KABUL, July 29 (AFP)
Afghanistan�s Taliban militia sees a summer offensive it launched Wednesday as the key to total victory including the international recognition it craves, according to analysts.
The militia is focused on one outcome � destroying arch rival and military leader of the opposition Northern Alliance Ahmad Shah Masood, ending the five year civil war and winning international credibility.
Masood, ousted president Burhanuddin Rabbani and their ethnic-based alliance comprising of Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara and Turkmen ethnic groups control just 20 percent of the country, with the remainder in Taliban hands.
But the opposition is recognised by the United Nations and all governments, except for Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as the country�s legitimate government, despite being driven from the capital Kabul in 1996.
�The logic is if Masood can be defeated then the world will have to accept the Taliban as leaders of Afghanistan, give them a UN seat and deal with them officially,� one western military analyst said.
The militia�s desire for international recognition has been thwarted by widespread condemnation of its strict interpretation of Islam, particularly its treatment of women, and for giving sanctuary to alleged terrorist Osama bin Laden.
He is accused by the US of masterminding the simultaneous bombings of two embassies in east Africa last year.
The ethnic Pashtun Taliban is fighting for control of Afghanistan�s northeastern corner and Wednesday launched its summer campaign under a barrage of artillery fire, with tank and aerial support.
The opposition holds ground stretching from front lines 25 kilometres (15 miles) north of Kabul, across the Shamali Plains to the Panjsher Valley, and northwards to the Tajik border and eastwards to Pakistan.
Initially the offensive had been planned for Friday, July 9. But Taliban commanders said the start date was extended to the end of July due to doomed United Nations peace initiatives and because more troops were needed.
Asked to confirm speculation the Taliban had recruited volunteers from Islamic religious schools in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Yemen, Sudan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, one commander from Khost province said: �Yes, but you left out Chechnya.�
Independent sources confirmed Chechen Islamic troop support for the Taliban but added that the number of foreign fighters was small.
The commander also said the Taliban had three times raised its target for troop numbers, from 20,000 to 50,000 and then 100,000.
One Pakistan-based western diplomat said Taliban numbers were prone to exaggeration but a figure of 50,000 troops was probable and this was still double the highest previous estimate of the militia�s strength, put at 25,000 men in 1997.
Observers said the Taliban had been recruiting heavily in recent weeks, enlisting troops from within the country and from religous schools in Pakistan.
Traditionally Afghan conscripts are aged between 22 and 39 and for the well-heeled there is a choice of sending a son to fight or paying a tax.
But according to Taliban interpretation of Islamic law, anyone with a beard is old enough to fight. Sermons in local mosques say the militia�s war-chest is full and it is men that are needed.
Western sources said 5,000 young men were recruited in a recent drive in the eastern capital of Jalalabad while similar numbers were enlisted from nearby provinces.
Military analysts attached to foreign embassies in Islamabad said Masood had between 10,000 and 15,000 hardened troops and can rely on 40,000 men who are willing to defend their Tajik homeland from Pashtun outsiders.
And analysts say the Panjsher Valley, home to Masood and his troops, remains the key to Taliban success.
The valley is heavily fortified by the rugged Hind Kush mountain range, and recent visitors to Masood�s side of the frontline said they were impressed by the ethnic Tajik�s defence capabilities.
�He was very well dug in. Morale was very high. There are four defence lines across the Shamali, scores of new and reconditioned tanks and heavy artillery guns. They looked well-equipped and experienced,� one western observer said.
During the Soviet Union�s 1979-89 occupation of Afghanistan, only once did Russian soldiers venture into the Panjsher. Masood blew up mountain passes, cut them off from behind and massacred the troops.
The Russians never went back.
By Alessandro RAIMONDI
LUGANO, July 29 (THE GLOBE)
As every year �L�Agefi�, the reliable Swiss economic magazine, has just cast its 1998 rankink of the 100 most dynamic cities of the Confederation. Of course, most of them are only towns due to their dimensions and number of inhabitants, nevertheless Switzerland�s vitality comes from this middle size urban conglomerations.
Davos is the leader of the lot, benefitting of her status of sky resort and venue of the World Economic Forum that draws there yearly the mighty ones of the Earth.
The enchanting winter resort of Canton Grisons has toppled Baden from the summit, a position that the latter has been helding for many years.
Good third is Geneva, the only big city in the top 10, followed by Lugano, the financial center of Canton Ticino, which confirms her 1997 position, but sharing it now with Zug.
An incredible escalation has been made by Freiburg that from the 37th place has climbed to the 6th, and by Gossau of Canton St. Gallen, arising from the 38th to the 7th position.
The other four major Swiss cities are occupying intermediate places: Basel the 12th, Zurich the 16th, while the capital Bern and Lausanne share the 21st position. Their economic troubles have much contributed to their �L�Agefi��s severe judgement.
Canton Ticino, the Italian-speaking area of the Confederation, is represented in the ranking � which keeps into consideration not only financial and economic datas, but also sport, education and cultural possibilities � by the other two major centers, Locarno and Bellinzona. Their showing is rather poor, specially for Locarno, site of the international film festival, that from the 3rd place held in 1997 has dropped to the 12th. Only consolation the fact of sharing it with Basel, much bigger and important.
The capital of the canton, Bellinzona, is only 49th, but at least gaining one position compared to the previous year.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
© 1998 IPA House. All Rights Reserved.