Aidar AKHMETOV
ALMATY, Dec 20 (THE GLOBE)
Kazakhstan mainly exports crude oil. This is a fact, and it is foolishly to refuse from it or to be ashamed of it. Prices of crude are significantly lower in the domestic market than in the world one. But the price of the Kazakhstani finished product (petrol) is higher than in other countries. So, one liter of our petrol AI-95 costs about US$ 0.36. in the USA the cost of similar petrol is US$ 0.342.
Comparing we may learn not only petrol prices. Let�s consider (once again?) the data on the Russian oil export. The northern neighbor annually exports about 100 million tons of oil. This is approximately 5 times more than the Kazakhstani oil export. However, if we consider the number of the population in Kazakhstan, which is ten times less than the Russian one, the production of oil (cast iron and steel) per capita in Kazakhstan is at least twice higher. Unlike the forgotten Soviet slogan, we talk of money in cash, the so-called oil dollars.
By the way, about dollars. Within the last two months there was an interesting situation in the world�s oil market: the oil price exceeded US$ 0.26 per 1 barrel.
Let�s continue our comparative analysis. In Russia the �oil� result is evident: the debt towards pensions has been paid off, people from budget organizations regularly receive their salaries (moreover, nobody abandoned social privileges in Russia). Russia is to repay main part of debts of the former USSR> we should not forget that our neighbors� deductions to the development of the military complex have significantly increased. Besides, there is Chechnya, where the antiterrorist campaign is also financed by the budget.
Kazakhstan does not conduct any global campaigns against terrorists. We should avoid talking of our army � we should not betray a secrete. We will not mention also social privileges: recently such notions have been abandoned in the country. As far as external debts are concerned, the young generation will have to reimburse them.
We have just to ask a foolish question: where is money? Why didn�t oil dollars stop fast stagnation of standard of life? Where are they, Kazakhstani oil dollars, when it is necessary to pay social grants and due salaries.
Angry people accuse Astana. Is it true? Are �miserable� expenses towards construction of buildings of ministries comparable with amounts to be gained for oil? Besides, we should trust statements that �only non-budget money� are spent to improve the northern capital�. Even if these statements are not true, we should be proud, no state in the world has such an expensive (and native) capital.
More angry people state that the Millenium Party to be held in Astana is guilty. Again it is not true. For this money it is possible to invite minimum the population of the entire country to the party. Maybe, this is our state�s present to the people at the eve of the third millenium? We, however, would not accept such an expensive present.
Very angry people say that the above-mentioned dollars are crackling in somebody�s pockets. This version cannot withstand any critics at all. When we talk of one-third part of the national budget (that is approximately the value of our oil), we should not even think of a banal and trivial thefts.
That is why the question remains stupid and open.
Oil Problem at the Eve of Nazarbaev�s Visit
After at the Istanbul Summit OSCE countries signed the treaty on the Baku-Ceykhan oil pipeline, discussions on oil and its transportation became more active. Nazarbaev also participated in the ceremony of signing the treaty. At this phase for Turkey and the USA, which have been working on this project for some years, Kazakhstan is a significant problem, though the status of the latter regarding construction and utilization of the pipeline is still unclear. Due to this, despite contradictory development of democracy in our country, the US administration invited Nazarbaev to Washington.
For the United States that are eager to influence the entire world in the 21st century, Kazakhstan and its oil resources are significant. In the result of prospecting works, prognoses regarding the Tengiz oilfield have been prepared. Oil resources at Tengiz are estimated from 9 to 13.5 billion barrels. The Kashagan shelf, where drilling works have been started, may contain 3 times more.
For the USA transportation of such a big volume of oil to Ceykhan port in southern Turkey via Azerbaijan and Georgia, but not through Russia is very profitable. Thus, Moscow�s influence on Central Asian countries and Caucasus will decrease. As a result, former Soviet Central Asian republics may gradually overcome Russia�s influence and become free. For western countries this project also profitable, as they may get rid of OPEC�s monopoly, organized by Arabic countries and to influence oil prices. That is why Turkey and the USA absolutely support the project on the pipeline 1,800 km in length worth US$ 2 billion 400 million.
While signing the contract on the Baku-Ceykhan pipeline Nazarbaev did not undertake any concrete responsibilities regarding how much oil Kazakhstan will sent to the West annually. It may seem that Kazakhstani President is still following Russia, as it is necessary to build also the pipeline Tengiz-Novorossyisk via the northern neighbor�s territory.
Apart from these projects, they consider the pipeline Western Kazakhstan � Western China. There were as well bilateral agreements with Iran. In this situation our government has right to choose the most appropriate and profitable project to transport Kazakhstani oil to the world�s market. If we first of all associate oil with the policy, oil pipelines are to become a factor to improve Kazakhstan�s foreign policy. The issue regarding the territory chosen for the pipelines and countries supporting them is to be considered as the main one under the new geopolitical conditions.
The Project Tengiz- Novorossyisk, i.e. CPC was established with the participation of Russia. It is not to go via Chechnya, Stavropol oblast, that is why no war menaces the pipeline today. This project may be approved as a factor that will put oil relations between Russia and Kazakhstan in order. But the pipeline Baku-Ceykhan is also significant for Kazakhstan. In this case Kazakhstan will have a chance to become absolutely independent on Russia, as well as to get rid of Iranian-Kazakhstani ties, that US do not approve. To participate in the project as a strategic partner the republic will not have to incur any great expenses, as Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey are mainly responsible for financing. Besides, the oil pipeline will began to function in the early 2004. Then it will be possible to transfer Caspian oil from the pipeline Tengiz-Novorossyisk via Baku and Ceykhan. In general, this project is profitable for Kazakhstan from both geopolitical and economic points of view.
Besides, the fate of the oil pipeline to Iran is still unknown. Moreover, Turkmenistan separates the two countries. Recently China delays works on the pipeline from western Kazakhstan to western China. Some experts consider this project may be unrealized at all due to economic inappropriateness. This is the situation with the export of Caspian oil at the eve of President Nazarbaev�s visit to the USA.
15.12.99
THE GLOBE based on materials from Kazakh Service of Radio Liberty
(Full variant, translated from Kazakh by THE GLOBE)
Comments by THE GLOBE: Obviously, efficacy of the future oil pipelines depends on results of the drilling by OKIOC. Until the oil reserves are unknown, it is too early to speak of economic appropriateness of the project Baku-Ceykhan. Moreover, its realization mainly depends on Kazakhstan, as Azerbaijan will not be able to provide sufficient oil volumes. Taking into consideration importance of transportation of Kazakhstani oil for the USA, the latter hope greatly for our oil.
America�s especial strategic interest in the Caspian region is to support and to lobby politically oil projects that narrow dependence on both Iran and Russia. From this point of view the project Baku-Ceykhan is the most appropriate for the US from the political point of view as well. The US would like to exclude Iran from oil transportation projects.
In this situation Kazakhstan has to consider everything and approve projects that will earn more political and economic profit, a journalist from the Kazakh Service of Radio Liberty says. The country should not overcome independence of one state in order to become dependent on another one.
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