by Philippe Rater
BRUSSELS, Feb 28 (AFP)
NATO is facing a new test of its credibility in Kosovo in the face of Serb military operations and harassment by Belgrade forces of international monitors, as the oft-reiterated threats of NATO airstrikes look increasingly like empty words.
The strategy adopted by the Yugoslav authorities since the end of two weeks of difficult peace talks with Albanian separatists in Rambouillet near Paris, is causing growing concern among the NATO allies.
Yet despite their repeated warnings, the allies are anything but united on the wisdom of resorting to force.
It has long been Washington�s view, that the only language understood by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is that of force. For the United States, the obvious way to put a stop to Serb repression in Kosovo is to send cruise missiles to destroy Serb air-aircraft defences and the positions of elite Serb police special forces.
However among Washington�s European allies there are serious misgivings about the wisdom of such air strikes, particularly since there is also no clear consensus on what to do next.
�What happens the day after?� ask Britons, French, Germans and Italians, so far in vain. No NATO country is ready to envisage a massive deployment of up to 200,000 ground troops who would be needed to back up a campaign of aerial attacks in Kosovo, US Defense Secretary William Cohen admitted earlier this month.
The threat of recourse to force which the allies and NATO Secretary General Javier Solana have made repeatedly and - perhaps excessively - since October, has lost much of its credibility.
Last autumn, such threats did force Milosevic to ease repression of the Albanian majority in Kosovo and to withdraw the bulk of Serb security forces, making way for the deployment of observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
During the Rambouillet talks from February 6 to 23, the menace of NATO air strikes was again brandished to encourage the Serb delegation to show more flexibility. But the justification for such threats quickly receded in the face of the Albanian side�s inability to agree on a negotiating strategy and the hardline stance adopted by Albanian radicals at the talks.
This was �the weak point of western strategy�, one diplomat confessed.
The Serbs were thus able to get through the talks, without signing any agreement and at the same time without appearing to bear sole responsibility for the failure of international mediators secure an accord.
With the negotiations due to resume on March 15 in Rambouillet, NATO is today facing a new dilemma in view of the provocative attitude adopted by Belgrade which has massed troops in Kosovo, impeded the movement of OSCE observers and clashed repeatedly with armed Albanian separatists.
To launch air strikes now could undo what progress was made during the first round of negotiations. The OSCE would have to evacuate Kosovo prior to air strikes and it is by no means certain that Belgrade would let the observers back. To guess what Belgrade�s reaction might be, NATO need look no further than Baghdad�s refusal to let UN arms inspectors back after the US and British air strikes there in December.
There is also the thorny question of whether air strikes of this kind can be justified under international law; the United Nations has given no explicit mandate to NATO to launch air strikes against Yugoslavia. In October at the onset of winter, NATO did invoke the argument that air strikes would avert a �humanitarian disaster� but this no longer holds true today. Moreover, bombing a sovereign state which has attacked no other country appears hard to justify.
But doing nothing is not a satisfactory alternative either.
Nobody can be certain that when the Kosovo talks resume next month, they will succeed. The two sides are still far apart on key issues.
Belgrade remains opposed to the deployment of foreign forces in Kosovo called for under a draft agreement drawn up by international mediators and flatly rejects any idea of independence for the province. The Albanians have said the substantial autonomy they would enjoy under the agreement would merely be a stepping stone to self-determination and full independence.
A NATO summit is scheduled to take place at the end of April and worried officials say it will be difficult to approve a new role for an enlarged NATO as the guardian of security in Europe, until the problem of Kosovo has been resolved.
By Alessandro RAIMONDI
LUGANO, Feb 28
(THE GLOBE)
Fruitful year for Crossair, the Swiss regional airline, the year just turned into history, 1998. Calculations are actually being made but the company analysts cannot hide their optimism. It seems, in fact, that Switzerland�s #2 airway company has recorded for the first time an overall business exceeding the mythical figure of one billion SF! Profits, therefore, should be in accordance. In 1997, already a favourable year, on a turnover of 889,700,000 SF the Helvetic carrier profited some 43,200,000 SF. For sure between January and September �98 a 16% increase of business has been recorded, while overall costs have risen of only 9%.
Not only the lucky stockholders will benefit from the expected bonanza, but also the airline employees that will be shared among some 20,000,000 SF. The right figure will be known only in March. In �97 such benefit was of �only� 12 million Swiss francs.
The positive trend of last year has generated, during the first 9 months, 450 new jobs, bringing the whole workforce of the airline to 2,800, against the 2,301 units on the payroll at December �97. Other �acquisitions� are envisaged at Crossair where a spokesman has declared that salary expenditure will increase of 2.7% during 1999.
The positive results have materialized on the regular flights market where new connections have been added to the company network, while the charter segment has shown a drop due to the sharp decline of clientele on Egyptians routes following last year�s massacre of Swiss nationals at Thebes. The number of passengers has dramatically increased of a solid 26% compared to a much slimmer 9% average of other European carriers.
In terms of efficiency Crossair has reached a promising 51.6% since the occupancy rate on board its planes has increased of a significant 7.7%.
Crossair, together with its major sister Swissair, belongs to the Helvetic SAir Group and both companies have joined the Qualiflyer Group program, in company of other world�s favourite airlines, to offer their passengers higher frequencies, additional destinations and better connections. Swiss style, of course.
by Christophe de Roquefeuil
TEHRAN, Feb 27 (AFP)
Iran�s first local elections were acclaimed Saturday as a major advance for grass-roots democracy 20 years after the Islamic revolution but they also highlighted the bitter divide between moderates and the regime�s hardline clerics.
Although no official figures have been published for Friday�s landmark poll, Iranian newspapers said turnout was strong, particularly among young people who are among the most ardent supporters of reform.
The English-language Iran News described the election, seen as a key test for the reformist agenda of President Mohammad Khatami, as �the biggest experiment of democracy and decentralization in the Islamic state.�
�February 26, 1999, will henceforth be recalled as one of the important socio-political events in the tumultuous history of this land in which tyrants, traitors, predators and also patriots ruled for more than 25 centuries,� trumpeted the Iran Daily, another English-language paper.
Reformers had been hoping for a strong turnout from the nation�s 40 million eligible voters, particularly among the women and young people who helped sweep Khatami to his shock election victory in 1997.
�People�s rule over their own destiny is a manifestation of one of the revolution�s biggest ideals,� said Khatami, who is battling to get his reforms past the hardline clerics who dominate most of the country�s religious and political institutions.
Interior Minister Abdolvahed Musavi-Lari said Friday that voter participation in what newspapers said was the country�s 20th election since the 1979 revolution had been �heavy� although he gave no figures.
He said it would take at least a week to complete the counting of the ballots and publish the final results in all parts of the country.
Tehran, with almost 10 million residents, is the biggest prize in the election, followed by the four other big cities of Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad and Tabriz � all with about 1,000 candidates. A total of around 200,000 seats on 33,000 municipal councils were at stake.
�The people�s massive turnout at the polling booths yesterday reflected their enormous confidence and trust in the system,� said the conservative Tehran Times.
But the campaign was marred by violence and intense political wrangling with hardliners and reformers seeking to consolidate local power bases for next year�s parliamentary elections.
The Iran Daily said the elections took place �despite deep and dangerous differences between the two top factions, each with an entirely difference approach to political participation and rules-based governance.
�The so-called rightist camp made little effort to camouflage its opposition and sheer lack of optimism towards this new and necessary exercise,� it added.
The Tehran Times, expressing its concern over the political violence, spoke out against �rogue elements� seeking to damage the democratic process.
�Such a political phenomenon is detrimental to the political health and stability of our system,� it said in an editorial.
Some newspapers also pointed to imperfections in the election process itself. Kayhan International said that while there was a large variety of candidates, �the downside was that there were too many candidates, which made quite a number of lay people confused, and unable to vote.�
In Tehran some 4,000 people were standing for office, most of them unknown to the general public.
(The foreign-based opposition movement, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, said in a statement received in Nicosia that there were �numerous clashes� during the elections, which were �widely boycotted.�
The Council, which is dominated by the main armed opposition group, the People�s Mojahedin, said several protestors were killed or injured in Khonj, southern Iran, when the State Security Force and Revolutionary Guards fired at a crowd which was attacking official buildings.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
© 1998 IPA House. All Rights Reserved.