OPINION

Monitoring of the public Opinion

Bakhitzhamal Bekturganova

ALMATY, Jan 27 (Specially for the Globe)

672 respondents

After N.Nazarbayev�s inauguration a precedent of the pre-scheduled election is exhausted. However, the election topic including the presidential election is far from drain. We are on the threshold of the parliamentary ones. Nowadays many local specialists and western observers make a link between them.

One foreign expert said that even though Kazakstan had become a little bit clear for comprehension it, nevertheless, was not more understandable.

The big policy is still made by the �upper political crusts� and is closed nether for common people nor for off-site observers. That is why the political �ballistics� of the parliamentary election will be determined by the presidential ones. The motive of anxiety shining through moods of Kazakstani opposition members, western observers, and experts in terms of the forthcoming elections to the parliament is not unfounded.

Questions: how does the acting president profit the advantageous state of his leadership in election? How far will he go taking care of his own powerful future? Will he agree to restrain his authorities and real power or he will exert the compulsory law making use of his legitimacy? By which rules Kazakstani opposition will have to play? Will powerful parties and loyal to them political associations counting to get a ponderable number of seats in the new parliament through them, have starting advantages?

All this questions are possible to reduce to one: is the democratic parliamentary election possible in the country with legal and institutional restrictions on democracy. The parliamentary election will challenge not only opposition parties and associations but also the acting power in attempt to verify their adherence to democracy.

These are main results of opinion poll concerning election itself on its threshold.

Kazakstani community shows a great interest in the forthcoming election. According to results of the public opinion poll made by AS&P, an expected electoral activity of the urban population in the south capital might comprise 70%.

- Thanks to the active electoral campaign during the presidential election carried out by communists leader S.Abdldin, the communist party gains a stable popularity rating with the population. Every 8th respondent is going to vote for the CPK at the parliamentary elections.

- Popularity of pensioners movement Pokolenie is growing inevitable. Its reached a record number in the south capital � 48,1% of the respondents recognise their authority and political weight.

- As the parliamentary election approaches the most active opposition leader become more and more publicly recognised. Their politic activity should be the most profitable investment of the common electorate in implementation of the hopes for the better life. The five of the most authoritative and popular politicians, whose influence upon citizens has a tendency to grow comprise:

1. A.Kazhegeldin  2. I.Savostina 3. S.Abdildin 4. M.Auezov

5. M.Eleusizov

Confrontation nature of Kazakstani opposition stimulates political strength of citizens and requires transition to new political tactics from the president and its team. Otherwise the parliamentary election threaten with an obvious precedent.

Electorate

Will You take part in the voting in the parliamentary election? (% )

If in the course of electoral battles parties and associations manage to get vote of confidence with Almaty citizens, the electoral activity of adult people in the south capital might get to 70% and even more during the parliamentary election.

For which party will you vote (%)

Public movements

Assessment of the social movements activity made by citizens of the south capital (%)

Rating of opposition leaders

Results of opinion poll distributed in scores (%)