LEADER OF CIVILIANS PARTY DISTRIBUTES MEMBERSHIP CARDS IN THE PARLIAMENT.
Just after the results of the today�s votes in the Parliament had been announced, Azat Peruashev - Chief of the Civilians Party�s Central Committee distributed 6 party membership cards among the members of the Kazakh Parliament. It turned out that 1 member of the Parliament�s Upper House (Senate), and 5 members of its Lower House (Mazhilis) had become members of the Civilians Party. Mr. Peruashev told RFE/RL correspondents that in all, his party had more than 50 thousand members and that number was expected to increase to 100 thousand by the Parliamentary elections scheduled for this fall. He also confirmed that his party would participate in the elections. Civilians Party is known as one of the numerous pro-government parties of Kazakhstan.
VICE-CHAIRMAN OF AZAMAT PARTY MURAT AUEZOV CRITICIZED PROPOSAL OF ALMATY OBLAST�S LEADERSHIP TO LAUNCH GOLD COLLECTING CAMPAIGN ON A LARGER SCALE.
RFE/RL correspondents report from Almaty that Almaty Oblast�s Ile, Koksu, Rayimbek and some other regions started collecting gold from local citizens in order to contribute it to the Kazakh State treasury, Almaty Oblast�s Governor Zamanbek Nurqadilov called all Kazakhstanis to follow the example of the Almaty Oblast this week. Vice-Chairman of AZAMAT party Murat Auezov harshly criticized the idea yesterday, June 23, saying that the campaign was �an attempt to rip off the robbed population�. In all, Almaty Oblast managed to collect 12 million Tenges worth golden jewelry consisting of 7 thousand pieces.
SEISMOLOGISTS PREDICT EARTHQUAKE IN ALMATY BY 2003.
RFE/RL correspondents quote Almaty City�s Seismologic Center as predicting that a strong earthquake might take place in Almaty area by 2003. Asqar Ospanov - a top official of the Center said to journalists yesterday, June 23, that the earthquake would be very strong and its center would be in a place between Turgen and Shelek towns of Almaty Oblast. Meanwhile experts of the Republican Seismologic Complex in Kurchatov town, say that such an earthquake might occur in 400-500 years only.
PS. All the news are based on reports sent by RFE/RL correspondents Sultankhan Aqquly-Uly and Aselim Qalken-Qyzy from Astana, Sayasat Beyisbay and Saltanat Baghashar from Almaty.
KAZAKH GOVERNMENT ANNULS ITS DECREE ON LIMITATION OF RUSSIAN FOODS IMPORTS.
Astana quote press service of the Kazakh Trade, Energy and Industry Ministry as reporting that Kazakh Government�s Decree on the Russian foods imports to the Kazakh economy adopted on May 24, this year had been decided to be annulled starting next month. The measure of the Russian foods imports limitation was defined as a �temporary measure�. It was also mentioned in the Ministry�s press release that in the short period of such a �measure�, Kazakhstan�s local producers of meat and chicken increased the volume of their outputs to 110,2 per cent, margarine - 112,3 per cent, butter 160,8 per cent, in comparison with same period last year.
STRIKERS OF SHYMKENT PHOSPHORUS PRODUCING PLANT WARN TO START MARCH OF PROTEST TO ASTANA.
According to information provided by RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty, hunger strikers of Phosphorus Producing Plant in Shymkent City, South Kazakhstan, warned the local administration that they would start a march of protest from Shymkent to Astana - the capital, in case if their overdue salaries for the last 3 years were not fully paid off in one week. The workers have been hunger striking for one and a half month now. The Kazakh Government announced the Facility as bankrupted and made it clear that the plant would be sold through tender. The workers fear that in case of the facility�s purchase, the debt to the workers , which is about 450 million Tenges ($1 equals 132 Tenges currently) might never been paid off. Some of the hunger strikers also warn to set themselves into fire and die in case if their money are not paid.
VETERANS OF THE WW2 MARKED 48TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE SOVIET-GERMAN WAR BEGINNING.
Veterans of the WW2 gathered in the Almaty�s Central Park called after 28 Panfilov Guards, yesterday, June 22 and put flowers to the eternal fire. In all, about 77 thousand veterans of the Second World War are living in Kazakhstan currently, 24 thousand of them are handicapped people having lost their health during the war. 30 Heroes of the Soviet Union and 15 owners of the Glory Order are still alive. American Chevron Company distributed some food among the WW2 veterans living in the former capital of Kazakhstan yesterday, June 22.
PETROLEUM PRICE INCREASED IN ALMATY TOO.
RFE/RL correspondents report from Almaty that gasoline prices increased to 7-8 Tenges just in one day today, June 23. After oil refineries in Atyrau and Pavlodar stopped functioning and a refinery in Shymkent shortened the volume of its output, the petroleum prices started getting higher in the Northern Oblasts of Kazakhstan last week. The wave of the petroleum prive increase reached the Southern part of the country as well. The cheapest gasoline marked as A80 costs 30 Tenges per liter in the former capital reportedly. The former price was between 22-23 Tenges per liter.
NUCLEAR TESTS FIELD IN SEMEY REGION TO CONDUCT A NUCLEAR TEST SOON.
RFE/RL correspondents quote Kazakh mass media as reporting that a nuclear test will be conducted in the Soviet era nuclear test complex in Semey (Semipalatinsk Area), Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast very soon. The nuclear blast will be conducted under the auspices of the US sponsored program called OMEGA - 2. The main aim of the blast-to-be is to check some international seismologic centers whether they are able to detect the spots of �earthquakes�.
PS. All the news are based upon reports sent by RFE/RL correspondents Sultankhan Aqquly-Uly and Aselim Qalken Qyzy from Astana, Batyrkhan Darimbet from Almaty.
(RFE/RL)
June 24
(Radio Liberty)
The government of Nurlan Balgimbaev managed to withstand the next attack of their opponents and to stay at the power after vote of no-confidence in the Parliament.
In the Upper Chamber, Senate eleven deputies voted for the government, while twenty-three deputies voted against the government. There was a lack of one vote to express non-confidence to the Cabinet. In the Lower Chamber, Mazhilis there was a lack of five votes (eighteen deputies voted for the government, while thirty-four were against it). Thus, changes to the budget which were the reason of this governmental-Parliamentary crisis are considered to be approved automatically.
Now the budget deficit is determined in the amount of US$ five hundred twelve million. Mainly the articles of expenditure towards social requirements were reduced.
Probably, the results of this voting and all previous fight influenced the decision of six deputies to declare their entrance into the Civil party of Kazakhstan. This demonstrative declaration was made right after the end of the Parliament meeting and was interpreted by local observers as a complete defeat of the authorities� �Otan� party (�Fatherland�), which was the main initiator of the government�s dismissal.
The members of �Otan� composing by today the most numerous group of deputies, demonstrated today their party indiscipline and did not support their leaders (ex-Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Sergei Tereschenko and the Mazhilis speaker Marat Ospanov). It was these two persons who struggled against Nurlan Balgimbaev during last weeks.
At the same time the Civil party was against of change of the government in such a difficult for the country period. Businessmen working in the sector of the real economy shared the party�s position. The unpopularity of the idea of the government dismissal influenced the results of the voting: the main role was played by the followers and members of the Civil party in the Parliament.
This position of the new party was seriously supported in the industrial regions of Kazakhstan (in Pavlodar, Kustanai, Eastern Kazakhstan regions), as this party was going to protect the interests of investors, businessmen and producers. During the last weeks literally the number of members of Civil party exceeded fifty thousand, and the tempo of growth of its popularity are still the same. It is projected that within two to three months this number will increase to one hundred thousand people.
Thus, after the today�s unexpected defeat of �Otan� a new situation is taking shape in the political stage of Kazakhstan: at the threshold of the Parliamentary elections the most real political force is Civil party. This party is ready to form the most numerous Parliamentary group in the current Parliament.
The disordered opposition is not able to present any competitiveness to this party.
This significantly increases the chances of Nurlan Balgimbaev�s government to keep its power at least for a half of a year, which under the current conditions in Kazakhstan is a very significant period.
ASTANA, June 24
(THE GLOBE)
�I am sorry very much that the respected economist Mr. Ospanov dared to say that we had changed the course of the reforms,� the Prime Minister announced in Astana on June 24.
Nurlan Balgimbaev expressed his disagreement with the economic program proposed by Marat Ospanov, the Mazhilis speaker, who proposed to increase inflation, increase the budget and to follow the liberal policy regarding monetarisation. According to the Prime Minister, increase of inflation will lead to depreciation of the population�s deposits, our banks are not able to credit the economy. Inflation will result in compensation of salary and pension, which will influence first of all poor strata of the population. �We will not do this in any case,� he emphasised.
As far as increase of the budget deficit is concerned, according to PM, this deficit is 3.7%, i.e. 67 billion tenge. �In this year it will be difficult to cover the deficit, and if we increase the deficit we will have to borrow money outside the country, as we do not have inside money. Borrowing today, we make our children�s future poorer,� he stated. That is why it is required to reduce the budget deficit. Our government will do this in 2000.
As far as the liberal policy regarding monetarisation is concerned, Mr. Balgimbaev thinks, that just to emission of money will lead to the fact, that the issued money will be exchanged to dollars and �kept in stockings� or exported from Kazakhstan. He considers, that to increase the money supply it is required to increase the manufacturing base. �We are doing this, it is being done with difficulties and slowly, but today we need a lot of money to make everything work.�
According to Mr. Balgimbaev, all big enterprises are working. He mentioned all enterprises of Eurasian bank and Ispat-Karmet as an example. �I believe, we are on the right way,� he stated.
ASTANA
June 24
(THE GLOBE)
�I was called a monetarist. In fact I am one of the first monetarists, I said this in 1992 and I do not give up this conception in my program,� Marat Ospanov announced in Astana on June 24.
�I never proposed to increase the volume of monetary base and monetarisation level at the expense of emission only. This should not be done. I consider the main thing the problem of non-payments, as everything depends on flexibility and, of course, it is required to so everything in the frame of the monetary policy,� Mr. Ospanov stated.
According to him, the variant of the budget sequestration proposed by the government is not the latest and the only variant.
Marat Ospanov believes that it is required to shift from the macroeconomic scenario and stabilisation to the real sector of microeconomy. It is necessary that the inflation level, the credit rate, deficit of the budget, the external debt, devaluation promote the development of the real economic sector, i.e. to increase the working assets, he thinks.
The Mazhilis speaker emphasised that the last thing which we should do is to ask for credits of international institutions. But the developing countries, countries with the transitional economy cannot survive without such an aid.
�I repeat that from the very beginning the government could demand from the Parliament the budget without deficit. There are variants, but in the frame of the monetary scenario. The government uses one horse, but the hosre, you understand�� Marat Ospanov said.
We assume that the most probable candidate for the post of the Prime Minister is Sarybai Kalmurzaev.
The main argument for this is the fact that the present head of the President�s administration is the only person who may establish relations between regional Akims and the new wave of young reformers in the government.
As the other heads of the regional administrations today, Mr. Kalmurzaev originates from the party system. That is why he is a familiar man for them.
At the same time it is obvious that Nurlan Balgimbaev�s relations with the Akims are not successful. The reason for this is that the current PM is a technocrat and originates from the oil industry, i.e. he is a man from another circle.
According to the conducted research, most of the regional Akims are former party functionaries (56.2%). At the same time, only 10% of the government are former party functionaries while 70% of the government are specialists, i.e. the composition of the government greatly differs from the composition of the Akims. (�Kazakhstan Energy� #10, 1998).
In addition, it should be mentioned that when Sarybai Kalmurzaev was the head of the State Committee on privatisation he closely co-operated with the new wave of businessmen - especially with �Kazcommertsbank� which was the only Kazakh consultant on privatisation.
Perhaps it is not coincidental that following Mr. Kalmurzaev�s appointment as the head of the President�s administration, the previously the deputy chairman of Kazcommertsbank�s Board of the directors Mr. Feld, became the head of the most powerful local monopoly KEGOC.
It is interesting that the history of the changes of the Kazakhstan Prime Ministers very much resembles an anecdote of the Soviet period about the alternation of bald and haired General Secretaries.
Sergei Tereschenko was a party functionary but a bad economist. Tereschenko was replaced by Akezhan Kazhegeldin who having a party-economic-CSS past, but he was the only one who had access to both external and internal structures, hence the government played too significant political role. As a result, Mr. Kazhegeldin was replaced by a technocrat, Nurlan Balgimbaev, who does not have any notable authority in the West.
Based upon this model, we may come to conclusion that neither Kasymzhomart Tokaev nor Uraz Dzhandosov are suitable candidates for the post of the chairman of the government. Both are well-known in the West and there is a danger of similar events as with Akezhan Kazhegeldin.
Mr. Kalmurzaev has never been considered as a politician by the West. Moreover, there are still a lot of claims to him regarding privatisation.
Summarising the above-mentioned facts we may say that Sarybai Kalmurzaev is the most probable candidate to be Prime Minister.
However, it is important to emphasise that if President Nursultan Nazarbaev decides to conduct serious reforms in the regions then Kalmurzaev�s figure will not be so attractive. In this case, somebody from the new wave of managers, possibly Zeinulla Kakimzhanov, will most probably be the Prime Minister. Zeinulla Kakimzhanov, the Ministry of Revenues of RK occupies the most important place in the government. At the same time, it should be mentioned that Mr. Kakimzhanov has the potential of a politician and may be promoted in the West.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
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