ALMATY, Oct 26
(IRBIS)
Last week on Kazakhstan stock market went on quiet. Events did not contradict with forecasts. As expected, the banks of the second tier were able to restore their short term liquidity completely, which was due to large volumes of state securities redemption and fulfillment of clients of the banks their payments to the budget for the third quarter.
At the same time, growth of the dollar exchange rate on Friday was less than expected. Despite insufficiency of free tenge of the banks, dealers preferred notes of the National Bank to dollars.
As in summer months, dollar lost its speculative attractiveness. Current short term trends of an American currency exchange rate changes got lower than the yields offered by state securities issuers. For this reason, in the second half of last week the banks and their clients made an attempt to reinvest almost all their money received from state securities redemption into notes of the National Bank. Only hard cut-off measures taken at the placement of indexed notes-14 on Friday prevented these plans to materialize.
Summary of the week: obvious stabilization of the currency market and activation of the primary market for state securities, which indicates decreasing short term devaluation expectations of the dealers.
By IRBIS specialists forecasts, liquidity of tenge in this week will keep increasing. As early as on Tuesday the dealers noted a sufficient volume of tenge on the market. Repayment on state securities on Thursday and Friday makes a large amount � 5,049.3 mln tenge (at 141.00 tenge per dollar), which can be hardly used in state securities placement sector. Taking into account this factor, it can be assumed, part of this money will be directed by the dealers to restore their currency positions despite the decrease of short term devaluation expectations, and therefore, pressure of tenge on the trade floor of KASE will increase.
Some influence on increase of demand for dollars can have the statement of Grigori Marchenko on TV regarding the cancellation of mandatory sale of exporters� half earnings at KASE soon. This could boost devaluation expectations.
On the other hand, weakening of tenge is prevented by inactivity of the market for dollars in cash where decrease of operations turnover and some prevalence of supply over demand are observed lately.
Taking into account factors mentioned above, IRBIS analysts agree upon the dollar having a propensity for growth in this week, but the growth rate will be little. Noticeable growth is expected to happen on Thursday and Friday.
Regarding the long run forecasts, the most impact will have the cancellation of mandatory sale of exporters� half earnings (if it takes place in next two months). Effects of this factor can remarkably change the conjuncture of the dollar market and will work against tenge.
Another factor, which can impact the acceleration of the devaluation, is the repayment by the banks of the second tier syndicated loans received from various international organizations. By IRBIS data, main burden of at least $30 mln will fall in the second half of November. However, repayment amounts are not so large to have a severe impact on the conjuncture of domestic currency market.
Weekly National Bank of Kazakhstan balance on the notes - minus 288.4 million tenges
/IRBIS, Oct.22, 99/ - The National Bank has finished 43rd calendar week in the State Securities primary market with the following results. At actual volume of redemption of 3,212.2 million tenges (KZ8SK2210992, KZ8EK2210992, KZ8LK2210997 at the official rate at the day of redemption) the emitter attracted 2,672.3 million tenges (1,671.9 million tenges + $7.1 million at the official rate on October 22, 99).
The week balance of the emitter under the notes program remains negative and is evaluated by 539.9 million tenges.
Record Volume of currency future transactions on KASE
/IRBIS, Oct.22, 99/ - Today on KASE during the next trades 6 future transactions (without delivery) on the record sum of $12.010 (12,010 contracts) were made. It is the highest level for all future trades in Kazakhstan.
It is the first time when turnover of the future market has exceed the volume of transactions in the base assets which has amounted today to $11.740 million.
Today�s transactions prices are given below (in brackets - future settlement date and current price trend):
� FUSD9910UN (Oct.29,1999) - 142.30 (+2.80);
� FUSD9911UN (Nov.29, 1999) - 148.00 (+2.00);
� FUSD9912UN (Dec.31, 1999) - 154.00 (+1.76);
� FUSD0001UN (Jan.28, 2000) - 157.00 (+6.18);
� FUSD0002UN (Feb.25, 2000) - 162.00 (+9.50);
� FUSD0003UN (March.31, 2000) - 168.00 (+13.00).
Total volume of the open interest on the platform at the moment of the closing has made 12.510 million USD, the greatest number of contracts (3,900) was open under the March contract.
weeks volume of trades in Non-state Securities on KASE - $91.2
/IRBIS, Oct.22, 99/ - During 43nd (October 18 - October 24) on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange 12 deals were made in Non-state Securities (NSS) on the total sum of 91,200 dollars, which is by 87.7% or 39,900 dollars more than in the previous week, when 5 transactions on the sum of 48,600 dollars were made.
Volume of transactions on KASE for the period has made 16,765 securities, which is 2.6 times or by 10,309 securities more than in the previous week.
The transactions were conducted only in eight tools, from which the most liquid were: common and preference shares of Kazakhmys Corporation (KZMS and KZMSp, official list of securities, category �A�).
Capitalization of the market of Non-state Securities of Kazakhstan on October 22 - $1,041.7 million
/IRBIS, Oct.22, 99/ - On October 22 capitalization of the exchange market of Non-state Securities of Kazakhstan (A + B + N without the State Block of Shares) has amounted to $1,722.7 million.
For one week capitalization has grown by $680,952 only due to including in the Non-listing Securities sector common and preffered shares of Aksaigasservice.
The deals can be made on KASE today in 86 tools of the 63 companies and 4 state blocks of shares.
STATISTICS: Week volume of USD transactions on KASE � $51.430 million
/IRBIS, Oct.22, 99/ - For US dollar within the 42nd week (October 18 - October 24) on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 1,246 transactions totaling $51.430 million were made at average session volume of $10.286 million.
Tenge devaluation, calculated at the average weighted market rate, is evaluated by the one week trend of minus 10.3% p.a. (tenge revaluated).
In the previous week 1,060 deals totaling $62.980 million at average session volume of $12,596 million were made. During that period tenge revaluation rate has made 36.0% p.a.
Devaluation of tenge towards US dollar, calculated at average weighted market rate on October 22, is 83.4% p.a. � from the beginning of the current year and 33.3% p.a. � for the last 30 days.
For deutsche mark 15 transactions totaling DEM230,000 were made. The deutsche mark rate has increased by 0.84%, that corresponds to 47.9% p.a. of the week average rate of tenge devaluation.
For Euro 5 deals on the sum of EU45,000 were made. The Euro rate has increased by 0.6%, that corresponds to 31.4% p.a. of the week average rate of tenge devaluation.
Total volume of the transactions in foreign currency within the 42nd week is 7,255.1 million tenges or $51,606,200.
Equilibrum dollar market remains on KASE
/IRBIS, Oct. 26, 99/ - On the Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) next trades in US dollar, deutsche mark and Euro were held. 20 banks In trades participated in trades.
US dollar: The today�s trades were opened on a level of 140.56 tenge per unit. At the first minutes the dollar rate began to reduce because of insufficient demand from the part of the currency buyers. However the decrease was short and not so strong. After reduction to session�s minimum of 140.50 tenge, dollar quickly restored its positions, and already at the 22-th minute its price reached the day�s maximum of 140.60 tenge per unit.
The second half of trade passed more quieter. The balance of offer and demand was mainly achieved in the price interval of 140.53-140.54 tenge.
The trades were closed at the quotations of140.53/55 tenge per dollar.
Total in USD 230 transactions were made. The average weighted dollar rate has made 140.53 (-0.03) tenge per unit. Volume of session is $7.570 million (-$4,170.0). The amplitude of rate fluctuation has not exceeded during the trade 0.07%.
By the trade results it is possible to tell that the market did not essentially differ from that of two previous days. Speculative component in the dealers behavior was displayed distinctly, the banks rather actively bought up, and sold dollars.
Volumes of supply and demand were rather comparable. It is not excluded, that the essential part of the currency supply belong to the exporters� proceeds.
One hour after trade closing on OTS market of Kazakhstan dollar was quoted at the level of 140.48/54 tenge per unit. Two hours later - 140.50/60.
Deutsche mark: 1 transaction at the price of 77.00 tenges per unit was made. Volume of session - DEM15,000 (-65,000). At the session closing the quotations of the mark have made 76.62/77.00 tenges per unit.
Euro: no transactions were made. At closing the Euro quotation have made 150.01/152.00 tenge per unit.
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