Curb Islamic Militants
Sept 16 (Stratfor)
Chinese concern over the spread of Islamic militancy in Kyrgyzstan and in the Xinjiang province may provide a clue to the recent cooling of relations between the Taleban and its chief sponsor, Pakistan.
On September 15, Agence France-Presse reported that Taleban spokesman Wakil Ahmed Mutawakkel said the number of Pakistani �volunteers� was being reduced because �we don�t count on them.� This announcement makes no sense at this juncture. Effectively, the Taleban are announcing that they are being weakened with several weeks to go in the Afghan campaigning season. The only explanation that makes sense is that someone is putting pressure on the Pakistanis to reduce their involvement in Afghanistan.
The suspects would be Russia, Iran, the U.S. and China. Russia supports the opposition Northern Alliance and as such would have little influence over Pakistani policy. Iran, which also supports the Northern Alliance, is a regional competitor to Pakistan and as such aiding the Pakistanis, assuming that they had anything to offer, would disadvantage them strategically. The U.S. is not really interested in seeing the Northern Alliance regain control of all of Afghanistan because it would significantly increase Russia�s influence in the region and also weaken Pakistan strategically. This leaves us with China, which has a long history of cooperation with Pakistan and now has a bone to pick with the Taleban.
China may be behind Pakistan�s recent enthusiasm for peacemaking in Afghanistan. The Pakistani government has been at the forefront of the latest peace attempts, even though a peace based on current lines of control is against Taleban interests because they feel like they can achieve a settlement militarily.
China has also made it clear that it does not support pro-Islamic Pakistani foreign policy by refusing to assist Pakistan during the Kashmir crisis, which was initiated by Islamic militants. Since things in Kashmir have cooled down, China has suddenly warmed to Pakistan again, even rushing through a shipment of 80 F-7 fighter planes during the height of the Taiwan crisis and continuing its shipments of missile technology.
China recognizes that Pakistan is a key element in its own strategy to limit the spread of Islamic militancy. The Taleban are clearly exporters of Islamic militancy and may have connections with Islamic militants in Kyrgyzstan and in the Xinjiang province. China believes that limiting the Taleban�s effectiveness, or better yet, insuring their defeat, would deal a decisive blow to Islamic militancy throughout the region.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
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