In The Globe`s Focus

IN THE GLOBE`S FOCUS

New PM Tokaev Receives Low Ratings

Bakhytzhamal BEKTURGANOVA

President of the Almaty Association of Sociologists and Political Scientists

In a new public opinion poll of Almaty residents, a majority of the population expressed skepticism about the ability of a Cabinet headed by new Prime Minister Kasimzhomart Tokaev to lead Kazakhstan out of crisis. Just over half those polled had not yet determined an overall opinion on the appointment of Tokaev, who formerly served as Foreign Minister, while one third felt negatively about the appointment.

Results of the poll are detailed below. 580 Almaty residents were interviewed, 44% of whom were men and 56% women. Forty-one percent of respondents were Kazakh, 44% Russian, 9% other Asian nationalities and 6% other European nationalities.

What is your attitude to K. Tokaev�s appointment to the post of PM?

	Total	Men	Women
Positive	19.7%	17.4%	21.5%
Negative	30.1%	40.3%	22.1%
It�s difficult to answer	50.2%	42.3%	56.4%

Will the new Prime Minister and a government headed by him be able to lead the country out of crisis?

	Total	Men	Women
Yes	8.9%	9.9%	8.1%
No	57.3%	67.2%	49.5%
It�s difficult to answer	33.8%	22.9%	42.4%

Respondents were asked who they would prefer to be Prime Minister. Nearly half could not answer. Leading among the 10 proposed candidates were former Prime Minister A. Kazhegeldin and the new deputy G. Kasymov. An interesting trend has surfaced: as the current administration is increasingly percieved as stagnant, the ratings of disgraced former PM Kazhegeldin have improved. However, opinion ratings of another former Prime Minister, S. Tereschenko, presently in favor with President Nazarbaev, have remained low and fallen further since the recent Parliamentary elections.

Whom would you like to be the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan?

	Total	Men	Women
It�s difficult to answer	45.6%	36.9%	52.5%
A. Kazhegeldin	15.1%	16.3%	14.1%
G. Kasymov	14.2%	15.6%	13.1%
S. Kuttykadam	7.6%	7.0%	8.1%
B. Tursumbaev	3.1%	6.2%	0.6%
A. Pavlov	2.8%	4.7%	1.3%
G. Aldamzharov	2.3%	1.2%	3.1%
Z. Kakimzhanov	2.3%	3.9%	0.9%
U. Dzhandosov	1.7%	2.3%	1.3%
E. Utembaev	1.2%	0.0%	2.2%
S. Tereschenko	0.7%	1.6%	0.0%
Others	3.4%	4.3%	2.8%

Only six members of the new government headed by PM Tokaev were considered by the Almaty public to be doing a good enough job that they should not resign:

1. Prime Minister K. Tokaev

2. First deputy of the PM A. Pavlov

3. Minister of Labor and Social Protection N. Rodostovets

4. Defense Minister S. Tokpakbaev

5. KNB Chairman A. Musaev

6. National Bank Chairman G. Marchenko

Ratings of state functionaries

	Performs satisfactorily	Does not perform satisfactorily (and should submit his resignation)
1. K. Tokaev	51.8%	48.2%
2. A. Pavlov	50.4%	49.6%
3. D. Akhmetov	20.3%	79.7%
4. E. Utembaev	16.5%	83.5%
5. M. Yesenbaev	22.7%	77.3%
6. Zh. Kulekeev	16.0%	84.0%
7. Z. Kakimzhanov	39.0%	61.0%
8. V. Shkolnik	48.5%	51.5%
9. S. Mynbaev	17.2%	82.8%
10. K. Suleimenov	44.8%	55.2%
11. Ye. Idrisov	46.5%	53.5%
12. A. Sarsenbaev	36.9%	63.1%
13. N. Rodostovets	56.9%	43.1%
14. K. Kusherbaev	16.8%	83.2%
15. S. Tokpakbaev	57.9%	42.1%
16. B. Mukhamedzhanov	37.8%	62.2%
17. S. Burkitbaev	20.9%	79.1%
18. S. Daukeev	16.6%	83.4%
19. A. Musaev	55.3%	44.7%
20. K. Saudabaev	35.7%	64.3%
21. G. Marchenko	90.9%	9.1%

Conclusion

The poll results reveal that in public opinion, the Kazakhstani government suffers from a serious lack of qualified leaders. The ratings of statesmen prove that public trust in most of them has been exhausted. Nevertheless, these same people exchange posts among themselves, shuffling leaders between government ministries and different departments. It appears unlikely that public opinion will improve if the government merely makes structural alternations (such as reorganization of ministries and departments, and the redistribution of their functions) unless policies are reformed in content as well.