By Wallace Kaufman
ALMATY, Nov 1 (The GLOBE)
Six months ago most Americans were sure that in November 2000 they would have a choice between the sons of two famous politicians�Vice President Al Gore, the son of a famous Senator or Texas Governor George Bush, the son of President George Bush. Both had leaped far ahead of any opponents in the popularity polls and in raising the tens of millions of dollars necessary to run a presidential campaign. They may still win the nominations of their parties�Bush a Republican and Gore a Democrat�but recent events have shaken both parties, and could point to a deep change in US domestic and foreign policy.
Two relatively minor events�one last year, one in late October�signal trouble for the once confident front runners. Last year in the northern state of Minnesota which usually votes on the liberal Democratic side of politics, two well known middle-of-the-road life-long politicians fought each other for the governorship The winner was neither politician, but professional wrestler and former US Navy Seal (special operations force) Jesse �The Body� Ventura. Little noticed by the press, Ventura had won the nomination from the Reform Party. In 1992 billionaire Ross Perot started that party when he entered the presidential race, siphoning off 19% of the vote, mainly from Republicans, and allowing Bill Clinton to become one of the few candidates to win a presidential race with less than 50% of the vote.
Many political commentators in America have cast a cloud over Gore�s chances to win because of his connections to the Clinton scandals and what has become known in America as �Clinton fatigue.� What Ventura�s victory might signal is that in the next presidential race �Clinton fatigue� may not be as important as �politician fatigue.�
Polls say Gore�s challenger, Bill Bradley, still does better in a race against Bush. This may be irrelevant since Bush is rapidly losing support among Republicans and the first state primary (a state vote to commit its party members to a certain candidate) is still three months away�February 1 in New Hampshire.
The second small but important event that may change the presidential race happened on October 25 when a relatively minor Republican candidate abandoned the party and declared himself a candidate in Jesse Ventura and Ross Perot�s Reform Party. Pat Buchanan, who worked as a Nixon speech writer and television commentator, had long been the strongest voice against large numbers of immigrants, against many trade treaties supported by both Democrats and Republicans, and against foreign aid programs except when human tragedy or a very direct American interest demanded aid.
Buchanan�s departure from the Republican Party does two things. First, it strengthens George Bush�s challengers. The only woman challenge, former Transportation Secretary and leader of the Red Cross, dropped out in mid October, freeing up what certainly would have been a significant block of women Republicans. Buchanan�s departure will likely benefit Bush�s closest challenger, Senator John McCain.
McCain has already pulled within 12 points of Bush in New Hampshire, where Bush has less than a majority. Millionaire publisher Steve Forbes� is behind McCain, but he has begun an advertising campaign that will do more to damage Bush than McCain. On foreign policy, in ads and in debates, Forbes will emphasize a hard line against what he considers expensive international treaties that put American business and workers at a disadvantage and cost much more than their possible benefits are worth. He is against continuing or expanding the anti-balistic missile treaty and giving aid to North Korea in what he sees as a bribe to get them to abandon their nuclear weapons and missile systems.
In these respects, though not on trade, Forbes will carry on Buchanan�s foreign policy message. If Buchanan succeeds in winning the Reform Party nomination, he will appear in the nationally televised debates with the Republican and Democratic nominees. Buchanan is a powerful debater who could easily make any other possible candidate look weak and indecisive. His issues would have to be addressed by the two major party candidates. Even before the Reform Party decides, Buchanan�s move may force Republicans to try to capture the voters he had. They were no more than 10% of Republicans, but that 10% could decide who represents the party in November.
Republicans who want a strong stand against rogue states, terrorists, Russian pilfering of IMF funds, and large foreign aid expenditures with vague results may turn not to Forbes but to McCain. McCain flew many missions in the Vietnam war until he was shot down and suffered imprisonment and torture for five years. When the Vietnamese offered to free him early, he refused to leave the other American prisoners behind. McCain has also won some of the anti-politician vote by championing reforms in campaign financing rules.
If I had to bet on who would be fighting for the presidency in November 2000, I would prudently bet on Gore and Bush, but that would be only the most prudent bet. Recent events make it a risky bet. After eight years of Clinton administration, culminating in a bitter and unsuccessful attempt by Republicans to impeach the president, Americans are tired of argument and scandal. In a booming economy they give the President high marks as a politician, but an overwhelming Americans would not trust him with their family finances or their daughters. The media and vengeful Democrats exposed the unpleasant private lives of Republicans. Voters scorned politicians in general.
Americans want honest talk and tested virtue. They want a story they can believe in. Governor Ventura often said things that would have sent a Republican or Democrat to their party�s doghouse, but his candor refreshed and amused voters. As a former Seal, no one doubted his courage or his willingness to risk his life for his country.
Americans are very likely to dump the present front runners for no greater reason than the fact that they are politicians. Americans are looking for a hero or heroine.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
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