Sabit ZHUSUPOV,
Director of Kazakstan Institute of Social-economic Information and Prognosing
Almaty, August 14
(Specially for THE GLOBE)
Accurately a year has passed from the events when Russia was at the verge of default and the new Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov was appointed. To my mind, his appointment was appropriate, as Kirienko had touched the super-painful point of Russia (development of the oligarchic pyramids). After the most serious economic shock, the country needed a person who would be able to consolidate the society, and to show that Russia had a potential to overcome the economic crisis. That was for the first time when we thought that different branches of authorities were really formed in Russia and the GosDuma played a very significant role. But the further events (the dismissal of Primakov, and now the dismissal of Stepashin) prove that there are no miracles, and those peculiarities of the Russian political regime did not mean any serious, developed and authorised equal branches of the authorities.
The most interesting thing is that now the crystallisation process is taking place, i.e. moments which allow to understand the political situation in Russia and in the entire post-soviet space.
Transitologists call the phenomenon of the post-soviet countries �the super-presidential governing�, which is a natural continuation of the soviet period. In this regard, in the post-soviet space, where the clan term �soviet person�, �soviet� is the definition which describes the situation in the most accurate way.
The post-soviet period is absolutely unique in the world.
We see that there are some definite phases of the development of the post-soviet space.
The first phase I call a mobilisation one. The main characteristic feature of the decade, which we have come through, is redistribution of the property. Nothing more meaningful happened in our countries. We rapidly realised that there were big appropriators and small ones, which have nothing. This happened during an astonishingly short period, for a decade.
We should have applied for sure to other forms of redistribution of the property, based on consensus, i.e. on that ideological line, when interests of all people were to be taken into consideration. This would allow to make some progress. We constantly talk about the phenomenon of Japan often meaning a strong consolidation of the society. Probably, this is a foundation, as the political system where political actors act in different directions, is very unstable. And consequences are very tragic.
The mobilisation phase is connected with the super-presidential governing.
The super-presidential governing, the potential of which was formed in the end of 1980-s, is gradually getting obsolete. In this regard, such an aspect as the forming of the block �Otechestvo-All Russia� is especially important for me. I believe that there is no more significant event in the life of the post-soviet space, than the establishment of this block. This was a bell marking that the super-presidential governing is getting obsolete in Russia, i.e. is coming to its logical end.
The President�s administration along with the President Yeltsin are not interested in competition of the super-presidential phase. That is why they create different obstacles for �Luzhkov-Shaimiev� block.
We see that this phase is also getting obsolete in Kazakhstan. If the law on land had been approved, the mobilisation phase would have been logically ended.
In Russia there is another situation. Before the law on land was approved in Russia, many subjects of the federation had realised inefficacy of the super-presidential governing. But Russia is politically subjective, there are a lot of political actors, that is why everything happens earlier there. However, if before I considered that difference is 3 to 4 years, now Russian political events are prior to Kazakhstan similar ones by just 1 to 2 years.
Probably, we should mark the role of the opposition. The opposition is historically predetermined, as a role of a secondary actor, as the population has a great inertial potential that is why the most effective opposition is the communistic one.
The opposition�s role is to work to heighten political culture of the population as well as to form a foundation of a more flexible second phase.
Geopolitics
�The Energy of Kazakhstan�, a magazine-appendix to THE GLOBE presents the announcement of the article �Taliban Movement in Afghanistan� by Vladimir KUSHEV, a Russian professor. You may read the full variant of the article in the fourth number of �Kazakhstan Energy� which is being sold in the Supermarket �Ramstore�, at �Texaco� filling stations, in �Yubileiny�, near trading house �Zangar�, as well as in hotels The Regent Ankara and Hyatt Regency/Rachat Palace.
�Taliban Movement in Afghanistan�
by Vladimir KUSHEV, specially for the �Energy of Kazakhstan�
The Talibans� invasion of Afghanistan in the autumn of 1994 radically changed the civil character of the war, resulting in some changes in the political situation in the country. The first Taliban group appeared at the end of September in the Chaman region at the southern border and consisted of less than one thousand people. By the beginning of October, the contingent had captured the town of Spinbuldak. Unexpected by most people, the operation had actually been well-prepared beforehand. The Pakistan frontier troops had erected training camps along the Afghan border (except at the existing commanders� recruitment points), where hundreds of the Talibs were brought. By the beginning of the operations, the Talibs had left the medreses and camps in Kvetta region, and gathered together at the Pakistani-Afghan border. (We should note that even before the invasion, the Pakistani Minister of Internal Affairs Babar, who had travelled from Kandahar to Harat, sent word that Pakistan was going to open a trade route from Kvetta to Central Asia under an agreement concluded in 1992 between Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan).
After Spinbulak had been captured, on October 31 the frontier was crossed by 26 trucks of the Pakistani military-transport organisation, headed by a colonel of the secret service and destined for Ashgabad. When the trucks with its forty officer escort was stopped by the Mojahedeen, Pakistan considered the incidence a break in the agreement and it became a casus belli. About four thousand more Talibs from the NWPP, most from the towns of Akora, Mardan, Charsadda, Bannu, Peshavar, where most of the medreses were closed were sent to Spinbuldak. The escort was liberated by the Talibs, probably with the help of frontier troops. Two weeks later the escort reached Ashgabad. True to their program of struggling against the production of narcotics, (which they always paid a lot of attention, believing it to be a good way to arouse sympathy from foreign countries and international organisations), the Talibs burned a ton of hashish found in Spinbuldak.
On November 5, after receiving reinforcements and weapons, the Taliban seized Kandahar. After establishing their first governmental organisation, �the Council�, the Holy warriors continued their offensive to the west. On November 29, the Taliban captured the towns of Girishk and Lashkargah. In Kandahar, which became the capital of the widening Talib State, the Shariah norms were applied to for the first time. Two thieves were punished and the local leaders were executed for their supposed crimes.
After gaining control of the Gilmend province, one of the centres of opium production, the Talibs advanced to the North-east, recruiting the local population with promises peace and just Islamic governing. The Taliban captured Kalat, Mukur, and parts of the Zabol and Gazni provinces. The group�s military acts were skillfully co-ordinated. In the beginning of November, another troop of the Talibs simultaneously launched another offensive in the east. After crossing Pactica by cars the troops reached Gazni, but could not enter the town. However, from January 10 to 15, 1995, the second army group arrived, and together they surrounded Gazni. The town fell on January 24. Consisting of six thousand troops, the Talibs easily seized Vardak, a significant part of Pactica and Pactia. After a battle lasting from February 10 to 14, the domain Hikmatiara Maidanshahr and his headquarters in Charasiab were captured, opening the way to Kabul.
Promising that the war would end soon, the Talibs managed to unite with the movements opposing to the government. The army of the opposition was commanded by Akhmad-shah Masud, and could assemble an army of 25 000 people, equipped with two hundred tanks and twelve planes. (According to different information, the main part of the movement�s army was volunteers, but occasionally, especially in the critical moments, there was a call to military service. Men older than 18 were expected to be soldiers. Different ethnical groups were represented in the army, but the majority of the forces consisted of Pushtons, whom the leaders preferred and trusted more.) Hikmatiar retreated to Sarobi and Lagman. From February 25 to March 10 the Talibs captured Gardez and Host in the South. At the same time, the Talibs appeared in the eastern and south-western suburbs of Kabul: in Puli-Charhi, Dar ul-Aman and in the blocks of the Hazaras, and descended from Hazarajat in central Afghanistan.
However in the middle of March, the government army achieved a temporary success. On March 11, government troops seized the south-western part of the capital. By March 19, government forces they had managed to capture Charasiab and began their offensive to Maidanshahr. The Taliban attack on Kabul seemed to fail. From April 1995, when a period of precarious stabilisation was developing at the fronts, some organisations and people launched efforts to stop the military conflict. However, the efforts of the special messenger of the UN general secretary, Mahmud Mestiri to broker an agreement between the ex-President Afghani Burhanuddin Rabbani and the Talibs, to hand over the control of the country to the Transitional Council organised by representatives of all the political groups, failed. The plan of the ex-king Muhammad Zahir-shah to form a government by calling the Great Jirga (Council of Elders of the Pushtun tribes) was unsurprisingly resisted by the Tajik Rabbani. Pakistan also resisted the plan, believing the new initiatives on creating Pushtunistan to require the tearing away some part of Pakistan. In addition there was Rabbani�s plan, which satisfied the majority of Mojahedeen groups, but which was buried by the counter-demands of the Talibs.
Following the Great Jirga of July 1994, the ruler of the western Harat province, Ismail-khan, decided to attempt to spread his power southward. In August 1995, the ruler tried to break the Talib encirclement and reach the Pakistan border. The risky operation failed. Having seriously settled down in Kadahar, to appeal to the solidarity of the Pushtun population against the Persian-speaking Harats, the Talibs were able to cut off Ismail-khan�s army in Girishk from its rear bases. The Taliban attack led to the seizure of Dilaram and the Shindand airport. The Taliban followed the retreating enemy all the way to Harat. On the night of September 4 to 5 the town was urgently evacuated. Tens of trucks took the government and about two thousand people to the Iranian Meshed. The town was quickly captured by the Talibs that morning. Meeting no resistance, the Taliban reached the borders of Iran and Turkmenistan. As many other victories of the Talibs, the capture of Harat was unexpected by the majority of people. Ismail-khan an ally of Rabbani�s seemed to have stable control over the entire north-western part of Afghanistan.
The Talibs started to introduce their order. The first result of their arrival was the restoration of the trade route from Turkmenistan to Pakistan, accompanied by arrival of Pakistani traders and the rebirth of the transit trade. However, in all other respects, life in the town came to a standstill. Schools were closed due to the absence of fuel, the prohibition of education for girls, and the outlaw of women�s labour. There was no food. Hospitals did not have required medicine. During the cold winter there was no electricity and the water-supply pipeline was damaged. The park was transformed into a garrison and all of the hotels were crowded with Talibs. The Taliban were determined to introduce their conception of Islam at any price. Slowly but steadily the new laws were accepted by the legal, educational and healthcare organisations. Women suffered particularly badly. Breaking of a law could cost a woman her life. In March 1996, the schools were reopened, though girls could only attend religious classes in the canonical schools before until the age of 9 - then their studies abruptly ended. Women were deprived of the right to work, except in the medical institutions, as only women may be entitled to treat women. The new restrictions made the work of all medical personnel difficult, but it was especially difficult for the foreigner men, who could not treat their female patients.
The whole version of the article you will find in
�The Energy of Kazakhstan� # 4.
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