Rashid DYUSEMBAEV,
ALMATY, July 14
(THE GLOBE)
Recently the mass media paid special attention to the events in Uzbekistan, which was mainly caused by the bloody terrorist acts in Tashkent in February 1999. We should mention that the article given below illuminates the attitude of one party to the situation in this Central Asian republic. This is the attitude of the chairman of the Uzbekistan People�s Movement �Birlik�, who gave an exclusive interview to THE GLOBE.
Question: speaking at Carnegie�s Fund in the last year, you said that Karimov�s propensity to Washington is a myth, as in fact he is bending to Moscow. But the recent events refute your statement, as the relations between Moscow and Uzbekistan have obviously worsened, haven�t they?
Answer: Everything depends on how we approach this question. The necessity to be close to Washington is what the Uzbek opposition, first of all the People�s movement �Birlik� claimed in that time. That is why, I could say that by my speech in Washington I provoke Karimov to depart from and to become close to the West. It is well known that Karimov often takes even serious decisions impulsively, sometimes only to demonstrate that he is different from what he is talked by others. I will give only an example. In the end of 1998 the US ambassador to Uzbekistan Mr. Praysel in his speech at the Centre of Strategic Researches in Washington stated that Karimov could dismiss any of his ministers and hokim, except the only man (his first deputy on the government Ismail Dzhurabekov). In some weeks Dzhurabekov was pensioned off. In an emotional anger Karimov cut his right arm. He is especially sensitive to words of the opposition leaders. That is why, he could temporarily �sacrifice� Russia, to get the better of the �damned� opposition.
On the other hand, there are some other reasons, which made Karimov to reconsider his relations with Moscow. In 1992 Karimov�s initiative to create collective security forces was so important for Russia, that the administration of Yeltsin which before almost openly supported the Uzbek opposition, betrayed the latter and Karimov suddenly became the best friend of Russia but not for a long time. After that the Uzbekistan authorities at once started terror against us and we were forced out from the official political stage. Yes, that time he tactically won, but it was a strategic mistake. We predicted that this mistake would cause negative sequences in Central Asia for a long period. It happened. Russia having strengthened with the help of Karimov in Tajikistan, along with the latter began to pressure Uzbekistan. See the irony of the fate: Rakhmonov, who came to force thanks to Karimov, using forces created according to Karimov�s initiative, now dares to say with Karimov as a man equal to him, sometimes even from the position of force. The Uzbekistan President has the only way: to make Tajikistan and Russia to respect him, Karimov has to look for a way to become close to the West, to the United States.
We should understand that this is a long process. Believe me, I know for sure that the USA do not especially trust to Karimov and do not believe in the myth of stability of his regime and his sincere desire to be a close friend of the West. If this desire were sincere, of course, it would influence the democratisation processes in Uzbekistan. We do not have to search for an example, it is Azerbaijan.
In short, it is hardly possible that something can significantly change in the nearest future. I am talking about significant changes namely. Concluding different contracts with Uzbekistan, American men just check how steady and serious Karimov is. We know for sure that they constantly place the condition to democratise the society, to speed up the economic reforms. Recently Uzbekistan concluded a number of contracts with our country, in particular in the military field. Several days before in the US State Department I met the special advisor of the State Secretary on CIS issues Mr. Rossle Wilson. He confirmed the desire of his country to make Uzbekistan, a member of OSCE, conduct the democratic reforms. Mr. Wilson announced that at the meeting with Karimov during NATO jubilee, Madelyn Olbright distinctly expressed their requirements. I frankly say, that we do not just sit and wait for results of the pressure on Karimov. The establishment of the democratic society in Uzbekistan is the Uzbeks� business, it is our business. But we have the right to count on the international community�s assistance, as people faced a natural calamities count on help.
Question: You watched Islam Karimov smiling along with Bill Clinton during the NATO jubilee summit. According to the program �Partnership for the sake of peace�, the connections of NATO are actively developing, there are rumours that US State Department has a distinct program on establishment of strategic relations with Tashkent to weaken Russian influence in Central Asia. What do you think about it?
Answer: I repeat once more, the opposition hotly supports getting closer to USA, as it complies with our democratic ideals. I understand that the United States have their own state interests. Sometimes these interests are more significant than democracy in Uzbekistan. But as the same time I am sure that USA will continuously fight for democracy all over the world, not only in Uzbekistan, as the democratic order namely and its strengthening comply with the US national current interests. Now it is too early to talk about any Uzbekistan�s obvious approaching to this country.
As far as smiling Karimov near Clinton is concerned, maybe that was the main achievement of the Uzbek President, who correctly and bravely predicted that in such country as USA nobody would remind him about prior known protocol of distribution of sits for photos. It is not clear, for whom this trick was prepared? In the United States nobody looks at Presidents� photos. While in Uzbekistan the President is announced someone between god and the prophet, and it is hardly possible to surprise the Uzbeks with a photo with some Clinton. Maybe, he counted on the effect in the neighbouring countries: See. Before Clinton did not treated me as an equal one, now I am standing near him, not you.
As far as I know, unfortunately, people who make climate in the US foreign policy do not seriously deal with Uzbekistan. That is they gave separate persons complete control over this direction of the US foreign policy. At least, till recent time this direction was determined by well-known Zbignev Bzezhinsky who believed that Uzbekistan would become a kernel of forces opposite to the Moscow expansion. That was profitable for Europe, and especially for Poland. Serious US politicians think, once Central Asian dictators have somehow efficient armies, they will fight against each other. This will comply with the interests of our northern neighbour.
I think, it is a correct prediction. The Central Asian region may be a strong counterbalance and at the same time a worthy partner for everyone, only when these countries unite some Commonwealth on democratic basis, which is possible only if democracy wins in all these countries.
(To be continued )
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