Syui Hoei-Fan
Aspirant, Faculty of International Relations, al-Farabi Kazakh State University
Preferences and intensity
When we talk about public opinion, it is important to understand what exactly we mean. According to American scientist V. Key, public opinion is the will of a large group of people, based upon which the government takes a political decision. In other words, public opinion is a combination of a specific number of opinions, for the government�s interpretation.
During the research, we should first of all pay attention to some points, complying with the traditional approach to public opinion. Public opinion always has an element of preferences and intensity. With the help of the first one we may check whether a person supports or is against a definite political party, candidate or policy. With the help of intensity it is possible to determine the population�s activity and its firmness of thoughts. These two sides are equally important.
Democratic policy is usually considered the expression of the will of the majority - meaning peoples� opinion on the whole, without consideration of the intensity of in which the opinion is expressed. In fact, the intensity of the will is not less significant than the people�s preferences are. In other words, the activity of the minor part of the population may influence the whole policy. Hence, it becomes obvious that the democratic policy is not necessarily the policy of the majority of the people. For example, during the American Presidential election campaign of 1984, 60% of the electors supported Reagan, while 40% voted for his opponent. Under conditions of the equal resolution of those who took part in the election, Reagan won by a ratio of 3:2. But if Reagan had been supported only by a half of the participating voters, and his competitors had received the rest, the result of the elections would have been different, namely 4:3 in favour of his opponent. Thus, history proves again, that sometimes the resolute minority may win the inert majority. That is why the governments should know what the preferences of the people are and to take into consideration the grade of people�s activity. Actually the total poll rather reveals the degree of the electors� activity, than the quantity of �for� and �against�.
The beginning and development of polls
Polling methods were known in Ancient Greece, however they only became widely used in the 19th century. In 1824 in Pennsylvania during the pre-election Presidential campaign, one of the local journalists openly asked the electors everywhere to vote for the offered candidate. Beginning from that time, during every election newspapers and magazines send their questions to their readers to clarify public opinion. At first these actions were of a local character and did not touch upon the problems of the entire state. Only much later did such research arouse the interest of the authorities and society.
In 1895, the chairman of the Statistical Committee of Norway A. Kaiir during the Committee�s annual international conference, for the first time presented before the audience the results of the public poll. In the 1920s, polls were conducted in the trade markets and through the press. From 1916 to 1932 the American magazine, �Literary Digest�, sent about 20 million questionnaires to its subscribers to conduct a poll regarding the Presidential election. In reply to the sent tests, the Publishing House received more than 5 million filled questionnaires, due to which the accuracy of the election prognosis came to practically 100%. However in 1936, the prognosis of the Publishing House was mistaken. According to the calculation of the magazine, the candidate of the Republican Party M. Lendon, the Kansas governor was supposed to collect 59% of the votes, but was in fact supported by only 37% of the electors. The election was won by Roosevelt. Within a year the magazine was bankrupt.
Apart from the publishing house �Literary Digest�, beginning from 1935 in USA Jorge Gallup, Elmo Rouper and Archibald Crossly began to conduct their own polls. Unlike �Literary Digest�, which polled the highest strata of the society, these men took into consideration the data of the national US census: the share of urban and rural populations, distribution of the population in geographical zones, economic status, sex and age. As a result, in 1936 based upon the opinion of the representatives of middle and lower strata of the population despite the fewer number of the people polled people, they could accurately predict Roosevelt�s victory. While Roosevelt actually received 60.7% of the votes, Rouper predicted the results of the election as 59.4%, Gallup and Crossly 53.8%.
From that time the representative poll was widely used, having become a popular theme of discussion. At present more than twenty democratic states, including Great Britain, Norway and Taiwan, use the method of J. Gallup and have private subsidiaries of the Gallup Institute. These subsidiaries get in touch with the many centres on study of the public opinion in USA, earning annually hundreds of millions dollars. Such polls are aimed at studying the political situation and demand for products in the markets. Often the poll results regarding public opinion on political problems are published in the newspapers.
Simultaneously, political parties and statesmen use these results as weapons against their competitors. The Republican and Democratic Parties in USA have prepared a number of specialists, who skilfully analyse the results of the poll to gain advantage for their candidate. For example, using these methods Ronald Reagan twice won at the Presidential elections in USA in 1980 and in 1984.
In a wide meaning, the poll of the public opinion is a micro-poll of a specific part of the population with its further interpretation for the wide strata of the society. In other words, it is study of the people�s thoughts. Practically, the poll of the public opinion and selective poll of the public opinion are often interpreted as synonymous.
Degree of the poll influence on political events
From the time when the positions of the social poll in the modern society became stable, the community has come to the conclusion that polls substantially influences policy. However, everybody wonders, how much the poll influences the policy. In this context two question arise: first, will a State functionary use the results of the poll to make the governmental course comply with the public opinion? Second, may the poll results make the electors �embroider ornaments on brocade�, i.e. may neutral electors vote for a potential winner? Unfortunately, it is difficult to give accurate answers, as free electors may not come to vote at all, thus expressing their indifference in to the elections.
According to the Gallup Institute, the public poll is a continuous committee of the people�s representative, which is why the government should take into consideration the poll results. However, not all scientists agree with this thought. For example, L. Rogers and his followers think that poll results are not so exact to predict the events, and sometimes these results provoke people to inadequate actions and negative deeds. Besides, in modern society, governments face many complex problems, which are often misunderstood by the common people. That is why the democratic ideals are pure idealism.
Thus, the followers of this theory state that the poll is not able to influence the election results. Besides, usually the elector receives information about leadership of a candidate watching TV news, over radio or from newspapers; hence he may simply not come to the voting. To prevent this, in France for example, they introduced a law that prohibits the announcement or to publication of results of any poll results two weeks before an election. Unfortunately, until now, only a few countries have followed the French example. Despite the essential shortcomings, the majority of scientists evaluate public opinion polls as a reliable method to reveal the people�s opinion and determine it as a key moment in following the democratic policy.
(To be continued)
(Continued from # 39(357), 40 (358))
Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova, President of the Association of Sociologists and Politologists
ALMATY, May 19
(Specialli for THE GLOBE)
A special type of feudalism � �the feudalism of profitable posts� (Weber), which was characteristic of the Orient despotic systems, was taking shape in the Kazakh society. The patrimonial and feudal systems did not have any rigid partitions. The later had a vague and unstable character. The patrimonial system was easily replaced by feudal �separatism�. Khans and sultans played the role of feudal lords (or semi-feudal).
The vassals� recruitment channel opened a comparatively easy access to the secondary sources of the redistribution of the goods and resources. Despite the fact that the vassal relations were based upon an agreement, they also did not create any grounds to develop the �capitalistic individualism�. First of all, it was caused by the fact that a consumer capacity of this social stratum depended upon the closeness to �feudal distributors� of tangible goods and services and was determined by a profitable post in the �governing-submission� relational hierarchy. Unlike European feudalism, which strengthened vassal faithfulness with the �len� right, �the feudalism of the profitable posts� knew neither vassal faithfulness, nor any other legal norms, except the patrimonial ones.
The patrimonial legal system placed the powerful stratum of the Kazakh tribal noblemen in the front line of the fight for power.
The fight of the two patrimonies: non-national �ak-suyek� and national �kara-suyek�, subordinated according to the social structure had a double character. Inside each stratum it had hidden and obvious forms. The fight between strata was always hidden due to the formal observation of the subjects� loyalty to the dynasty.
Interrelations of the �ak-suyek� (khans and sultans) and the high stratum of the �kara-suyek� (Kazakh tribal noblemen) were of the �governing-submission� relations based on the mutual �silent� agreement, profitable for both of the parties. The Kazakh noblemen promoted themselves such relations with the authorities, until that satisfied them. That is why power of �the ak-suyek� is rather not a class� property, but the ratio of the forces, a balanced �exchange rate� between the two extreme positions of the political field: the sultanate and its vassals. The �silent consensus� predetermined the legality of the power. The latter existed only due to the Kazakh noblemen recognised its power, authority, usefulness, which first of all were profitable for the noblemen.
The khans� authority was rather nominal, as it needed a powerful intermediate for its establishment. The authority of the sultans descended from the �ak-suyek� and the noblemen from �kara-suyek� was more real, as it did not depend on the intermediate links. Well, the consensus and legality of the khans� authority were not independent and fixed. The latter was possible only if the vassals agreed. The khans� power was first of all profitable for the noblemen. When a khan�s power became tyranny for the noblemen, the khan lost their support and his own legality. His post was occupied by another person from the �ak-suyek�.
Though the social structure of the Kazakh society was based on the personal dependence, the form of these relations was democratic in a way.
There were elected khans� posts and ritual procedure to expose the candidates to the khan�s post to �the electorate test� proves that nicely. At the big meeting honourable elders raised the khan on a white felt. The felt and the khan�s dress were cut into small pieces, which were to be given to the participants of the meeting. All the khan�s cattle was taken by the same people. This procedure was called �khan-talau�, that meant �robbery of the khan�. Later everything was restored with excess.
The �khan-talau� phenomena has a double meaning. On one hand, it symbolised a democratic structure of the society, where sovereignty belonged to the meeting of the authorised representatives of the families and tribes who governed the people�s fate (�oryltai�). In the traditional society the people�s �plebiscite� was expressed in an original and rather a conventional way. The tribal noblemen appropriated (under a silent agreement of the family members) the right to be �authorised� by the people�s will and to entitle the khan with power to govern the people during war.
In peaceful period the Kazakh clans did not need the khan�s headquarter and lived independently. The border of the tribal union was the same units, hence the character of the social organisation of the Kazakh society was military. It was represented by numerous separate small military units headed by the sultans. The main principle of the Kazakh society was defence-offensive union (fratrya), which was rapidly cancelled when the war stopped. Each member of the clan was a member of the society and simultaneously a worrier. That is why, on the other hand, the �hantalau� phenomena symbolised �the positional charisma� based on the believe that the candidate to the khan�s post was the chosen and courageous one.
�The positional charisma� was possible in a military camp only, and was, as a rule, short. The charisma is determined by the majority of the researchers following Weber, as an extraordinary power based on an individual authority. This authority was based on exclusiveness of separate persons and was proportional to a degree of the expressed people�s will.
�The positional charisma� due to its exclusiveness, every time revealed its insignificance and required to be fixed institutionally. One of the first political power institutions during the period of nomadic democracy in the Kazakh society was the institute of batyrs. During several centuries (from the 15th to 18th) the institute of batyrs guaranteed the legal way of reproduction of the charismatic authority as a kind of �revolution� (military) dictatorship. That institute was like a steadily working �escalator� lifting people, nominated by war heroics, upstairs (to the powerful structures).
However, it should be mentioned, that the social stratification of the military-nomadic society had no constant direction. War, violence, robberies, natural calamities provoke strong changes in social structure. Social status of almost all the groups of the population was unstable: rises were replaced by falls, and vice versa.
The presumption of the right of a powerful one (the right is that man who is stronger) was an excuse for social inequality, which was perceived by both the rulers and their subjects as the natural order.
The institute of batyrs was the result of the national-psychological character of the people, whose style of life was formed during military campaigns, and moving to other places all the year round. In the folklore the word �Batyr� became the personal name. The tradition to give children this name was the cultural-linguistic expression of the growing influence of batyrs.
The institute of batyrs being the channel to recruit the military-political elite, protected interests of the latter effectively. On one hand, this institute secured prestige and authority of the power. The people considered the power to be a victor, as it proved by military successes its ability to translate interests of this group into the language of the national interests. On the other hand, the institute of batyrs had a repressive function of the authorities.
The charismatic power of the batyrs was outside the economy. This power gave up the rational order and introduced tyranny enlightened by the tradition. This power had a meaning only under extraordinary war conditions. Thus, this power created and maintained such conditions.
The main way of existence of the Kazakh society during the heyday of the batyrs was military invasions, robberies, civil wars (�barymty�). Such a way of economy resulted in hungry and poverty, destruction of economy. The successes of the institute of batyrs placed them before the economic problems and led to degeneration. Capturing power, khans, sultans, batyrs had to restore the social order and hierarchy, i.e. they had to restore �management according to rules� which they had liquidated.
Thus, a social structure of the society was initially asymmetrical one: the minor class (rulers) took the superior position in the society and symbolised the state power; the maority of the population (�kara-suyek�) were submitted and formed the civil society. The terms �ak-suyek� and �kara-suyek� were the products of the political classification of the relations �governing-submission�.
The position of the above mentioned groups on the social space was determined, first of all, by their positions in policy. The groups were divided into those who �did the policy� and those who submitted it. Consequently, the stratification process in the Kazakh society depended on their relation to the power.
Both of the segments of the society (�upper� and �lower�) were the class-hierarchy complexes. Inside each the complex and between them, there was a continuos fight for possession of the power attributes (rights and privileges). However, this fight did not lead to class antagonism, and was regulated, as rule, according to the customs and traditions.
There was no private property of land as �the first condition of saving the surplus product�. Land was used by the tribe. Consequently, there was no stratification based on private land.
The class division of the Kazakh society was historically and logically based on its tribal organisation, which was the hierarchy of the clans and tribes. That is why this social stratification process did not damage, but fixed the tribal structure of the society.
During the all period, preceding the joining of the Kazakh society to Russian empire (the end of the 18th century to the beginning of the 19th), its social structure was practically unchanged. The arisen new relations were weak and did not lead to creation of new social groups. Stagnation of the social structure was a deterrent of economic development, prevented from development of the rational right and rational capitalistic manufacturers.
Only the privileged groups could accumulate their wealth on the basis of the private-family property of cattle, the other social strata continued to live in the tribal system.
Absence of any significant changes in the social structure of the Kazakh society till the 19th century is explained by stable relations of personal dependence based on blood consanguinity. After Kazakhstan was included in Russia, these relations changed their form only: blood relationship was replaced by the clientele links. That was a new, but again personal type of dependence, which again had a vertical structure of the �governing-submission� relations and did not create an additional �horizontal of social exchanges�.
Rashid DYUSEMBAEV
ALMATY, May 27
(THE GLOBE)
Azerbaijan continues to seek ways to further integrate with NATO, aiming to become a member of the alliance, the country�s deputy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on May 26 in Baku.
Such a development was a surprise. Recently Baku steadily and strictly followed the definite policy of becoming closer to NATO. The country announced that it was leaving the Treaty on Collective Security and called for the placement of NATO bases in Azerbaijan.
According to many experts, the Caucasian republic has practically no chance of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation; in any case it will not occur for next few years. Let�s see why.
The main argument of the Azerbaijani authorities is the Russian threat, as this country provides Armenia with the up-to-date weapons. But it is noteworthy, that the Azberbaijani President Geidar Aliev publicly refused an offer by Moscow to supply similar weapons to his country. This jesture was perceived as an open sign to the West.
At the same time, the most significant problem preventing Azerbaijan to join NATO is the absence of any serious counterbalances to Russia. Against the background of the NATO unsuccessful military operations in Yugoslavia, that strengthened the role of the Kremlin in the international arena, the West does not need a further deterioration of its relations with Russia.
Besides, Azerbaijan actively uses the interests of USA and Europe in the Caspian region. However, at the present time the euphoria caused by the Caspian resources has gone, as these resources do not seem as attractive as before. Nor we should we forget about the powerful Armenian lobby in the USA.
If we remember how quiet and chilly Washington treated the announcement of the Azerbaijani officials concerning necessity to place the NATO military bases in Azerbaijan, we may assume that this time will be any different.
By Alberto MENGONI
(THE GLOBE)
�Beginning of all beginnings� is how Dostoevskij has classified Aleksandr Sergeevic Pushkin, the lyric and vigorous author of �Evgenij Onegin�, the novel in verses considered one of the greatest operas of the world�s literature.
A poet, this son of Holy Mother Russia, whom all fellow authors form Gogol on owe something or, to put it with Apollon Grigorev, �all�. So powerful in fact has been his influence on the Russian language, that while still dissertations were carried on among academicians as for the kind of language to be used in prose and poetry, Pushkin was unwrapping the word exposing it, nude and simply, with the popular, inner, genuine meaning attached to it. A discovery, indeed ahead of times, that made available a whole language for art purposes.
 |
But the greatness of Moscow�s Pushkin, where he was born on
May 26th, 1799, has not only been enphasized by his intuitive perception of the need to
unframe the artistic way of expression, but also by the polyhedric, versatile mastery of
styles that has characterized his �opera omnia�, a towering effort produced in only 37
restless years of life. Precocious poet, Pushkin is published first when he�s only 15 and still attends the prestigeous imperial Lyceum of Carskeo Selo (today�s Pushkin), the higher school that tzar Alexander I wanted to be the forge of young aristocrats for filling the bureaucratic needs of the empire. |
There he met Kjuchel�beker and Del�vig, also students, and gives proof of his ability in French and Russian and hints of his idiosyncrasy for discipline. However, at 18 young Pushkin, graduated from the Lyceum, is given a post at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in St. Petersburg which allows him to wander in the futile lifestyle of the capital. His uneasiness drags him into attending liberal circles such as the Green Lamp Society, from where the 1825 revolt of Decembrists erupted. His simpathies, of course, were all for those liberal movements like Freemasonry which tended to ease the autocratic way of the ruling Romanov tzars.
His daring expressivity made him known to the court that after his publication of �Ruslan and Ljudmila�, a revision of an ancient popular-epic theme, most favourably welcomed by the public, �exiles� him at Ekaterinoslav (today�s Dnepropetrovsk) and later to Kishinev in Bessarabia. Really Pushkin has only been a friend�s intercession away from being sent to Siberia to pay for his odes to freedom that irritated tzar Alexander I.
The exotic south of the empire contaminated the young artist that produces in those years, 1820-�23, and in those places, dramatic poems, the �southerners�, inspired by their folklore, history and tradition: �The prisoner of Caucasus�, �Bach�isaraj�s fountain�, �Gypsies�. But also his liberal attitude brings him in contact with another liberal organization, the �South League� whose members like masons and Dekabrists, will never fully trust him, so much so to let him out of their conspirations. The poet however will be faithful all his life to those ideals.
At Kishinev he reads for the first time Byron and is struck by the spleen of his characters, so Pushkin, who will influence the Russian school, was influenced by the British author. It�s right there, in fact, that Alexandr Sergeevic writes the first chapter of his 5,541-verse �Evgenij Onegin�.
Rescued from his uncomfortable destination, Alexander I sends him to Odessa as secretary of the local governor general, count Voronov. Pushkin gets back to life again and falls in love twice in that year (1823-�24), with the governor�s wife Elizaveta and a merchant woman Amalja Rizni�. The place and Elizaveta can be read of in the �Onegin� where Elizaveta has modeled Tatjana.
| The relationship with the governor is not idyllic perhaps because of Elizaveta, and accused by the police of being an atheist he�s dismissed by the Foreign Ministry and obliged to reside at his parents� in Michajlovskoe. There for two solid years (1824-�26), forced in isolation, Pushkin by then only 25, discovers how far away from him his parents are, Sergej L�vovic, ancient aristocrat, and Nadezda Osipovna, nephew of Abraham Hannibal, the Abyssinian prince-servant of Peter the Great. |
No visits, no human relationships, no exchanges with his parents, the poet has nothing else than his art. He intensifies his work and from his fertile mind are conceived �Boris Godunov�, a romantic tragedy, �Count Nulin�, a contemporary poem, and four more chapters of his �Onegin�.
�Boris Godunov� is a prototype of modern drama, written for theatrical purposes, it introduces a new astonishing element, an ensemble representation of people that in certain moment takes over the whole stage. But also the opera brings along a new concept of time and situations representation: no longer acts are suspending the story, rather it is staged on a continuous basis by changing scenography.
Other lessons can be taken by this work, such as the political allegory represented by Boris, who starts his reign by violence and by violence ends it up. The tzar of those times, Nicholas I, has introduced his rule, at his brother�s death, by cruelly repressing the Dekabrist revolt of December 14th, 1825, and by sending to the gallows in July �26 some of Pushkin�s friends, Ryleev and Pestel�. Thanks to his halo of unreliability Pushkin was not involved by his friends in the conspiration. His life, once more, was spared out of friendship. So that in Boris Godunov�s end can be seen Pushkin�s unspoken wish to revenge his friends� death or deportation.
On September 8th, 1826 tzar Nicholas I, succeeded Alexander I, gives an end to the poet�s forced exile and an unusual exchange takes place at the court: Nicholas I will extend his �protection� to the poet (indeed a strict surveillance on the untrusted artist) and Pushkin will behave in accordance with the rules of a faithful subject. The deal � a compromise that the poet accepts to come back to life from the dull existence of Michajlovskoe � includes a new, well paid post at the Foreign Ministry. The �friendly� tzar even allows him to be sent his manuscripts without passing through the censure office: but it�s another evidence of the tzar�s distrust. He wants to keep a personal eye on the writer.
Indeed the regained freedom is far to be totally independent: Alexandr Sergeevic can by now live in Moscow or St. Petersburg, but he cannot go abroad as he�d like. The personal tzar�s scrutiny on Pushkin�s works is even more stringent than the police�s: �Boris Godunov� will be published in 3 years time, while the poem �The bronze kinight� will be published, severed, only after the poet�s death.
 |
More and more Pushkin confines himself into his art in his countryside Boldino house: he publishes in 1826 the first 6 chapters of the �Onegin�, writes �Poltava�, a historic poem, and �Peter the Great�s negro�, a prose work on his mother�s great-grandfather. But, above all, he completes his �Evgenij Onegin�, an 8-chapter opera that took him 8 years to be written (1823-1831). |
The book was actually finished on September 25th, 1830 but not to the writer�s satisfaction that went to rework on it the following year. The final version of the book leaves out the chapter �Onegin�s travel� and some verses of a tenth uncompleted chapter.
Boldino is Pushkin�s Olympus, his muses are all there to help his fertile prolificness: in less than 2 months, in 1830, his genius produces four small tragedies, among which �Mozart and Salieri�, many poems and �Belkin�s tales� in which his prose reaches the highest peaks of perfection.
In 1831 Pushkin, then 32, marries Natalja Gon�arova, a splendid 19-year-old girl whose beauty was noticed by the tzar that, to have more opportunities to meet her, forced her husband to his court by nominating him �Kammerjunker� (chamber valet), a kind of slap in Pushkin�s face due to his age and his 6-century-old aristocracy.
| Gossips are piling up around the poet and not only the tzar�s name is mentioned, Natalja, in fact, sensitive to suitors, seems having an affair with baron Georges d�Anth�s-Heeckeren, an officer of the guard. Suspects that climax when the poet is being depicted, in an anonymous letter sent to him, as the happy husband of an unfaithful lady, mother of their (?) four sons. The affront is to heavy to be swallowed, so Pushkin challenges d�Anth�s to a duel that the latter cannot refuse having already avoided once to duel with his brother-in-law (the two are in fact married to two sisters). |
It�s on January 27th, 1837 that such folly takes place: d�Anth�s� bullet shoots the 37-year-old Pushkin who�l
l die 2 days later.In his last years he had become a professional writer who had to demand much to his talent in order to pay his wife�s debts. Still, pressed as he was, he�s been able to write unforgottable works such as �Queen of spades�, a long, somewhat exoteric tale (1834), �The captain�s daughter� (1836) a novel, and �The bronze kinght�.
His life, although short and sad, has given him the merit of having brought the Russian literature to a mature creativeness to set the tone and pace for all Russian authors to come, Pushkin, however, has remained unparalleled.
Today Russia and the world celebrate her genial son on the bicentennial of his birth with events and reprints of his unlimited production. In Russia have been set state celebrations to honour such an oustanding icon: the country might have certainly done without Lenin and Stalin, but it�s hard to think of its wonderful language without Pushkin�s heritage.
Petrov-Vodkin�s portrait of Pushkin.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
© 1998 IPA House. All Rights Reserved.
