split into Russian students and Kazak students is stipulated by ethnic belonging, then
rural Kazak respondents are separated from urban ones due to language barrier, experience,
links and ideology.
Thus, in some matters Russian-speaking Kazak students join Russian respondents and their
answers differ from those given by Kazak-speaking Kazaks. Explanation of this �language
barrier� between the two groups of Kazaks may base on different mentality � in other words,
ideology of Kazak-speaking Kazaks come from traditional families, rural as a rule, on the one
part and �urban Kazaks�, for whom Russian language became native in the first generation,
on the other part.
Public polls prove that in some cases views of Russian-speaking Kazaks are close to
Russians, in other cases they join their Kazak-speaking fellows. The Kazaks are united,
regardless of their native language, in the issues concerning, first of all, state system of
Kazakstan, as follows:
-    38% of Russian-speaking Kazaks and 35% of Kazak-speaking Kazaks believe that
Kazakstan moves towards democracy
-    25% of rural Kazaks and 22% of urban Kazaks admit importance of �the fifth column�
in career opportunity in Kazakstan
Respond of the �title nation� is unanimous to the questions containing the word �Kazakstan�.
They react: it is our state.
On the other hand, identifying sympathy to our politicians, evaluating freedoms and choosing
job, urban Kazaks differ from rural ones.
First of all, the students divide in two groups expressing their sympathy to the two politicians:
Nursultan Nazarbayev and Akezhan Kazhegeldin. In Almaty only 7% of village-come Kazaks
support Kazhegeldin against 23% of urban ones, while 56% of Kazak-speaking Kazaks and
43% of Russian-speaking Kazaks stand for President Nazarbayev.
Strong positions of ex-Prime Minister are popular among urban Kazaks and close to Russian
respondents: 40% support the President and 33% ex-Prime Minister.
Russian-speaking Kazak students are very critical rather than Kazak-speaking answering the
question: �Do we have freedom of speech in Kazakstan?�, according to the May research.
Thus, 63% of urban Kazaks think that we have not or probably have not freedom of speech
in Kazakstan, while rural Kazaks gave the lowest result among all the groups � 54% agree
that there is not or probably not freedom of speech in the republic. As for Russian
respondents, 73% consider Kazakstani society non-free in terms of freedom of speech.
The Kazaks were not unanimous in choosing future job opportunity. A half of urban Kazaks
prefer to be employed at a foreign company � 46%, and 23% want to be public servants,
while rural Kazaks prefer public post to foreign firms, 38% and 23% accordingly. In this
question Russians are almost equal to Russian-speaking Kazaks � 42% intend to work for a
foreign company.

KAZAKSTAN: CHRONICLE OF DECEMBER

December 1
THE PRE-ELECTION PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN was officially launched. Only 4
candidates took part in elections. (Please see separately the chronicle of elections in the
same issue AT__TIME)

December 2
THE MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS KASYMZHOMART TOKAYEV OF THE
REPUBIC OF KAZAKSTAN addressed the OSCE two-day session on issues of security and
the forthcoming presidential elections in Oslo, Norway.

December 3
THE OSCE, THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE,
warned Kazakstan Thursday that it �could significantly spoil its reputation as the country
fighting for democratization� if next month the republic continues the preparation of
conducting elections ahead of schedule.
The OSCE criticized a decision taken by Kazakstan�s Central election commission regarding
exclusion of two candidates from a list of presidential aspirants �for insignificant
administrative infringements of the law�.

December 4
MICHAEL DEBEIKI arrived in Kazakstan on President Nursultan Nazarbayev�s personal
invitation.
His visit is targeted at assisting in appointment and training of the staff of a contemporary
cardio-surgical center in Almaty. In addition, Michael Debeiki organized the presentation of
his new book in Kazakstan.

The frontier launch Djambyl has been wrecked on the night of December 4-5 during storm
force 3.5. As a result of an accident there are no victims.

December 5
THE OPPOSITIONAL NEWSPAPER DAT ceased its existence. Debts for non-payment of
taxes became an official reason of its closure.

December 7
KHASEN KOZHAKHMET, a leader of the Azamat movement, held a special mass meeting
in Almaty.
The meeting was dedicated to the forthcoming 12th anniversary of uprising of the youth of
Kazakstan in December 1986.

THE OWNERS OF FORMER SOVIET PASSPORTS COULD PARTICIPATE IN THE
ELECTIONS. In Astana the State election commission announced that citizens of Kazakstan
who are the owners of former soviet passports without citizenship of independent Kazakstan
or those who have no time for a procedure of receiving new passports could participate in the
presidential elections on January 10 if they desire. The procedure of passport change is
prolonged till March 1 of next year. The previous deadline was December 31.

December 9
LEADING OIL COMPANIES SIGNED AN AGREEMENT WITH KAZAKSTAN. In Washington
leading oil companies signed the agreement with Kazakstan regarding making a feasibility
report under a project of constructing an oil-pipeline to Turkey. The $20-million feasibility
report will be funded by companies Chevron, Mobil and Shell already operating in the region,
a statement by the ambassador of Kazakstan in Washington says.

HIGH-RANKED OFFICIALS OF THE FSB AND KNB conducted negotiations. High-ranked
officials of the Russian federal security service and Kazakstan�s committee for the national
security conducted negotiations in Almaty where they discussed issues on safety measures
of transportation between two states.

THE LEADER OF THE �GREEN� PARTY TABIGAT MELS ELIUSIZOV, whose candidature
to the post of President of RK had been officially withdrawn, accused the government of
Kazakstan and President in multiple violations of human rights in a course of the preparatory
work to the presidential elections.

THE THIRD CONGRESS OF REPRESENTATIVES AND LEADERS OF THE GERMAN
DIASPORA OF KAZAKSTAN commenced its work in Almaty.

December 10
THE CAPITAL OF KAZAKSTAN Astana marked its first anniversary after proclamation of the
new capital last year.

EXPERTS ON ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION and representatives of the oil industry all
over the world gathered in Almaty to attend an international conference entitled �Oil
Storehouses: Prevention, Readiness and Reaction�.

December 11
THE CIVIL MOVEMENT AZAMAT announced the establishment of its own party in Almaty.
The new party will be led by former leaders of the Azamat movement Peter Svoik, Murat
Auezov and Galym Abilsiitov.

December 12
THE SPECIAL CANVASS TRAIN IN SUPPORT OF NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEV and
entitled �We know whom we elect� started from Almaty and Astana. The train subdivided into
two parts launched its pre-election show in northern and southern regions of Kazakstan.

December 15
THE OSCE SENT ITS MISSION TO KAZAKSTAN. On an invitation of the government of the
Republic of Kazakstan the Bureau for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the
OSCE sent its mission to Kazakstan with the purpose of conducting evaluation &
assessment and elucidating all aspects of the forthcoming presidential elections.

December 17
THE CONSTITUENT CONGRESS OF THE REPUBLICAN PEOPLE�S PARTY OF
KAZAKSTAN commenced its work in Almaty. The party�s programme and charter were
approved and appointments were made as well. Akezhan Kazhegeldin was elected as the
chairman of the new party�s central committee. The leader of Kazakstan Gaziz Aldamzharov
was elected as the leader of the party�s executive committee.

December 21
THE INDEPENDENT JOURNALIST Seidakhmet Kuttykadam proclaimed the establishment
of the new political movement entitled �Orleu-Progress� in Almaty.
It was also announced that representatives of Kazakstan�s intelligentsia would form the
greater part of newly proclaimed movement.

December 22
THE PRIME-MINISTER EUGENE PRIMAKOV OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION. Eugene
Primakov of Russia started its first official visit to Kazakstan as the prime-minister.

December 23
AN ATTEMPT OF A $840,000 CONTRABAND EXPORT WAS STOPPED. In the Almaty
airport representatives of the customs service and taxation police arrested an inspector of a
subdivision of the Almaty airport�s internal affairs department together with accomplices
under the attempt of the contraband export of $840,000 beyond boundaries of the republic.

December 24
AN AGREEMENT WAS SIGNED IN TOKYO. The agreement was signed in Tokyo
concerning the allocation of a credit on favourable terms amounted to 22 billion yens (about
$190 million). Funds are destined for reconstruction of an international airport in Astana.

December 25
Christmas!!!