Andrey Tsalyuk
Oct.15 (IRBIS)
This week of the republican exchange currency market has passed quietly and without any essential difference in the set of rates forming factors in comparison with previous week - despite of elections and appointments in the government.
Perhaps, the main news it appointment of Grigory Marchenko as the Chapter of the National Bank. This news was unequivocally positive accepted by the market. Other assignments in the top echelons of authority were not so interested for the professional market participants.
Destiny of Uraz Dzhandosov - figure, which influence on the financial policy of country was difficult to overestimate - remains unknown. Any authentic information concerning his appointment is absent.
The main rate forming factor of the week is constraint of banks in the free means caused by their customers quarter budget payments. Under influence of this factor the dollar rate has been decreasing during the week with short-term corrections.
Such conclusion is confirmed by the extremely active trades in KASE� repo sector, by small volumes of drawing on the State Securities placement auctions and by constant high cost of short money for the last time.
In opinion of the IRBIS experts, obligatory sales of the exporters� proceeds on KASE did not influence the exchange rate so strong, as it was in the last week. At the same time this factor still be main factor for forming of the long-term tendency. Volume of the dollar supply remained significant, to what the high volumes of trades testify, and, with rare exception, this supply was not been counterbalanced by demand.
The National Bank could not help using such an advantage. Most likely, this week the money base of country will grow again, and it is very important for the forecast for the following period.
The final day of period has shown, that the State Securities redemption, because of it�s small volume, did not essentially influence the tenge market liquidity. The action of this factor to the quotations was rather psychological. At the last hours before the Friday�s market closing dollar did not manage to become stronger.
The results of the analysis conducted by IRBIS, allow to assume, that to the middle of the next week (including Wednesday) the dollar rate will continue to decrease under influence of tenge deficiency. The tenge revaluation rate will hardly exceed present level (45.4% p.a. for the last 7 days), that is explained by money base growth during last two days.
Second half of the next week will be characterized by very large volume of State Securities redemption - 4.430 billion tenges. It is almost twice more, than in this week. Considering growing money base, it is possible to assume that the dollar demand will be completely reanimated on Thursday and Friday, and the banks will be able to begin the restoration of its currency positions. Furthermore, as statistical data show, volume of the exporters� proceeds sale will be reduced toward the end of a month.
Thus, the experts of IRBIS consider that the second half of next week will be characterized by the dollar rate growing.
It is too difficult to evaluate the resulting change of USD/KZT market rate in the end of the next week.
Capitalization of the market of Non-state Security of Kazakhstan on October 15 - $1,041.7 million
/IRBIS, Oct.15, 99/ - On October 15 capitalization of the exchange market of Non-state Securities of Kazakhstan (A + B + N without the State Block of Shares) has amounted to $1,041.7 million. For two weeks capitalization has grown by $1,129. The deals can be made on KASE today in 82 tools of the 61 companies and 5 state blocks of shares.
Statistics: Week volume of USD transactions on KASE � $62.980 million
/IRBIS, Oct.15, 99/ - For US dollar within the 42nd week (October 11 - October 17) on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 1,316 transactions totaling $62.980 million were made at average session volume of $12.596 million.
Tenge devaluation, calculated at the average weighted market rate, is evaluated by the one week trend of minus 45.40% p.a. (tenge revaluated).
In the previous week 1316 deals totaling $80.555 million at average session volume of $16.111 million were made. During that period tenge devaluation rate has made 36.0% p.a.
Devaluation of tenge towards US dollar, calculated at average weighted market rate on October 15, is 85.8% p.a. � from the beginning of the current year and 46.1% p.a. � for the last 30 days.
For deutsche mark 17 transactions totaling DEM175,000 were made. The deutsche mark rate has increased by 0.84%, that corresponds to 26.9% p.a. of the week average rate of tenge devaluation.
For Euro 3 deals on the sum of EU140,000 were made. The Euro rate has increased by 0.2%, that corresponds to 33.7% p.a. of the week average rate of tenge devaluation.
Total volume of the transactions in foreign currency within the 42nd week is 8,942.0 million tenges or $63,226,200.
At KASE USD exchange rate continues to fall due to shortage of tenge
/IRBIS, Oct.18, 99/ � The next trades in US dollar, Deutsche mark and Euro were held at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE). 25 banks participated in the trades.
Today the trades were opened in the US dollar at 140.60 tenge per unit, but this price was not suitable to the market conjuncture. The first price compromise, supported by noticeable trade volume, was found by the participants at 140.55, and after a slight (down to 140.52) and temporary fall of the exchange rate the dollar began to gain quickly. In this phase of the trades demand was great and sellers were able to raise the market up to 140.60.
The second half of the session went in an equilibrium market within 140.58-140.60 price range. The trades were closed at � 140.57/58 tenge per dollar.
214 deals were made in US dollars. Weighted average dollar exchange rate made 140.58 (-0.25). Volume of the session - $7.300 mln (-$3.835 mln). Exchange rate fluctuation during the trade did not exceed0.07%.
Impressions made by the market: slight increase of demand, which could be observed in the second half of the trades, and decrease of supply of dollars, which turned into reduction of a trade volume. In general, the market seemed to be balanced. Apparent prevalence of supply over demand in the first half of session changed the trend in the second half.
IRBIS analysts assume the possibility of exporters� earnings affecting the exchange rate dynamics.
One hour after closing of the trades on over-the-counter market of Kazakhstan dollar was quoted at 140.55/65 tenge per unit, two hours later quotations remained the same.
2 deals were made in Deutsche mark. Weighted average exchange rate of the mark � 78.30 (-0.05) tenge per unit. Trade volume � DEM20 (-5) thousand. At closing of the session Deutsche mark was quoted at 78.24/36 tenge per unit.
3 deals were made in euro. Weighted average exchange rate of the euro � 152.24 (+1.14) tenge per unit. Trade volume � EUR25 (-115) thousand. At closing of the session euro was asked for 152.11 tenge per unit, with no offer.
Oct 18 (IRBIS)
According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, for the last week the gross gold and currency reserves of Kazakhstan increased from US$ 1 614.1 million (as of October 8, 1999) to US$ 1 624.4 million.
As of October 15 the net gold and currency reserves of Kazakhstan were US$ 1 103.7 million, i.e. US$ 1 094.4 million more than on October 8.
The below is the table characterising international reserves of the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the monetary base as of October 15, 1999 (in comparison with October 8):
| At current prices | At fixed prices* | |||
| 15.10.99 | 08.10.99 | 15.10.99 | 08.10.99 | |
| Gross international reserves in USD million | 1624.4 | 1091.5 | 532.8 | 1614.1 |
| Including: assets in hard currency | 1091,5 | 1089,1 | 1091,5 | 1089,1 |
| gold | 532,8 | 525,0 | 474,7 | 474,6 |
| Net international reserves in US$ million* * | 1103,7 | 1094,4 | 1045,6 | 1043,9 |
| Monetary base in billion tenge | 94,3 | 91,2 | 94,3 | 91,2 |
| KZT/USD (as in the end of the period) | 141,0 | 141,0 | 83,8 | 83,8 |
| Price of gold in USD (per 1 tr. ounce) | 322,65 | 318,00 | 287,45 | 287,45 |
* Gold is given in prices of the end of 1998 (US$287.45 per 1 tr. ounce).
** Net international reserves is the difference between gross reserves and liabilities in hard currency.
AMS/DR/PWasb
OSLO/AMSTELVEEN
Oct 18
(Joint Press Release)
Braathens and KLM wish to further strengthen their ties and currently initiating talks on a potential joint venture. The initiative meets Braathens and KLM goals for building a strong joint position in the Nordic region of Europe. The scope and conditions as well as identifying the parts of their business to be included in this joint venture will be central elements in the analysis to be conducted. A joint venture could include Braathens� entire route network, or be limited to specific routes. Braathens will of course continue to operate as a separate entity with the Braathens name as today.
The objective of a joint venture will be to build on each individual partner�s strengths and current market position in order to further develop and strengthen the two airlines� joint position. KLM has experience of this type of co-operation through its alliances with Northwest Airlines, Kenya Airways and Alitalia. These joint ventures are designed to generate significant customer benefits, higher efficiency, a stronger market position and growth. The ultimate goal is to ensure that overall financial results improve on those of the individual airlines. Profit and risk sharing are key areas of KLM�s current joint venture projects.
�KLM and Braathens believe that closer cooperation will serve both airlines and enable Braathens to strengthen and further develop its market position,� says Braathens Group Chief Executive Officer Arne A. Jensen.
AMS/DR/PWasb
Oct 13
(PRIME-TASS)
Kazakhstan is going soon to import a big batch of oil products from China to reduce wholesale and retail prices of petrol and diesel fuel, a source in Astana announced on Wednesday to PRIME-TASS.
According to the source, in the beginning of October the first lot of Chinese petrol and diesel fuel has been delivered to Almaty. In the result, by October 10 retail prices of petrol A-80 have reduced from 41 to 39 tenge per 1 litre (100 tenge = 18.17 roubles), AI-91 � from 46 to 42 tenge and diesel fuel � from 28 to 22 tenge.
Since the beginning of July to the beginning of October, 1999 in Astana retail prices of diesel fuel increased from 13-15 to 20-22 tenge per 1 litre, petrol A-76 � from 28-35 to 35-36 tenge, and in Almaty from 17 to 30 tenge and from 29-30 to 39 tenge (petrol A-80) respectively, in Southern Kazakhstan � from 10-11 to 21.5-24 tenge and from 26-28 to 38-39 tenge, in Northern Kazakhstan � from 14 to 20-21 tenge and from 29 to 33-34 tenge, in Eastern Kazakhstan � from 14 to 20-21 tenge and from 31-32 to 36-37 tenge per 1 litre.
All Over the Globe is published by IPA House.
© 1998 IPA House. All Rights Reserved.