ELECTION

Monitor of public opinion

What a candidate to deputies of the Parliament should know ?

Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova, President of ASaP

Almaty, Aug 23

5-7 of Aug, 1999

�X� election circuit

1515 persons were questioned

Social-demographic portrait of the polled electors

� By sex: 48.3% of men and 51.7% of women

� By nationality: 36.1% of Kazakhs, 42.9% of Russians, 6.8% of other European nationality, 12.3% of other Asian nationality

� By age: 18 to 19 years � 7%, 20 to 29 years � 18.4%, 30 to 39 years � 22.3%, 40 to 49 years � 24.6%, 50 to 59 years � 13.3%, 60 and older � 14.5%.

� By education: 35.1% of people with high education, 10.2% � with uncompleted high education, 25.8% � with special technical education, 22.4% � with secondary education, 6.4% �with uncompleted secondary education.

� Data on the level of life standard and social-professional composition of electors are available at ASaP.

Analysis of the poll results

According to the poll results, approximately one-third part of the electors of the polled circuit will not pay attention to the propagandistic materials of candidates, while every ninth person will not open the door.

Will you be present at the meeting to get acquaintance with candidates nominated in your election district? (in %)

Options of the answers	Total
Yes	28.7
No	46.3
It�s difficult to answer	25.0

In a little less than a half of the polled election districts (45.1%), the specific weight of negative answers is very high: from 50% to 90% and higher.

Well, on one hand, the electors are against meeting with a candidate and are not going to get acquaintance with him; on the other hand, there is an obvious interest and intention to get acquainted with a candidate�s personality through his propagandistic materials.

The conclusion is as follows: the agitation-propagandistic work is to proceed a candidate�s meeting with electors and is supposed to prepare the latter for proper perception of the candidate and what he would say at the meeting.

For whom will the electors vote?

The results of the poll showed that the average electors will vote for that candidate who has a real program to overcome the crisis in the country, who has an experience of managerial work in state structures; and who will be able to demonstrate his strong political will.

Whom will you prefer while voting? (in %)

Options of the answers	Total
Candidate of parties and movements loyal to the authorities	8
Candidate of the opposition	13
Self-nominated candidate	5.6
It does not matter to me	29
I do not trust anybody	42.5
Others	1.8

For one-fifth part of the polled electors, the party of a candidate does not matter at all. Preference of candidates of the opposition in comparison with candidates of parties and movements loyal to the regime, as well as self-nominated candidates proves that the first ones are more popular and differentiable, as they are �sign figures�. Most self-nominated candidates are unknown and unpredictable, as it is not clear who is behind them and what shall we expect from them.

The analysis of the answers shows that most electors of the polled circuit will vote during the election according to the paternalist voting model, but not protest one.

Competition

Ratings of candidates by the specific weight of potential votes in the �X� circuit

G. Kasymov	7.7
M. Auezov	7.3
P. Svoik	5.3
S. Kuttykadam	4.5
B. Tursumbaev	4.1
S. Tereschenko	3.5
G. Abilsiitov	2.2
M. Ospanov	2.1
G. Aldamzharov	1.9
Sh. Omarov	0.7
I will vote for none of the above-mentioned	35.9
I have not decided yet	24.7

Some respondents put down names of candidates for whom they are ready to vote:

1. A. Kazhegeldin	4 votes
2. I. Savostina	3 votes
3. S. Abdildin	3 votes
4. O. Suleimenov	1 vote
5. M. Ismailov	1 vote
6. I. Abilov	1 vote
7. K. Yerezhepov	1 vote

There are only two candidates (G. Kasymov and M. Auezov) who collected more than 7% of votes, having achieved this they may expect to be returned the registration fee amount, if they are not elected to the Parliament.

Election campaign slogans

Only 2 slogans out of 6 proposed ones were effective, having attracted respondents� votes:

1. Protection of the human being from any threats to his security!

2. Economic growth should be oriented to social requirements and be profitable for every Kazakhstan citizen!

Platform

What legislative initiatives should be realised by candidates when they will become deputies of the Parliament? (in %)

Options of the answers	Total
Guarantee of everybody�s equality before the law	21.4
Protection of the Constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens	19.5
Establishment of the effective Parliamentary control for the government�s activity	7.7
Strengthening responsibility of state managerial organisations for the economic collapse and blocking mechanisms of social protection of the population	12.4
Toughening sanctions against enterprises polluting the environment	11.1
Making the tax legislation compliant with the social justness principle	9.3
Legislative solution of the issue regarding the recommenced state control for nationally significant objects, which are able to replenish the state budget	8.1
Introduction of akims� appointment by election	6.1
Increasing role of self-governing	3.2
Others	1.1

Every polled elector marked approximately 3 alternatives.

The results of the poll allow to make a portrait, platform and program of a candidate to deputies of the Parliament, taking into consideration the prevailing opinion of the electors.