OPINION

Whom does Kazakhstan future depend on?

From editorial staff

Childish left-wing disease of Kazakhstan

Communism is the Soviet power plus Electrification of the entire country.

Vladimir I. Lenin

Capitalism in Russia is Satanic power plus Commercialization of the entire country.

Edichka A. Zyuganoff

Capitalism in Kazakhstan is Astanic power plus Kazcommercialization of the entire country.

THE GLOBE

It is perfectly obvious that Kazakhstan has arrived at a new phase of its development. It concerns (i) political life of the country after the presidential election, (ii) the economy of the country after the collapse of the world� s prices of raw materials, (iii) the gamut of development paradigms. It is obvious that Kazakhstan�s young state is really and successively ailing with a whole range of children�s illnesses. One may begin with the Dutch disease of macro-economy, which occurs when one stake�s the future of whole the country on exclusively oil only to be crushed down (forever?). We also suffer from the impudent and naive repetition of the experiments of Peter I to shift the capital on the threshold of the third millenium. The complicated constructions of the political structure of the country which are actually very simple combinations intended for distribution of blessings and posts in the steppes of Northern Palmira continues to make a lot of people sick. Stability based on �the God knows what�, which is getting more and more alike stagnation is also getting particularly painful. Our other diseases include: the polarization of the society, an absence of ideas and too much rhetoric, a weak Parliament and weak authorities. They include�

All of these processes take place against a background of comparatively poor discussion and analysis of the total situation. First of all, of course, we may mark out publications of Nurbulat Masanov introducing his idea of a patronage-client system of the development of Kazakhstan�s establishment (see, e.g. �Central Asia� magazine published in Sweden, January, 1999). Nurlan Amrekulov� s analysis in his famous book with references to the clans and the signs of the zodiac, is curious as well. Steven Fish� s article regarding oil as a factor demoralizing development of the entire range of the republican development � from economy to policy, which was published in �Kazakhstan energy� seems to be interesting.

But in the process of conduction of the presidential election and on the threshold of the parliamentary disputes is a genre new for Kazakstan - a direct attack to the President is being developed. This form of publicism Russia endured calmly and long ago. This reaction raised the popularity of pro-Kazhegeldin newspapers in the last year. And it is at the same time, one of the unavoidable forms of development of political discussions in the country; in any country: the USA, Russia, Korea� Maybe not in China, Afghanistan or Indonesia a� la Suharto.

The proposed below article by �Orleu� leader Seidakhmet Kuttykadam is obviously outside of this number. Actually without any serious analysis, but rigidly enough in a populist manner the author strikes the point. It seems to me that through this article we may understand how �Orleu� eagles will execute all their pre-election agitation, at least its main part.

But �Orleu� does not seem to have too many ideas either. Some allusions to intelligentsia� But you should judge yourself.

Seidakhmet Kuttykadam

Chairman of public movement �Orleu�

ALMATY, March 17

(Specially for the GLOBE)

A catastrophic chain of events has in essence, led our young state to bankruptcy. The main personal fault for this is of course, Nursultan Nazarbaev, who for 10 years has individually been governing the country.

Our efforts to create a market have been unsuccessful. The market means free competition with a developed consumers� demand. We have neither of these. Almost all the state property has been privatized by a small group of persons being at the state sinecure, or has been sold to the foreign companies with either bad reputations or to the fictitious ones.

Nursultan Nazarbaev likes to repeat that the world crisis will not touch us. And though it may seem paradoxical, in a way he is right. The crisis will not touch us not due to our force, but due to our miserable share of the world� s finance and production volumes. Further, we are in such a deep gulf, that we seem to be safe from any world storms.

As far as sovereignty is concerned, it is also under real threat.

Giving 500 square kilometers of our indigenous territory to China, sets a very dangerous precedent. The gesture may only serve raise appetites of not only the Eastern dragon, but of our other neighbors as well.

If the events develop in the same direction, Kazakhstan will have no future at all.

At present Kazakhstan has practically no worthwhile strategic allies on the world foreign-policy arena.

Europe and USA have turned away. Turkey was offended. The Uzbeks, in spite of their own difficulties, are maliciously mocking at us. Yeltsin�s leaving of the political scene is a matter of near future. Whoever succeeds the Yeltsin regime, he won�t be a friend of our President. The Chinese dragon is digesting a prey captured from us, to wait for his �gratefulness� is to wait in vain.

The last official report of the USA State Department concerning the observation of human rights in Kazakhstan made a very harsh evaluation of our regime. This means that the ground is slipping under Nursultan Nazarbaev� s feet.

Only that power can be stable, which takes care of the majority of its people and rests upon it. If the power is depends upon something else and if it is isolated from the world, things may come to a bad end. But in this case the following question arises: why does our regime still exist? There are a lot of reasons which are mainly connected with local social psychology brought up for many centuries.

Our society was isolated from big policy and its fate was determined by its leaders.

This fatal predetermination of the Power caused universal fear, passiveness, weak will and reluctance to work hard, as nothing depended on the results of work, everything depended on the leaders� wish. Until we overcome this fear and understand, that the regime is mainly based on it, we won� t be able to change anything - either in our own fate or in fate of our country.

The next extra-ordinal parliamentary election seems ready to take place. This next election will most probably be announced after the registration of the newest party �Otan.� Headed by the ex-prime-minister Sergei Tereschenko, the party just needs a little time to be able to put forward their candidates. To guarantee a majority in the Parliament to this pro-governmental colossus on clay feet is the duty of the Central Election Committee. Then the leader will begin the next rearrangements of his old functionaries, as he is still able to demonstrate his power in this field. The first characteristic displacements show that he acts absolutely openly and cynically: Let�s say two governors in the west had not provided him with the required percentage of electors, he at once dismissed them.

However, all of these palace intrigues will be of no benefit. The President has driven himself into a corner. Nazarbayev could not govern the more or less prosperous sovereign country and drove it to collapse. The Kazakh President has driven his people to property, and brought in a cynical, untalented, corrupted and insatiable bureaucracy. How can the President now hope that with its help he will be able to lead his people from a desert of despair?

A definite part of responsibility for the current situation is to be undertaken by opposition, either because of political passiveness of the leaders or their exorbitant ambitions and inability to resist the temptations of power.

Sometimes they wonder whether anybody can take our people out of quagmire, where they were brought.

The �Orleu� movement headed by me proposes the following answer.

First of all, it is necessary to stop corruption and criminality, to give all of Kazakhstan�s citizens a chance to reveal their internal potential, to create equally competitive circumstances for all the businessmen and owners of the companies, and to make everybody equal before the Law without any exceptions.

We should understand, that at present we are literally talking about the life and death of our state and our people. We can be saved only by ourselves. That is why we should get rid of our fear, laziness and indifference to our Motherland and our own fate.

Many peoples sacrificed hundreds of thousand lives for the sake of freedom and democracy. We sometimes are afraid of losing our imaginary and fragile prosperity. The longer we will be so torpid, the more difficult it will be for us to make this courageous effort.

Our future will depend on what political side our businessmen and owners of the companies, scientists and cultural workers, peasants and workers will join�

How are you, student?

A joint project of the Association of sociologists and politologists and, THE GLOBE:

� Almaty students recruitment bureau�

Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova, President ASaP

Almaty

In the 1st ten days of March

800 students of the state and

private institutes were polled.

The economic crisis struck hard at the standard of living of the republican population. The growing cost of living and particularly the rising expenses of higher education may negatively influence the �geographical mobility� of young people from different regions of Kazakhstan entering Almaty�s institutes. It is probable that in near future more and more regional institutes will close. Many Kazakh families are finding it hard to pay for their children� s education, especially in such expensive cities as Almaty.

Do you receive a grant? (% in the column)

What can a student spend his grant on, if its maximum size does exceed tenge 2000/month and it is paid irregularly?

How do you spend your grant? (% in the column)

The main sources of income of the polled students are as follows: (% in the column)

The average salary of a working student, as a rule, does not exceed USD 100. According to the poll data, only every seventeenth student works. Every tenth student keeps going with occasional earnings.

Can our students dress in the latest fashion and at the same time eat good products?

A society, which �sells� its fundamental resource, students loses everything. And everything can be taken away from such a society.

Anticipating Oscar

Michail Sergeev

ALMATY, March 18

(THE GLOBE)

On May, 16, 1929, the first ceremony handing premiums of the American Academy of Cinema Arts and Sciences was held in Hollywood. In the middle of 30-s, this prize was named Oscar. From that time the prestige of this premium grew significantly and its glory crossed the borders of the United States. Not only the history of American cinematography, but of the entire world has been reflected in 70-years of Oscar. On March, 21, 1999, the 71st solemn ceremony of handing out of the cherished statuettes will be held. Who will be lucky this time? Will the majority of the �golden men� be given to a single leader as it happened in the last year with �Titanic� of James Cameron, or will academicians justly decide to mark out as big as possible number of nominees?

�Elizabeth� was nominated for seven Oscars

Tom Hanks playing Capt. Miller in �Saving Private Ryan�

The Netherland proverbs

(Continued from # 20(338))

Timur Beisembiev

ALMATY (Specially for THE GLOBE)

The proverbs given below belong to the Dutch and Flemish peoples, who contributed a lot to the world culture and take a special honorable place among the high-developed countries. Their historical motherland - the nowadays Netherlands, more than half of Belgium and the north-western corrner of France (Westhoek) - is unique in a way due to its geographical location: by land it borders on German- and French-speaking countries and by sea � it is not far from Britain.

As many people know English and/or German languages, the original Dutch proverb texts are also adduced, since they can be understood by a reader. That�s why the proverbs are given in Dutch alphabetical order. In the original text rhymed proverbs are set up in italics.

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