Oct 25
(Stratfor)
Upcoming elections in both Ukraine and Georgia may have a strategic impact on regional and international relations. In both countries, the elections offer a clear choice between the pro-Western parties in power and the pro-Russian opposition. An opposition victory could reverse the strategic alliances and resulting policies cultivated through Western influence in the eight years since the Soviet Union�s break up.
On Oct. 31, voters in Ukraine will choose between current President Leonid Kuchma and pro-Russian opposition parties. While Kuchma ranks first in the polls, closely followed by Progressive Socialist Party leader Natalia Vitrenko. Kuchma�s reelection would mean the continuation of current pro-Western policies. So far, Kuchma has embraced Western economic reform and pushed his foreign policy into line with Western policies. However, actual reforms have been very slow. Although he tries to satisfy both East and West, he has been unwilling to offend Russia in order to please the West. Still, Kuchma is the most Western-leaning of the candidates; Vitrenko�s reputation rests on her Communist values and her rejection of the West. The other candidates are even more pro-Russia.
Voters in Georgia face a similar choice, with the pro-Western ruling party and the pro-Russian opposition bloc in close competition for the Oct. 31 parliamentary elections. Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze and his party, Citizen�s Union, say that this election will determine Georgia�s future strategic alliances. The party says the opposition Revival party, led by Aslan Abashidze, wants to reverse Georgia�s pro-Western approach and replace it with a pro-Russian orientation. Economic reforms are slow to take effect in Georgia as well. If Revival wins a majority of seats, political gridlock is sure to follow, further slowing the process.
Relations between Georgia and Ukraine may also be altered by the elections. What was becoming, in the absence of Russian leadership, an alliance between the two, would fall apart if one or both countries elected pro-Russian candidates. In the unlikely event the opposition wins in both countries, the two could even jointly turn against the West. How the elections affect future cooperation between Georgia and Ukraine has the potential to impact strategic economic and policy choices for the rest of the former Soviet states.
A pro-Western victory will do more to retain the status quo than to effect a dramatic increase in pro-Western behavior. If the pro-Russian opposition gains power, it would mean the reversal of most of the countries� policies since independence. This is unlikely in Ukraine, where Kuchma is leading at the polls. The Georgian election is less predictable, since there are more variables. Whatever the results, they will not only affect Georgia and Ukraine, but will have ramifications for the entire region.
BISHKEK, Oct 26
The four Japanese mining engineers who were freed Sunday night after being held hostage for two months by Islamic rebels in Central Asia left the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek on Tuesday on their way back to Japan.
The Japanese, who arrived in Bishkek from Tajikistan on Monday, boarded a Japanese government-chartered flight that departed from the Kyrgyz capital at 10 a.m. (1 p.m. Japan time).
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
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