ASTANA, Sept 24
(THE GLOBE)
Out of twelve protocols and agreements to be discussed by the heads of the governments of the Customs Union, only nine were signed on September 24 in Astana. The packet of documents was concerning the further development and deepening of integration processes according to the provisions of the Agreement on the Customs Union and the Single economic space dated February 26, 1999.
Among other economic agreements signed at the meeting of the heads of the governments, we may separately mention the problem on unification of the legislation to create a Single economic space, increase of transportation quotes for Kazakhstan oil, as well as issues regarding annihilation of obstacles impeding the mutual trade.
Issues regarding development of the space, status of personnel of the Interstate Council and railway tariffs are still unsettled.
�The trend on reduction of the trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Russia is being observed recently,� Nurlan Balgimbaev stated during the negotiations of the official delegations from Russian Federation and Kazakhstan.
According to Mr. Balgimbaev, for the first six months of this year the trade volume has come to US$ 1 billion. This was promoted by both objective reasons (fall of export prices in the world�s market, the financial crisis in Russia) and subjective reasons (mainly, disconnection of Customs-Tariff and tax policies between Kazakhstan and Russia). During the negotiations the parties agreed on the necessity to settle the issues regarding interaction in the oil and gas sector.
According to Vladimir Putin, the volume of Kazakhstan oil being transported through Russian pipelines has doubled, and this volume will be increased several times. Besides, it is planned to construct oil-processing terminals in the Baltic states. �We have agreed that Kazakhstan will gain an equal share in the participation in realisation and works at this terminal. That is why, from the strategic point of view, our co-operation is long-term,� he stated.
The Kazakhstan Prime Minister emphasised that the Russian party had not reduced quotes for Kazakhstan oil. According to Mr. Balgimbaev, in the end of October it is planned to sign an agreement on increase of the capacity of Atyrau-Samara pipeline.
Nurlan Balgimbaev said that Kazakhstan was interested in the earliest realisation of the agreement on mutual supplies of natural gas according to �substitute� scheme, i.e. the supply of the Karachaganak gas from western Kazakhstan to Russia against the supply of the Russian gas to the Aktyubinsk and Kostanai regions. The agreement on frontier co-operation of the two countries for 1999 to 2000 was the result of the meeting of the Russian PM with his Kazakhstan colleague.
Gulbanu ABENOVA
ASTANA, Sept 23
(THE GLOBE)
�For the corporation it is an unprecedented action and the fact that we have started to return elevators, which make thefts of grain possible, to the state, proves that the role of the state is getting stronger,� the President of the JSC Product Contract Corporation announced on September 23 in Astana.
Nurlan Smagulov said that the Prodcorporation now fulfilled the order of the President of RK, which he gave during his tour to Kostanai and Aktyubinsk regions. According to Mr. Smagulov, they face many resentments of common peasants, as a part of the elevators belong to bad masters, who steal grain and worsen its quality. These grain elevators worsen the quality of grain and the volume of grain submitted to the Prodcorporation, which is to keep the state grain resources, are insufficient, he stated. He mentioned the Akkul grain elevator located in the Akmola region, as an example. This elevator lost 4 thousand 907 tons of grain. �Everybody carefully says it is a loss, I call this a theft,� he emphasised.
The President of the corporation explained the mechanism of the transfer of this grain elevator to the state possession, in details. The Prodcorporation brought an action against the Akkul grain elevator to make the elevator to pay a penalty of 22 million 729 thousand 900 tenge for its debt before the state resources. On July 14, 1999 the court of Astana transferred the property of the elevator for the above-mentioned amount to Prodcorporation. �According to the sentence of the court we are to receive the elevator�s property. This is very important and principal issue: the state has no preferences in this case. We, as participants had to apply to the court,� Mr. Smagulov emphasised. On July 22, 1999 bailiffs arrested the property of the JSC �Akkul�, which does not agree with this sentence and is going to appeal to the Supreme Court of RK against this resolution. On September 7 the court of first instance did not satisfy the claim of the JSC �Akkul�, thus it supported the interests of Prodcorporation as an plaintiff. Recently a bailiff of the Akkul region prepared the act on acceptance-transfer of the JSc �Akkul�. On the next day the heads of the corporation went to the Akkul grain elevator to appoint the director of the elevator.
All these actions prove that the state will very seriously protect its interests in the court, Mr. Smagulov emphasised. He said that regarding the rest grain elevators, which make the thefts of grain possible, Prodcorporation protecting the state interests will act in the same way as in case of the Akkul elevator. The President of the corporation announced that they had some more elevators, which are to be transferred to the state through the court. These are Kuibyshev grain elevator in the northern Kazakhstan, and Zhetigarin elevator in the Kostanai region.
According to Mr. Smagulov, today having gathered the harvest farmers bring nothing to the elevator, as old owners were bad, and new ones have not come yet. They keep grain on threshing-floors, and grain may rot there. Mr. Smagulov believes that people are sick and tired of lawlessness being observed at the grain elevators, but now they will see that there is the state, state organisations such as Prodcorporation, which are ready to render the services to the population only from the state point of view. Right after the Akkul elevator is transferred to the state, peasants will began to bring grain, the President of Prodcorporation is sure.
The state Prodcorporation is to gradually make a progress, in order to guarantee the safety of resources. Second, i
Sept 23 (Stratfor)
Citing the ongoing dispute over ownership of Caspian Sea oil, Russia�s Foreign Ministry announced on Sept. 20 that Moscow will not recognize Turkmenistan�s effort to extend its sovereignty over part of the inland sea. Russia�s protest, however, will not stall U.S.-backed efforts to build the Trans-Caspian pipeline, nor will it accelerate Russia�s own pipeline project in the Black Sea.
The legal status of the Caspian � and claims of ownership by Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan � have stalled the Trans-Caspian pipeline project. As Gazprom, Russia�s oil monopoly, is trying to outpace the U.S. project and supply gas to Turkey�s growing market, this dispute has worked to Russia�s advantage.
According to Gazprom chief executive Rem Vyakhirev, this is a race for control of supply that either Russia or Turkmenistan can win. On Sept. 21, Azerbaijani President Geidar Aliev explained to Russia�s Fuel and Energy Minister Viktor Kalyuzhny that the international status of the Caspian Sea would finally be settled, presumably in early October when the five Caspian states hold a meeting in Iran.
After that meeting, Russia�s attempts to contest the construction of the U.S.-backed Trans-Caspian pipeline will become irrelevant. The governments of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan will be able to reach a territorial agreement. Russia undoubtedly will protest, but will have no legal means to block the project further.
The Trans-Caspian project has also gained financial strength over its Russian-backed competitor. Support from Royal Dutch Shell, made official in August, secures the Trans-Caspian funding requirement of $3 billion. This makes Shell a 50-50 partner in the pipeline with the joint venture of General Electric and Bechtel�s PSG International. Protest or no, Trans-Caspian will be on-line in 2002, and will likely outpace Russia�s ambitions to control gas export to Turkey.
On the other hand, the Black Sea project is threatened by regional competition and internal politics. Fuel and Energy Ministry infighting and the conflict in Dagestan seriously hamper the schedule. If the Trans-Caspian goes through first, Turkmen state-run energy companies TurkmenGaz and Turkmenneft will pose a direct threat to Gazprom. They could even usurp Gazprom�s regional power.
In a broader sense, the cultivation of Turkmenistan�s energy sector challenges Russia�s traditional role in Central Asia. So long as the Trans-Caspian project maintains its schedule, Russia�s energy policy will have little effect on Central Asia, and will not subvert U.S.-Turkmenistan�s monopoly over oil exports to Turkey and Southern Europe.
ALMATY, Sept 24
(THE GLOBE)
�Motorola will soon open the joint two-side radio station assembling plant in Tashkent,� the head of the representative office of the company in Central Asia announced on Friday in Almaty.
According to Saadat Dzhekebaeva, the plant will completely cover the requirements of Uzbekistan and partially � of neighbouring Central Asian countries.
The company also considered the possibility to open a similar plant in Kazakhstan. However, due to some reasons Motorola preferred to open this plant in Uzbekistan.
In spring 1999 the company signed the agreement for US$ 4 million for supply of equipment for the centre of extraordinary situation (the Centre 911), which is being constructed in the southern capital. According to the agreement, the Centre 911 in Almaty will be equipped with products of Motorola company, and in Astana the similar centre will be constructed by the Korean company LG. According to Mrs. Dzhekebaeva, this project is under realisation.
Motorola started its work in the Kazakhstan market since 1994, when the company signed the contract for the amount of US$ 33 million for supply of cellular equipment for �Altel� company, which at the present time has about 30 thousand subscribers.
Another project of the company is the commercial exploitation of the global personal satellite communication system �Iridium�. Equipment (from telephones to satellite systems) for this system was produced by Motorola.
�The urgency of this event is indisputable, as Kazakhstan having vast territory has neither cellular nor ordinary wire communication in some regions,� she said.
In this year the company presented the new model (a cellular phone Motorola Timeport L7980), which may work in three GSM diapasons (900/1800/1900 MHz). This telephone is first of all intended for businessmen, who often have problems with cellular communication when they visit foreign countries.
Note. At the present time about 50 thousand subscribers of cellular communication have been registered in the republic. The share of the company in the Kazakhstan cellular phones market is about 65%. Almost all clients of �Altel� (AMPS/NAMPS standard) and 18% of subscribers of GSM standard use cellular phones �Motorola�.
Week volume of transactions for USD on KASE - $46.520 million (statistics, tendency)/ �IRBIS�, Sep.24, 99,
Elena Korpusenko, Andrey Tsalyuk/
For US dollar within the thirty ninth week (September 20 - 26) on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 982 transactions totaling $46.520 million at an average volume of trade session $9.304 million were made.
Tenge devaluation calculated at an average weighted market rate, is evaluated for the week by a trend of 121.3% p.a.
In the previous week 187 deals totaling $73.600 million at an average volume of session of $14.720 were made. Rate of tenge devaluation has made during this period 22.4% annual.
In comparison with the previous week the rate of national currency devaluation has grown 5.5 times. Significant decrease of the day average volume of transactions, in opinion of the IRBIS analysts, is connected mainly with decrease of exporters� dollars supply.
The rate of tenge devaluation against US dollar, calculated on the September 24 average weighted market rate, makes 89.7% p.a. on long-term tendency (from a beginning of the year) and 66.8% p.a. on intermediate (last 30 days).
For deutsche mark 9 transactions totaling DEM 110,000 were made. The rate of mark increased by 1.9%, that corresponds to week�s average rate of tenge devaluation of 96.3% p.a.
For Euro 7 deals totaling 60,000 Euro were made. The European currency rate increased by 3.7%, that corresponds to week�s average rate of tenge devaluation of 192.1% p.a.
Features of the week: daily acceleration of growth of dollar rate, high activity and increasing nervousness of the exchange market, fast growing of the dollar quotations, insignificant supply of the foreign currency earnings by the exporters, rather high price of short money and complete loss of investors� interest to the not indexed State Securities. Also it is necessary to add daily, beginning from Tuesday, fall of trades volumes.
Revelation of the week: inefficiency of measures undertaken by the National Bank for stabilization. Usually such measures influence on the market and help to stabilize the USD rate.
Results of the week: extremely high, almost agitate devaluation expectations, almost �overheat� market, and expectation of the active, market or administrative, actions of the National Bank.
Anything essentially new happened in the market in comparison with the previous period. There are no new factors, which could provoke an additional demand for dollar.
The only one new negative - absence of any information about road show results, which was conducted by Kazakhstan in Europe and USA for preparation to placement of the third Euronotes transh. The attempts of the IRBIS to receive the information from the participants, were cancelled by �the Information is confidential�.
It does not mean, that the issue will not held. But the market is nervous.
There are no any comments from the representatives of the authority and the National Bank.
It is impossible to speak about increase of demand for dollar in absolute term: volumes of trades have been reduced day-to-day. The fast growth of the dollar rate was stipulated by prevalence of demand over supply, and no more. And obstinacy of the market operators, which are not wishing to transfer free means in the State Securities sector from the currency one, were stipulated only by absolute reliance that dollar will grow. Therefore observed situation is caused in the greater degree by the psychological factors, rather than economic.
But the action of the psychological factors occurs in beneficial situation: for a long time market was saturated with tenge, which could not be claimed by the real economy. Therefore, the 1.5 times increase of the money supply from the end of June has resulted only in growth of the National Bank foreign exchange reserves, and has not caused (and could not cause) neither a real decrease of the percentage rates, nor desire to credit the industry, nor decrease of the devaluation expectations. Occurring is the result, natural and expected by the market participants, of the financial policy carried out during last 1.5 months. �Bomb�, about which the dealers spoke in middle of July, has worked.
By a weekend the market makes inconsistent impression. On the one hand, the dealers are going to play upwards. And that is promoted by reception in the Friday�s evening of 3.1 billion tenges for the earlier purchased notes of the National Bank, and also by cancellation of Friday�s indexed notes-14 placement. On the other hand, reduction of trades volume to a minimum (in the current conditions), sharp grow of spreads and behavior of separate banks on Friday�s trades speaks about a dealers caution. The opened long dollar positions already have a big potential yield. It is necessary to fix the profit. The powerful interference of head bank of country in the Monday�s trade is rather probable, but� The �crouch start position� is justified, expectation and attentiveness are urgent.
Therefore, IRBIS forecast from the next week: further strengthening of dollar, but with possible and insignificant correction of the rate downwards on Tuesday and Wednesday. More cardinal correction of a dollar rate can be caused only by administrative measures of the National Bank: by decrease of allowed currency net - position of banks of the second tier, by increase of the share of obligatory sale or by other measures.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
© 1998 IPA House. All Rights Reserved.