IIA �POLITON�
ALMATY
On August 9, 1999 at the meeting of the Security Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan presided by the President of RK Nursultan Nazarbaev, the issue regarding serious infringements of the order of realisation of military technique abroad was considered. The pretence of the consideration was a scandal begun on march 19, 1999, when the Azerbaijan authorities arrested a Kazakhstan plane �Ruslan� loaded with six dismantled military planes �Mig-21� to be delivered to Bratislava. Only after the interference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan the cargo was returned to the place of its former location, in one of the military divisions nearby the town of Taldykorgan.
In connection with this incident, the President Nazarbaev entitled the Defence Minister Mukhtar Altynbaev and the chairman of the Committee on National Security Nurtai Abykaev to conduct a thorough investigation and cancel the contract with Slovak companies. However, the order of the head of the state was not fulfilled. In the result N. Abykaev and M. Altynbaev sent in their resignation, which was approved by the President. Besides, several responsible officers of the Defence Ministry and CSS (Committee of State Security) were dismissed. Alnur Musaev was appointed the new chairman of CSS. Bakhytzhan Yertaev, who previously worked as first deputy of these institutions, was appointed the acting Minister of Defence (�Panorama�, #31, 13.08.99). the Independent Informational Agency �PoliTon� conducted the poll regarding the above-mentioned dismissal.
1. Efficacy of the powerful system
The experts unanimously agreed that the present system is not effective. And it does not depend on the last personnel changes in the force structures.
First, the experts believe that there is no accurate logic, strategy and success in the personnel policy of Kazakhstan. Everything is settled basing on interests of concrete persons and groups of the ruling elite in a concrete situation. According to some experts, the President of the republic:
- either cannot adequately analyse the objective premises needed to take a correct personnel decision;
- or is not free from the influence of different political forces from his environment and takes the next personnel decision being influenced by these forces;
- or he is regularly changing personnel to reduce the influence of these groups.
This personnel policy is characterised by often personnel replacements in the same structures (the Ministry of Defence and CSS). For several years the third Minister of Defence has been dismissed, while A. Musaev has been appointed the CSS chairman for the second time.
Second, the personnel policy is based on the President�s individual will. Neither the Parliament nor the public opinion nor the opposition influences his will.
Third, the personnel is selected taking into consideration clans� criteria, personal faithfulness to the heads and loyalty to the regime, but not interests of the society and state, efficacy of the managerial system, business-like and professional features of people.
The experts think that the last personnel�s replacement again confirmed inefficacy of the system of the state authorities and management. First of all, they consider the authorities unstable, as the President freely dismisses people who are faithful to him. According to the experts, the decision regarding dismissal of the Defence Minister is a consequence of a low executive discipline of the Defence Ministry, as well as of the absence of order and due to a complete inefficacy of the Kazakhstan army. On the whole, the force structures were seriously discredited from the population�s point of view. Some experts emphasise that for the first time the authority of the Committee on National Security, which before was not criticised at all, has seriously suffered.
2. Significance for the social life
As far as this aspect is concerned, the experts� opinions are different. One group of the experts believes that the dismissal of the force ministers does not play any significant role in the political situation of the republic. These experts connect this with the fact that the personnel policy of the state is closed for the society. As the republican population has little information about the activity of force structures, it is difficult to clarify the real motifs of the dismissal. Besides, the personnel changes in the Defence Ministry and CSS will not actually influence the functioning of these structures.
Another group of the experts supposes that the dismissal of the force ministers is of a significant importance. According to them, these dismissals demonstrated the vulnerability of the high-rank functionaries. In some definite situations the President sacrifices people who are faithful to him due to a political appropriateness. At the same time, the dismissal of the force ministers may be interpreted as the first step towards the entire replacement of the government. This replacement, as some experts believe, may happen after the Parliament election.
There is also an opinion that the official propaganda imparted the considered event with the visible social importance, having presented it as a decisive measure to influence the irresponsible functionaries and the next disclosure according to the campaign against corruption.
3. Interests of inside-elite groups
The exerts believe that a group of the governing elite, headed by the chief of the tax police Rakhat Aliev was the most interested in the dismissal of N. Abykaev from the post of the chairman of CSS. The new chairman of CSS A. Musaev is from this group namely, the experts emphasise. In connection with this, the positions of this group have been significantly strengthened.
According to some experts, the secretary of the Security Council Marat Tazhin expressed a big interest to the dismissal of the force ministers. The competition between him and Abykaev for the influence of the President started long ago. Besides, Tazhin, occupying his today�s post, is controlling in the President�s administration issues of national security and defence, is not responsible for the scandal with sale of military technique. Some experts remark that by several positions he is close to Aliev�s group, due to which their interests coincide regarding the last personnel replacement.
There is also an opinion that the Minister of Foreign Affairs Kasymzhomart Tokaev was interested in the dismissal of Abykaev and Altynbaev. First, because officers of the Defence Ministry arose the scandal around the sale of weapon by Kazakhstan due to their unskilful and incompetent action. These actions regularly caused irritation of MFA. Second, if before it was mainly representatives of Foreign Trade Department and CSS who dealt with financial issues of Kazakhstan, now MFA is getting more influence on this issue. This is indirectly proved by the merge of the Ministry of Foreign Economic Links with MFA, as well as by appointment of Tokaev the deputy of Prime Minister. In other words, in his new status he is interested in reduction of the influence of CSS in foreign countries.
According to some experts, the dismissal of M. Altynbaev from the post of the Defence Minister was actively promoted by his first deputy, the head of the General Headquarter of the republican Army B. Yertaev. The conflict between these two persons has been taking shape for a long time. The experts affirm that this conflict was based on the desire of Yertaev to head the military structure and thus to strengthen his positions in the system of power.
At last, the President himself was interested in the dismissal of both persons. The experts believe that this interest was based on an obvious increase of their political weight. These circumstances could arise anxiousness and doubt in their further faithfulness.
Some experts suppose that the real reasons for the personnel replacements in the force structures are hidden significantly deeper. The main version of the dismissal is a manoeuvre drawing away people�s attention. The dismissal of the Defence Minister M. Altynbaev and his deputy A. Kazhibaev is connected first of all with the fact that there is extremely difficult situation in the Kazakhstan army. This situation may result in a complete collapse of the army. As far as N. Abykaev is concerned, the experts consider that his dismissal was caused that he either could not or did not want to neutralise properly the ex-Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin. Possibly, to settle this problem he was appointed at the eve of the presidential election. According to the experts, those passive measures to compromise Kazhegeldin, which were recently taken by CSS , could hardly be a merit of Abykaev. The appointment of A. Musaev the head of CSS, who once loudly disclosed A. Kazhegeldin, probably, should be marked with active operations of the committee in this regard. Moreover, in fact, the new head has no choice, as his future at this post directly depends on a success of his actions during the Parliamentary election.
According to another version, the scandal around the sale of military technique occasionally revealed the perfected system of personal enrichment of force ministers through supplies of weapons sanctioned by the government. The experts suppose that everything was realised according to the following scheme: writing off of the military weapons, conclusion of the contract mainly with �the third world� countries through mediators, settlement of transport problems through foreign mediators without dispatch documents, transmission of paid amounts to personal accounts or accounts of mediators in foreign banks. The experts consider it possible, that the illegal sale of Kazakhstan weapon was noticed by the foreign special services, which could unofficially submit to the republican leaders the compromising data on force functionaries. This might be caused by the desire to impede possible supply of weapons to non-democratic and terrorist regimes.
Some experts think that the force ministers did not act independently, but in accordance with the sanction of �high ranks�. That is why their dismissal was caused by their obvious mistake with the sale of �Mig-21� planes. The republican heads just referred the blame to M. Altynbaev and N. Abykaev, thus rejecting from the abroad sale of weapons.
The experts also emphasised possible consequences of personnel replacement in the Defence Ministry and CSS. Some of them think it possible that despite the scandal, Kazakhstan will not stop selling military technique. First of all, because this technique is of a high demand, while the state is short of hard currency means.
Besides, the experts think that the state has a lot of extra weapon. The Kazakhstan governing elite would hardly wish to destroy the probated system of selling the weapon.
The experts mention the fact that in the result of the scandal Kazakhstan may gain an image of a country-supplier of weapons to �hot beds�, and hence, an image of the state which supports terrorism and civil instability in the world. In particular, recently the Minister of Foreign Affairs of South Korea Hon Sunjang expressed his anxiousness to the Kazakhstan ambassador, that Kazakhstan, according to his information, had sold about 30 planes �Mig-21� to North Korea (�Vremya MN�, 13.08.99). this situation may attract a serious attention of the world�s community to the political situation inside Kazakhstan. This is extremely undesirable for the Kazakhstan authorities, especially at the eve of the Parliamentary election. After that, the experts believe, the further reduction of the investment rating of Kazakhstan and worsening of its international image will be possible.
In the last week the pre-election Marathon race was stirred up. The registration of candidates is being completed, and this, in its own turn, complicates the pre-election atmosphere in the country. What is the apportionment of political parties before the election? We propose you the review of the Kazakh Service of Radio �Liberty� (KSRL) of the pre-election situation in Kazakhstan.
The second material of KSRL is devoted to the research work of the Russian scholar, a specialist on Central Asia. The author touches the problems of national security of Kazakhstan, in particular the threat of Central Asian factor, including such aspects as demographic boom, border disputes, lack of irrigated land, etc.
Apportionment of political parties at the eve of the election
Another pre-election period of the next Parliamentary election is coming to the end, as the registration of candidates to the Senate has completed, in 10 days registration of candidates to the Mazhilis will also end. Names of all candidates will be known on September 10. Then the next phase (the pre-election agitation) will start.
As on today political parties have determined their candidates.
It is known that the biggest number of candidates is nominated by Azamat party (this party has nominated 10 candidates by the party�s list and 67 candidates in one-mandate districts). This was unexpected, as nobody supposed that the party could nominate its candidates in all one-mandate districts, but the leaders of Azamat managed to do this.
The party�s list is headed by Galym Abilsiitov, the second one is Murat Auezov. Pyotr Svoik decided to be balloted in Al-Farabi district, where his main competitor is the President of �Alsi� company Isakhan Alimzhanov. Of course, the famous company selling computers in Kazakhstan, has more chances. Moreover, the company constantly conducts charitable events in Bostandyk district, included into the Al-Farabi district.
As far as the number of candidates is concerned, �Otan� party takes the second place. It is noteworthy that the party nominated 18 persons by the party�s list of 10 sits. It is unclear. Even if 100% of electors� votes are for the party�s candidates, only 10 of them will be able to be deputies.
In one-mandate districts �Otan� nominates 54 candidates. The party is short of just 13 candidates to nominate them in all districts. Out of nominated candidates, 20 are present deputies of the Mazhilis. Among candidates are the former Prime Minister Uzakbai Karamanov, the ex-editor of �Yegemen Kazakhstan� Ualikhan Kalizhan, the ex-deputy of the minister Shamshiya Berkimbaeva, the President of the JSC �Shymkent munai onimderi� Kuanysh Tolemisov.
The first in the party�s list is Marat Ospanov. The list also includes the former head of the National Bank Galym Bainazarov, singer Rosa Rymbaeva, businessman Bulat Abilov, pugilist Serik Konakbaev, former deputies and state functionaries. The acting chairman of the party Sergei Tereschenko decided not to take part in the pre-election campaign. Probably, he understands how much his authority reduced among the population. After he led the agriculture of the country to stagnation, maybe, he doubts that there are electors ready to vote for him.
Of course, there is a reason for Marat Ospanov, who missing the one-mandate district decided to ballot by the party�s list. As the Parliament headed by Ospanov, has lost the population�s trust, and is named �obedient�. That is why he cannot be sure that he will get electors� votes.
The third position by the number of candidates is of the Communist Party. The party nominated 24 candidates in one-mandate districts, and 10 � by the party�s list, which is headed by the leader of communists Serikbolsyn Abdildin. Due to financial problems, the party is very passively preparing for the election.
Kazhegeldin�s party, Republican People�s Party of Kazakhstan nominated 19 candidates in one-mandate districts, and 10 � by the party�s list. the party�s members are seriously anxious, whether their leader will be able to participate in the election, and whether the Central Election Commission will permit this. This problem has not been settled yet. In case Kazhegeldin participates in the election, the party will prepare for the election very actively.
The leaders of the parties, who did not nominate their own candidatures, are as follows: the acting chairman of �Otan� party Sergei Tereschenko and Azat Peruashev, the first secretary of the Civil Party. This can be explained by some specific reasons. While Tereschenko is not confident in his candidature, Peruashev is poorly known in the society, as he has just started his political career.
Some public figures, such as Baltash Tursumbaev, Sherkhan Murtaza, Dulat Isabekov, Karishal Asanov, Serik Abdrakhmanov, Zhasaral Kuanysh-ali and others, decided to nominate themselves.
The electorate paying attention to candidates and analysing, will try to choose the best ones. Everything depends on electors, of course, if election commissions will not do illegal things.
21.08.99
A big research work of the head of the Central Asian department of the Institute of CIS peoples Andrei Grozin was published in the fourth issue of �Central Asia and Caucasus� magazine in this year. The article is named �Kazakhstan: problems of national security�.
The author makes prognosis regarding type of danger threatening Kazakhstan. For example, he mentioned that the Central Asian factor presents a direct threat to the country�s security.
Since the middle of the 20th century Central Asia is suffering from a demographic boom. The number of the population is increasing very fast, the increase index is higher than the world�s ones. For example, the natural increase index in Europe is 3 times less than in Central Asia.
In comparison with the entire region, the birth rate index is very low in Kazakhstan. Fifty-four million of people lived in all Central Asia in 1994, including almost a half, i.e. 21 million � in Uzbekistan. The territory of Kazakhstan is 2.5 times more than of all Central Asian republics together. In connection with this, the density of the population and lack of fertile soils may result in another Fergana catastrophe, the author believes.
While in Uzbekistan there are 48 persons per 1 square kilometre, in Kazakhstan � only 6 people. Besides, every year the number of the Kazakhstan population decreases by 250 thousand people.
The border disputes also initiate a lot of headache. These problems exist between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. For example, during Khruschov�s period, Uzbekistan received some regions of Southern Kazakhstan, but during Brezhnev�s time Uzbekistan had to return these lands. However, till the present time, the researcher writes, this country has not rejected the thought to take these regions back.
There are also disputes regarding water. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, which were known for their solid friendship from ancient time, when the matter was concerned the water, forgot their friendship and were ready to start a war. In 1997 near the Kyrgyz reservoir situated at the border on Uzbekistan, the latter was conducting military exercises of air forces. Kyrgyzstan, in its own turn, announced in threatening tone that if any harm was done to the reservoir, that might result in a more catastrophe than Fergana one.
The problem of the lack of irrigated lands in Central Asia is supplemented with the Aral Sea, which is getting dry. Salt evaporating from the sea bottom, negatively influence the areas under crops of the neighbouring Central Asian countries. Every year the area of deserts Karakum and Kyzylkum is increasing. These problems are born by the Central Asian land. Other problems are created by people being at the power. The latter, according to the author of the article, led the country to poverty following anti-democratic principals. These people are eager to gain power and money only.
In addition, there is also an Islamic factor. After Tajikistan, the next one will be Uzbekistan (Fergana, Andizhan, Namangan are the centres of the future Islamic revolution, the researcher believes). The Talibs will be behind the revolution. In case of any disputes arise between the republics, the way to penetrate Central Asia will be opened for the Talibs.
22.08.99
THE GLOBE, basing on materials of the Kazakh Service of Radio �Liberty�
Rashid DYUSEMBAEV
ALMATY, August 23
(THE GLOBE)
The earthquake in Turkey is still the main theme in all mass media. THE GLOBE pays a lot of attention to the tragedy. The problem is very timely for Almaty due several reasons. First, the southern capital is situated in a seismic zone and representatives of different professions regularly predict a destructive earthquake. Second, in the light of the events in Turkey, where many buildings were destroyed like sandy castles, the quality of numerous constructions erected by Turkish constructing companies in Almaty and other Kazakhstan towns seems questionable (opinions of Kazakhstan experts in this regard you may read in the next issue of THE GLOBE). The representative of the Agency on extraordinary situations of RK in his interview to �Panorama� emphasised that the agency had no especial claims to Turkish companies.
But there is also the third problem, which is directly connected with the activity of the hosing co-operatives. It is known that the main task of municipal co-operatives is a correct exploitation and safety of the housing fund.
According to some municipal specialist, most housing co-operatives do not consider this task significant. They mainly do running repairs of entrances and roofing. Only some co-operatives change main systems in basements.
Meanwhile, the ill-timed liquidation of accidents in basements leads to reduction of buildings� steadiness.
Besides, many housing co-operatives do not stub trees and young plants growing from the foundation of their buildings, damaging it.
Taking into consideration the above-mentioned facts, as well as how little attention is being paid to strengthening and repairing of the main constructions, we may suppose that soon these buildings may break down without any earthquake.
The problem of housing co-operatives is very serious and significant. At the present time, the next reforms of the housing-municipal sphere are being actively discussed. The detailed material devoted to this theme will be published in the next issue of THE GLOBE.
Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova, President of ASaP
Almaty, Aug 23
21-31 of July, 1999
505 persons were questioned
Nationalities:
Kazakhs � 34.1%
Russians � 46.1%
Other European nationality �8.7%
Other Asian nationality � 10.3%
Every state, notwithstanding the degree of its democracy, has the official language. Even the most ideal democracy, guarantee the social equality, contains inequality as far as the language is concerned. To allay this inequality it is commonly accepted to teach the state language not taking into consideration the assimilation; to create guaranteed conditions to satisfy and develop requirements and interests of �other languages� groups living in the country.
General data
� The situation with study of the state language is not good in the southern capital.
� Only every 8th polled Almaty citizen consider it obligatory to study Kazakh language.
� Every 11th respondent who cannot speak the official language, feels his rights infringed.
National research data
Do you have a good command of Kazakh language? (in %)
|
|
Total |
Kazakhs |
Russians |
Other Asian |
Other European |
|
nationality |
nationality |
||||
|
Yes |
42.1 |
94.1 |
8.6 |
23.7 |
14.3 |
|
No |
57.9 |
5.9 |
91.4 |
76.3 |
85.7 |
� For the last year the number of Kazakh citizens who have a good command of Kazakh language has significantly increased (almost 3 times). There are two main reasons: 1. An active inflow of rural Kazakh population to the southern capital; 2. Increasing desire of the Kazakh population (especially of the youth) to make a state career. Today this career namely is the most attractive for people, as this is the sphere of the most social guarantees.
If you cannot speak Kazakh, do you think that you should obligatorily study the language? (in %)
|
|
Total |
Kazakhs |
Russians |
Other Asian |
Other European |
|
nationality |
nationality |
||||
|
Yes |
12.7 |
72.7 |
7.1 |
27.6 |
16.7 |
|
No |
87.3 |
27.3 |
92.9 |
72.4 |
83.3 |
If you cannot speak Kazakh, do you feel your rights of the citizen of the republic are infringed? (in %)
|
Total |
Kazakhs |
Russians |
Other Asian |
Other European |
|
|
|
|
|
|
nationality |
nationality |
|
Yes |
9.3 |
0.0 |
8.5 |
0.0 |
16.7 |
|
No |
90.7 |
100 |
91.5 |
100 |
83.3 |
Do you wish the most part of TV programs were in Kazakh? (in %)
|
Total |
Kazakhs |
Russians |
Other Asian |
Other European |
|
|
nationality |
nationality |
||||
|
Yes |
15.1 |
35.1 |
1.3 |
13.2 |
4.8 |
|
No |
59.8 |
35.6 |
75.9 |
71.1 |
66.7 |
|
It�s difficult to answer |
25 |
29.3 |
22.8 |
15.8 |
28.6 |
Probably, we should interpret this issue differentially: to increase the volume of Kazakh programs in the state TV channels, and to keep two-language programs (50% to 50%) of private TV channels.
People should have a choice, especially in such a difficult issue, as the national one. The forced unification of groups speaking different languages according to the Kazakh model is inadmissible. This will cause many different problems, while we are not in a position to settle them. The increase of TV broadcasting in Kazakh is a force measure. We should not forget that watching TV programs is the most popular entertainment of the Kazakhstan population. Having no other amortisation mechanisms to reduce aside negative effects of the reforms, except television, it is inappropriate to lose this one also.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
© 1998 IPA House. All Rights Reserved.