Russian planes bomb airport near Chechen capital, one dead
GROZNY, Russia, Sept 23 (AFP) - Russian warplanes carried out air attacks Thursday against an airport near Grozny, the closest federal forces have struck to the rebel republic�s capital since the 1994-96 Chechen war.
Witnesses at the Mansur airport some five kilometers (three miles) northeast of Grozny said the air-to-surface missile assault killed at least one person and destroyed part of a landing strip.
They reported seeing four rocket strikes delivered by a SU-25 warplane. The hits destroyed a TU-134 jet and a smaller airplane stationed on the ground.
Russian defense officials cited by the Interfax news agency confirmed the incident, saying the strikes were carried out against ammunition dumps and a radar facility stationed at the airport.
Officials in Grozny earlier reported that Russian warplanes bombed two villages some five kilometres (three miles) northeast of Grozny, both situated near the Mansur airport.
Witnesses in Chechnya said the attacks marked the first time since the 1994-96 Chechen war for independence that Russian warplanes had struck so close the capital.
At least 2,081 killed in Taiwan earthquake
TAIPEI, Sept 23 (AFP) - The death toll from the devastating earthquake in Taiwan rose to 2,081 Thursday, with 7,626 injured, rescue officials said.
More than 53-hours after the quake, 1,762 people remained trapped in toppled buildings and 206 people were missing, the officials said at 1:00 p.m. (0500 GMT) Thursday.
The magnitude of the temblor was estimated at 7.6 on the Richter scale by the United States Geological Survey.
It struck around 1:47 a.m. Tuesday (1747 GMT Monday), with its epicenter 12.5 kilometers (7.75 miles) west of Sun Moon Lake in central Nantou county.
Sept 23
Sept 17
(Stratfor)
SUMMARY
The conclusion of Turkmen Defense Minister Batyr Sardzhayev�s visit to Beijing has solidified Turkmen-Chinese military relations, promising to enhance Turkmenistan�s regional military and economic strength. With this, China is bidding for influence in Central Asia in a way that could temper Russia�s traditional role in the region. China�s bilateral relations with Turkmenistan will indicate how well their �multi-polar� world might proceed.
ANALYSIS
China�s offer of military cooperation with Turkmenistan will demonstrate the Russia�s and China�s faculties to share power in Central Asia. Russia will have to accommodate its new partner as China assumes an uncharacteristic role in the region. Because of the potential benefit of economic and military relations with Turkmenistan, both China and Russia may discover the destructive role of self-interest in their attempted �multi-polar� world.
During his seven-day visit to China, Turkmen Defense Minister Batyr Sardzhayev met with Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, Defense Minister Col. Gen. Chi Haotian, and PLA Chief of General Staff Fu Quanyou. This was the first such visit to Ch Turkmenistan, confirming their will to cooperate militarily.
Turkmenistan is the most neutral of the Central Asian states. Unlike the other �-stans� it has no binding relations with either the U.S. or Russia. From Turkmen President Niyazov�s point of view, his country�s neutrality is a product of Russian neglect and American discomfort with the poor human rights record. In a recent meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, Niyazov protested that his country�s �doors are open,� though it was �Russia that has so far not been coming here.�
In fact, Russia is in the process of downsizing its military presence in Turkmenistan. It agreed in July to withdraw its border patrol forces from Turkmenistan by November 19, 1999. This marks the end of an agreement made December 23, 1993, permitting Russia to maintain a border patrol force within Turkmen territory. The initial force presence of 1,900 has over the years dwindled to 200, and in May the Turkmen foreign ministry appealed for their removal.
Though Russia is cutting back its active personnel in Central Asia, the frequency of recent military-diplomatic efforts in the region indicates that Russia has no intention of losing any military dependents in the region. Russian supply of training, advising and hardware is on the rise in Central Asia, culminating with the Kyrgyzstan hostage crisis. On August 27, Russian air force commander-in-chief General Anatoli Kornukov announced that Moscow would provide anti-aircraft systems and fighters to CIS countries on a �long-term lease� basis. Negotiations are said to be underway with Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Russia will continue to cultivate Turkmenistan as a strategic partner, irrespective of China�s recent maneuvers.
Russia has historically held influence over Central Asian states by maintaining a stable military presence in each country. This approach is being gradually phased out. Russian diplomacy is now more even-handed in the region, allowing smaller militaries to maintain their own defenses with less Russian supplements. Konstantin Totskiy, director of Russia�s Federal Border Service, has negotiated with Central Asian countries more unilaterally for the past six months on issues of border patrol demobilization. Demobilizing Russian forces abroad � while offering �technical support� country to country � puts teeth in Russia�s flimsy Collective Security Treaty and lets Russia become a partner in military support rather than a regional hegemon.
Turkmenistan�s recent lean toward China may be Niyazov�s initial step away from his characteristic neutrality. Over the past year, China has done more to fill in the bilateral void left by Russia and the U.S. on the economic front. It appears now that China will attempt the same on the military front.
Traditional Russian and growing Chinese inroads into this area are competing with the stable influence of the U.S. in Central Asia under the Partnership for Peace program. Military exchanges and training exercises between the U.S. and Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are common, without becoming a diplomatic affront to Russia. But China�s involvement with Turkmenistan is an incipient move to check U.S. influence in the long term, not Russia�s [check on hyper link to recent shanghi 5 meeting]. China�s military cooperation with Turkmenistan does not portend a decline of Russian influence over Central Asia.
The impact of China�s cooperation with Turkmenistan is more immediate in terms of Russia-China relations. If the countries� shared influence over Turkmenistan proves difficult to manage, then shared influence over the rest of Central Asia may prove equally problematic in the future. Cooperation in Turkmenistan will challenge the resolve of Russia and China to accomplish the �multi-polar� world they envision. Military cooperation with Turkmenistan is political and flexible, and suggests no transparent victor. Turkmenistan�s bilateral military cooperation with Russia and China is less likely to threaten the countries� mutual influence in Central Asia. Oil and gas, on the other hand, is a market indicating a clear victor.
China�s aggressive cultivation of Turkmenistan�s oil market, and Russia�s inability to sanction it, may be a hitch in Russian-China relations. Over the past year, China�s National Petroleum Company has helped rebuild over 100 wells in Turkmenistan, accounting for the steady increase in the country�s export production. Turkmenistan is also on China�s ten-year schedule for gas importation. If reserve estimates are correct, Turkmenistan will soon be the third largest gas exporter in the world behind Russia and Iran. China is essentially liberating Turkmenistan from the rigid monopoly of Russia�s state-owned Gazprom, which has forbidden the westward transport of Turkmen gas and oil.
Turkmenistan is a rare and critical case study of the new diplomacy between Russia and China in Central Asia. Both nations� lobby for military cooperation with Turkmenistan will gauge the compatibility of Russia and China, illustrating how the �multi-polar� world might operate. Should Russia revise its policy on the export of Turkmen gas, and challenge the economic partnership between China and Turkmenistan, the aspirations toward a �multi-polar� world will stumble.
Elections
�The Energy of Kazakhstan�, a magazine-appendix to THE GLOBE presents the announcement of the article �An Intensified Dialogue on Democratization� by OSCE Centre in Almaty. You may read the full variant of the article in the fifth number of �The Energy of Kazakhstan� which is being sold in the Supermarket �Ramstore�, at �Texaco� filling stations, in �Yubileiny�, near CUM, as well as in hotels The Regent Ankara and Hyatt Regency/Rachat Palace.
�An Intensified Dialogue on Democratization�
by OSCE Centre in Almaty
Dialogue Between Partners
The beginning of contacts between the GOK and OSCE/ODIHR on election issues preceded the opening of the OSCE Centre in Almaty and dates back to the 1995 Parliamentary Elections. A more intensified dialogue, however, began with an ODIHR Needs Assessment Mission which visited Kazakhstan from 16 to 21 November 1998 following an official invitation by the GOK to observe the January 1999 Presidential Election. The goal of a Needs Assessment Mission is to determine whether the necessary pre-requisites for free and fair elections exist in a given OSCE member-state, in this case Kazakhstan.
This particular mission concluded that Kazakhstan did not meet OSCE election related commitments in the pre-election process and that serious measures needed to be taken for the elections to meet the commitments. The Needs Assessment Mission questioned the possibility of ensuring the integrity of the process without postponing the election. Of particular concern were the refusal to register two candidates because of minor administrative convictions; a media environment inadequate for a free electoral process; and allegations of intimidation of voters in order to secure support for the incumbent President. Based on these findings, the ODIHR released a press statement on 3 December 1998 in which a postponement of the election was proposed. It was concluded that under the circumstances a full-scale election observation mission would not be launched. Instead, a limited election assessment mission would be sent in order to follow and report on the whole electoral process. No short-term observers would be deployed.
Following the findings and recommendations of the Needs Assessment Mission, ODIHR deployed a limited Election Assessment Mission for the 10 January 1999 Presidential Elections. This Mission differed substantially from an ODIHR Election Observation Mission that typically includes 100-200 members. The team deployed as part of the Election Assessment Mission consisted of approximately 15 international election and media experts led by Ms. Judy Thompson of Canada. The Mission did not focus on Election Day, and instead evaluated the electoral process as a whole. Its assessment included an analysis of the legal and administrative framework; voter education; registration of candidates; the campaign; and the media. The Mission was in close contact with candidates and their representatives, the Central Election Commission and local commissions, governmental authorities, local NGOs and public associations, the media, international organisations and Embassies of the OSCE participating states. Polling stations were visited to a limited extent.
In the Aftermath of the Presidential Elections
In March, the Chairperson of the CEC Mrs. Zagipa Balieva traveled to Warsaw for a meeting with Ambassador Gerard Stoudmann, the Director of the ODIHR. It was intended that the parties would discuss proposed changes to the Law on Elections, but the Kazakhstani delegation arrived without any concrete proposals. As a result, emphasis was shifted to a joint international delegation led by Ambassador Stoudmann which visited Almaty and Astana in May. This group which, in addition to the ODIHR, included representatives of the European Union�s Commission, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the Constitutional and Legal Policy Institute of the Open Society Institute, and the Norwegian Helsinki Committee met with representatives of political parties and NGOs and with governmental interlocutors. The aim of the visit was to evaluate the democratization process in Kazakhstan, in particular the conditions under which the fall parliamentary elections would be held. The already adopted Law on Elections was one of the topics discussed.
The joint delegation noted in an Aide Memoire to the Kazakhstani government and a press release that following critical reports from OSCE/ODIHR and others on the Presidential Election, the authorities of Kazakhstan appealed to OSCE/ODIHR for assistance to draft a new election law. However, the authorities did not provide the OSCE/ODIHR a draft of the election law for comments prior to its adoption by parliament in April. In addition, the law was adopted without taking into account the opinion of political parties and NGOs.
It should be mentioned that on 10 May in Astana the joint delegation held discussions with Kazakhstani authorities and noted with satisfaction the CEC�s draft measures to address the concerns enumerated above. The OSCE/ODIHR agreed to assist the CEC to further develop these draft measures. In addition, the participants in the joint delegation reiterated their readiness to assist the Government of Kazakhstan as well as the country�s civil society to promote human rights and democratic institutions.
It also was announced that the OSCE/ODIHR would continue to monitor Kazakhstan�s compliance with OSCE commitments, in particular in the field of elections. Based on the results of this monitoring, the OSCE/ODIHR would decide whether an election observation mission would be deployed to Kazakhstan for the fall parliamentary elections. The OSCE Centre in Almaty was tasked with collecting and relaying to the ODIHR relevant information related to developments concerning elections.
The whole version of the article you will find in
�The Energy of Kazakhstan� # 5.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
© 1998 IPA House. All Rights Reserved.