Gulbanu ABENOVA
ALMATY, March 29
(THE GLOBE)
�From the professional point of view, the probability of oil and gas reserves is 20%. This is the maximum assessment of the strata which has not yet been drilled and is absolutely unknown,� a representative of the Offshore Kazakhstan International Operating Company (OKIOC) said on March 27 in Almaty.
Jeffry Paul, a production manager emphasised that it is too early to comment upon the availability of the Caspian oil, its volumes and quality, as the company is only preparing for drilling the first oil well.
The first drilling will be completed in about four months.
However, based upon the prospecting surveys, the probability of finding hydrocarbons is only 20%. US$ 150 million has already been spent upon prospecting and preparatory work. The total value of the project is US$ 400 million.
The fall of international oil prices has not influenced progress on the Caspian projects of the OKIOC. �Neither the agreement signed between the participants of our project and the Kazakh government nor our responsibilities have changed, and being are strictly fulfilled,� Mr. Jeffry said.
OKIOC experts confirm that the possibility of an accident occurring does exist: either from oil effluents or leaks of hydrogen sulphide. The representatives of the OKIOC consider it is impossible to avoid absolutely the risk of accident. �However, the risk should be brought to the absolute minimum,� Mr. Jeffry said.
The head of the Internal Connections Department claimed that the company had anticipated all possible ecological catastrophes that could occur while drilling. Subsequently all the required equipment and materials have been prepared and personnel adequately trained. �Because of the tremendous preparation work we have undergone, we hope that the effects of rejected hydrogen sulphide will be the absolutely minimal for the environment as well as for the personnel,� Nick Wood said.
The spokesman was asked to comment upon the announcements of the leader of the ecological movement �Caspian tabigaty� (see THE GLOBE, #19 (337) dated 12.03.99) regarding the irreparable harm to the Caspian Sea caused by the company�s activity. Specifically the movement claims that the OKIOC is responsible for the mass deaths of fish in the Chernyi and the Ural rivers last May. Oleg Staruhin, an ecologist of the company replied as follows: �Look at the map and see where the Ural is and where our drilling rigs are. Moreover, over the last year we have not conducted any work at all. With the same success you may blame our company for Atlantis� demise.�
Andrei Tsalyuk, Informational Agency of the financial markets �IRBIS�
Almaty
(Specially for THE GLOBE)
About the past
The last week in the Kazakhstan hard currency market completely resembled the previous one. Nothing new was observed either in the factors influencing the exchange rate or in the market operations and tactics of the market participators. Subsequently it is appropriate to begin this review with the summary of �IRBIS� agency, which is issued every Friday evening.
During the thirteenth calendar week at AFINEX 53 transactions were concluded on US dollars totalling US$ 17.86 million (the average volume of the auction session was US$ 4.465 million). The devaluation rate of the tenge, calculated at the average exchange rate, was 15.27%/year. In the previous week, 62 transactions amounted to US$ 22.490 million (with an average session volume of US$ 4.498 million). The devaluation rate was 14.31%/year. Due to the absence of both demand and supply, no transactions were concluded on the German currency and the EURO.
The similarity of the two weeks can be explained, first of all, by the same factor influencing on the banks� behaviour regarding the sector of hard currency circulation. The volume of spare cash available in the market remained constant.
In the author�s opinion, under the current circumstances, when the dollarisation of both people and the banks seems to be the highest, the only source of spare cash is the state securities (SS). Once the SS are reimbursed in a big volumes, (and the emitters are not going to increase the profitability of the SS), the hard currency market becomes more active.
When the SS are reimbursed slowly on the other hand, the circulation of hard currencies decreases. Though occasionally, profitable conditions in the distribution of new portions of the internal debt convince the banks to reinvest the gained amount into new liabilities. During the last half of a month however, neither the National Bank nor the Finance Ministry have offered especially favourable conditions to the participators - even taking into consideration the first emission of the interesting state Treasury liabilities of MEIKAM. Because of this, part of money inflow gained from the repayment of the SS left the sector of internal liabilities, penetrating the hard currency market and �replenishing� its volume.
In the twelfth week the volume of the repaid SS was tenge 2,240.0 million. Only tenge 2,093.1 million was borrowed by the emitents at the auction on placement of the internal liabilities. Subsequently, tenge 146 million left the SS circulation sector. The reimbursement volume in the thirteenth week was Tenge 2,937.5 million. Approximately 2.1 billion were invested to MEKKAM, MEIKAM, NCO and the notes. (Accurate data about actual volume of the last emission are not available, as they will only be announced by the National Bank on Monday. Hence the estimation will be conducted according to the announced volume.) Subsequently, about 800 million Tenge left the primary market of liabilities.
Both in this and the previous weeks the market was a little short of money. This shortage occurred when the banks did not face a lot of difficulties concerning the short-term liquidity, but at the same time found their operations restrained. The difference between 147 million and 800 million, which were mentioned in the above paragraph, is not particularly significant, but it is notable. Due to this shortage in the last half of the week, there was a little more free money than before, The tenge meanwhile was a little more pressed at AFINEX. Perhaps due to this reason the national currency devaluated a little quicker than it had done in the previous week.
After the introduction of the tax on dollar purchases, it can be naively expected that the result will be a regular tax inflow to the state treasury. But this is very naive. The persons dealing with the business described above, do not purchase dollars in the currency exchanges and do not pay taxes.
In the last week the government was still keeping silent about the projected tenge devaluation rate for this year. It�s a pity. But we can understand the officials, since this matter is serious and extremely responsible. Their decision must depend upon many factors, including the parliament discussions on the budget. But we are lucky, as is a photographer who puts a sheet of photographic paper in a developer and watches a picture appearing. As for me, I always liked this process. The image of the future Kazakh market is getting more and more clear on the photographic paper of consciousness of the market professionals -because, strictly speaking, the government is not silent.
The results of the poll of the professional market participants, conducted by REUTERS on March 26th show (and the author completely agrees with the participators� opinion), that most expected a devaluation of Tenge in 1999 of 16 to 20%. This is what we are observing now. Demonstrating a unique unity in their views; traders, dealers, brokers and analysts agree that 10% is already unreal and that in the nearest future the National Bank will just �declare a de facto trend.�
In the author�s opinion the most well turned phrase which can express the majority�s thinking is as follows: �If it (devaluation) is just a correction of the policy, �de facto�, it will not be dangerous.� Today�s de facto is a long-term trend of 19.6%/year from the beginning of the year. The medium-term devaluation trend for the last month is 20.3%/year. The short-term weekly trend is 15.3%/year. Such a prognosis of the monetary authorities seems to be real enough. How the dollar and tenge will behave will be revealed after some time.
Zarema SHAUKENOVA,
Director The Institute of Comparative Social Research
CESSI-Kazakhstan
(Specially for THE GLOBE)
The Institute of the Comparative Social Researches (CESSI) conducted a survey regarding people�s perceptions of different professions. The research was conducted from November to December 1998 in four countries: Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The research was executed in the form of personal interviews at the respondents� homes. The randomly chosen respondents of each country were all 18 and older. The total number of questioned people was 1000 persons in Russia, 1000 persons in Ukraine, 800 persons in Kazakhstan and 500 persons in Azerbaijan.
An analysis of the data reveals a limited number of professions named in all three questions. The respondents consider the most profitable professions to be an owner of a company (an average 28% in all the countries), a lawyer (17%), a bank employee (15%) and an accountant (11%). The most respectful positions were considered to be: a doctor (average 23% in all the countries), a teacher (19%) and a lawyer (16%). The top answers to the question �What profession would you like to choose?� was as follows: an economist (10%), a doctor (9%), a lawyer (8%) and a teacher (6%).
In Russia more often than in the other countries, a deputy�s position (5%) was mentioned among the most profitable professions. In addition, a substantial number of Russian�s (5%) believed that senior government officials (in the ministries, the town and regional administrations) are the most lucrative in society. A similar situation is observed only in the Ukraine, but to a slightly lesser degree.
In Azerbaijan, among the most profitable professions named were careers connected with the oil industry. This result is probably determined by the economical specifics of this region.
Doctors and teachers were most frequently mentioned in Azerbaijan, while in Kazakhstan people prefer economists and lawyers.
Thus, despite of the economic and social differences between the countries, their population is sufficiently unanimous in their answers.
Though there are some obvious peculiarities conditioned by the current state of the society and by the cultural traditions of each country, as far as evaluation of profitability and prestige of the professions is concerned, these countries may be considered a single area.
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