Michael Paterson

ALMATY, Feb 18

(THE GLOBE)

Last Tuesday marked the 10th anniversary of the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. Solemn ceremonies were held throughout the FSU to commemorate the dead. Mourners had much to reflect upon.

The war and its aftermath resulted in many profound and unexpected effects. Who could have foreseen for instance, that Soviet society could be jarred into political activism, eventually forcing the communist leadership to retreat from an aggressive, global foreign policy. Many experts argue that the failure of Afghanistan sped the collapse of the Soviet Empire. At the very least, the humiliation of the Soviet military shocked both west and east, by exposing its vulnerabilities when faced by a determined adversary.

A decade has passed since General Boris Gromov retreated with the last 400 troops across the Afghan border - just five minutes before the UN deadline. The withdrawal ended a debacle for the Soviet military which began a little over nine years earlier, when Moscow rushed troops into Afghanistan to prop up a tottering Communist regime in Kabul. The catalyst was the killing of the regime�s Moscow-backed leader, Nur Mohammad Taraki, in a gun battle between his forces and those of his more Westward-looking prime minister. But what was supposed to be a limited engagement ended up lasting an excruciating ten years.

Officially, the disasterous campaign extinguished the lives of 14 453 Soviet soldiers - though some experts believe the figure to be up to three times higher. Most of the survivors continue to suffer. Ten years after their return, many of the physically and emotionally scarred veterans have been condemned to poverty. The funds of the veterans associations set up to support them continue to mysteriously disappear and be eroded by inflation.

Even though the number of soldiers involved in the war composed only ten percent of the Soviet Armed Forces, and these forces withdrew in relatively good order - the campaign proved a devastating blow to the military industrial complex. What was supposed to be a short and decisive showcase of Soviet military might against a ragtag band of freedom fighters dragged on for ten years and ended in humilating defeat. The Afghan campaign is often referred to as Russia�s Vietnam. The morale of the Russian army still has not recovered from the disaster, but continues to deteriorate.

Until the Afghan campaign, the prestige of the army in society was not openly questioned. Able to point to its proud achievements in protecting the Soviet people, the military complex could count upon general support for the huge resources devoted to the defense of the country. However, as the losses from the war mounted, questions began to be asked. First to appear were mothers frustrated and anxious about the fate of their sons. But by the end of the war, the editorials of prominent newspapers confirmed the lack of public support. Commentaries not only questioned the secrecy of the decisionmaking process, but began publishing detailed accounts of Soviet atrocities. This would have been unthinkable before Glasnost.

Many analysts now believe that the Afghan war hastened the unravelling of the Soviet empire. Proponents of this thesis point not only to the huge drain which the war imposed on Soviet resources, but more importantly the extent to which public faith in the USSR�s leadership and its institutions was shaken. Many argue that the fall of the Berlin wall a mere 10 months after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan was not coincidental.

The withdrawal of the Soviets from Afghanistan caused just as much shock in the west as the east. The Americans who supplied the Afghans with weaponry never really believed that a small, poorly armed band of ragtag fighters could defeat a superpower. Earlier Soviet military interventions in the Ukraine (1945-1951), East Germany (1953), Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968) were all very successful. Improvements in military hardware seemed to favour the Soviets even more. At the beginning of the war, some Afghans faced Soviet tanks and aircraft with flintlocks. Rather, the purpose of American assistance was to be a constant thorn to Soviet operations and a drain on its military resources.

But what the Vietnamese proved in their war with the USA, the Afghan people demonstrated once again. If a people is determined enough and has the ability to endure, even a vastly superior military power can be defeated. Guerillas do not have to win major battles, they need only make the costs of a protracted engagement greater than what the invading power is willing to absorb. This strategy has been since been duplicated by the technicals in Somalia and paramilitary forces in Bosnia.

Unfortunately, the guerilla strategy of holding out came at a tremendous cost. As devastating as the war was to the Russians, the damage inflicted upon the defeated pales in comparison to the suffering experienced by the Afghan people. Out of a pre-war population of 15 million, an estimated 1.3 million Afghans (mostly civilians) were killed by the Soviet army. Approximately 5.5 million people were forced to flee the country, and another 2 million were required to relocate within the country.

The legacy of the war continues to haunt the Afghans. Landmines left behind will not stop killing and maiming. The country has been unable to rebuild the physical infrastructure needed for economic growth. Public services continue to deteriorate. The decentralization of factions of resistance fighters which was so effective in fighting the central authorities has made large swathes of the country ungovernable.

Most importantly the fighting has not stopped. In 1992, the Mujahadin succeeded in ousting and hanging the last vestige of Soviet power, Dr Najibullah. There was a brief hope of peace. Unfortunately, without the common foe the rebels immediately turned upon each other. Two years later, in the fight for political spoils between the new President Burhanuddin Rabbani and his Prime Minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyr, 70% of the capital city Kabul was destroyed.

In September of 1994, the religious army of the Taliban entered the war and began to sweep across the country. By August of 1998, Taliban troops had succeeded in consolidating control of 90% of the country and eliminating all serious opposition except Rabbani�s Jamiat-e-Islami militia. But the severe brand of Islam imposed by the Taliban - effectively imprisoning women in their homes, banning music, and sanctioning public execution and delimbing has been unpopular with many. Surely, the Soviet regime could not have been much worse.

On February 16, Turkish authorities announced the capture of Turkey�s enemy number 1, Abdullah Odzhalan. Mr. Odzhalan is the leader of Kurdistan�s Labor Party, which has been fighting for the rights of the Kurdish people for 14 years.

On Monday the KLP leader was reported to be kidnapped by Turkish special services in Nairobi, where he was taking shelter at the Greek Embassy. It was a secret operation. However as early as Tuesday night, Kurdish activists organized mass protests all over Europe. The Kurd�s actions have been well coordinated and presumably prepared beforehand, as is evident by the scope of the operations. In this connection the Turkish Prime Minister�s statement that the Kurdish community had �already reached the end of their way� seems to be rather doubtful.

As early as last autumn during his house arrest in Italy the Kurds organized acts of self-immolation and went on mass hanger-strikes throughout the world. The participants said that even if the Apo (the name of Abdullah, which means �uncle� in Kurdish) would be extradited to Ankara, this would not bring the liberation movement to a stop.

Excellent co-ordination of actions, undertaken by Kurdish activists throughout the world, is witness to the fact that there is a single center to control their activities. Taking into consideration all these facts one may be quite sure that the KLP will not stop or suspend its activities.

After Odzhalan had been captured, the Kurdish people directed their principal blows at the Greek embassies in European countries and Russia. Greece always did its best to back the Kurdish movement as it has had hostile relations with Turkey for a long time. It is not yet clear how Odzhalan was captured. According one version the Greek Embassy in Kenya extradited the Apo to Turkish special services. Another version is that the agents of the Turkish secret service captured Odzhalan in an armed operation.

Greek officials reported that he had left the building of the embassy to go to the airport and presumably had been captured on his way there.

Some Athens newspapers called the situation �Greek Waterloo�.

According to mass media reports Abdullah Odzhalan tried to reach The Hague to ask for political asylum.

Mr. Odzhalan failed to obtain the political status in Europe. At the moment, officials of a number of countries have asked Turkey to fairly try the Kurdish leader with international observers accepted to the Court. Turkey has also been requested to avoid the use of capital punishment. However, Ankara has already forbidden Mr. Odzhalan�s attorney (currently in the Netherlands) from entering the country.

Despite the Turkish leaders� exaltations the Kurds are continuing their fight for liberation of Abdullah Odzhalan.

The Kurdish nation has an exiled parliament and a fifteen thousand of troops in the Turkish Kurdistan mountains. The struggle for independence is unlikely to stop.

by Hugh Nevill

NAIROBI, Feb 18 (AFP)

Kenyan sources are claiming that America�s CIA was involved in snatching Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan from Nairobi on Monday, and some maintain Israel�s Mossad was also involved, but details of the abduction remain murky.

What has become clear is that Kenya�s security services were deeply involved, despite point-blank denials by Foreign Minister Bonaya Godana at a press conference on Tuesday.

Both the US Central Intelligence agency and the Mossad have a strong presence in Nairobi, using it as their east African headquarters, intelligence sources say.

This presence has been beefed up since car-bomb attacks on the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam on August 7 last year which left 224 people dead, 12 of them Americans, and some 5,000 injured.

The following day, the Israelis sent a specialised army team to Nairobi which took over the search for survivors in the debris.

Washington accuses fugitive Saudi Arabian multi-millionaire Osama bin Laden of masterminding the bombings, and the CIA and Mossad are concentrating their efforts here on monitoring Arabs in east Africa, and African Moslems who might have ties with Arab terrorists.

Intelligence sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, say it was the Americans who tipped off the Kenyans to Ocalan�s presence here - he was sneaked into the country by Greek diplomats, arriving on a private plane under an assumed name - and that the Israelis were also aware of his presence.

The Americans and the Israelis then put diplomatic pressure on Kenya to return Ocalan to the Turks, they say.

Kenyan sources say Godana was opposed to handing him over, but was overruled by President Daniel arap Moi, who makes all major foreign policy decisions and is determined to remain on good terms with the United States and Israel.

But this decision blew up in his face, with demonstrators attacking three Kenyan embassies in Europe, forcing Nairobi to temporarily close all its diplomatic missions abroad and face the prospect of future terrorist attacks.

Workers fled a central Nairobi building housing the headquarters of Kenya�s immigration department on Thursday morning after an anonymous caller said a bomb had been placed there, but the bomb squad issued an all-clear after a sweep with sniffer-dogs.

Various sources give the following scenario for Ocalan�s abduction.

The Kenyan government put pressure on Greek ambassador George Costorlas to expel Ocalan from his residence, where he had been sheltering since February 2, and issued a formal deportation order.

On Monday, Ocalan left the residence in a car driven by a Kenyan, and with a Kenyan security man sitting beside him.

The independent Daily Nation newspaper reported Thursday that �reliable Kenyan security sources said the (Kenyan) intelligence services played a crucial role in the arrest and deportation.�

It quoted Greek diplomats here as saying Kenyan intelligence men seized Ocalan inside the residence.

Various sources here confirm the Greek version of what happened next - that the car, which was accompanied by several others, left the convoy on the way to the airport.

Ocalan was then put aboard a plane, said to be a French-built Falcon jet owned by a Turkish businessman, and flown back to Turkey for trial, handcuffed and blindfolded. The privately owned KTN television station reported Wednesday night: �sources now indicate that Ocalan�s arrest was a well co-ordinated affair between four countries: the host, Kenya, the middle-men, Greece, Turkey - which has been after Ocalan - and the fourth country, the United States. On the alleged US link, sources say the US government had pressured Kenyan authorities to hand over Ocalan to the Turkish intelligence.�

Several other people who arrived in Kenya on February 2 with Ocalan aboard a private jet remained at the residence Wednesday, from where two gave telephone interviews to Greek media.

But officials later told Kenyan journalists they were holding four Ocalan associates, and it was not clear if any remained in the residence on Thursday.