Last week the first round of negotiations between the TALIBAN movement and opposition forces were completed in Ashgabat. Many observers said that Turkmenistan is interested in the earliest possible cessation of fighting in Afghanistan.in order to enable the further construction of a pipeline through the territory of the country. This is the reason why the negotiations took place in the capital of the Asian republic.
Direct negotiations between Talibs and opposition forces were held for the first time. In addition, the opposition groups have been presented personally by Akhmad Shakh Massud. This fact, as well as the fact that according to some information agencies, both parties came to the agreement on the exchange of prisoners of war and terms of cease-fire made a number of experts speak of a new stage of the Afghanistan conflict settlement.
However other analysts are skeptical about the most recent events. This skepticism is mainly due to the sad experience of the latest negotiations, in which the parties violated agreements almost immediately after they had been reached.
This is a typical practice for Taliban movement. Usually they start active peace keeping actions before spring snow begins melting. But once the basic obstacle to military actions disappears, the Taliban unexpectedly attack the coalition forces� positions. In this connection, the negotiations may be considered the camouflage for preparations of large-scale military actions.
As the Tabibs already control over 90% of the country, the Talibs� interest in reaching a peaceful settlement to the conflict is very doubtful. Last year when they controlled smaller territories the parties failed to reach any agreement.
On the other hand, it is also possible that their willingness to negotiate is a sign of weakness If this is the case, an armistice may in fact, be possible. Despite all prognosis about forthcoming win of Taliban movement after their seizure of Mazari �Sharif and other principal cities of the Northern alliance, the further advances have stopped. Moreover the troops of Akhmad Shakh Massud managed to gain a number of considerable victories with the help of Teheran on the Afghanistan-Iran boundary.
The other fact, which puts negotiations� success in doubt, is that such countries as Russia, Iran, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan which have an influence on the Afghanistan situation did not participate in the talks. It is difficult to believe that the parties will be able to reach any agreement without taking into consideration the interests of Moscow and Teheran, which conflict with Washington and Islamabad�s positions.
However, even ignoring any external influence, reaching a stable peace in Afghanistan is an uphill task. From the history of this country, one may see that uncoordinated and multiple tribes, particularly in the northern regions were always difficult to control and suppress.
The second reason for pessimism is that the Taliban movement is mainly represented by pushtuns �Islamic dogmas fanatics, who have provoked the profound dissatisfaction of other people of the country. Under these conditions, the movement chose the strategy exterminating other smaller, national smaller groups. This in turn, led to the activation of anti-Talib partisan activities. In this contest, it is hardly possible for the movement to unify the country - at least in the short term. This means that stabilization in the country seems to be the remote future.
The opposing parties will meet soon to continue negotiations.
Translation � INSEL A.B.
AMMAN
(AFP)
Jordan said yesterday that Palestinian proposals for a �confederation� with Jordan were premature and should not be discussed until after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
Jordan�s Foreign Minister, Abdulilah Al Khatib, said that Jordan�s official position on a confederation with the Palestinians has not changed since the idea emerged in the early 1980s.
�We support the Palestinians� legitimate rights, including their right to establish an independent state on their national soil,� Khatib said. �When that happens, all options will be open to discuss different forms of relationships� between Jordan and the new state, he said.
The Palestinian President, Yasser Arafat, told a mass rally of his supporters on Friday that he was prepared to agree to a political confederation of the Palestinian territories with Jordan if the Jordanians wanted it.
But since the mid-1980s, Jordan has insisted that the Palestinians complete negotiations with Israel on the final status of their territories before defining a new relationship with Jordan. �The matter should be subject to a referendum of both populations once a Palestinian state has been created,� the late King Hussein said.
Jordan controlled the West Bank from 1950 until 1967 when the territory was conquered by Israel. It was only in 1988 that the late King Hussein severed administrative and legal ties with the West Bank and east Jerusalem in favour of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, although the Hashemite Kings of Jordan retain certain rights over the Muslim holy places in Jerusalem.
King Hussein died last Sunday after a long battle with cancer and was succeeded by his eldest son, King Abdullah II. Arafat gave the 37-year-old new king a strong vote of confidence on Monday.
Around half the 4.6 million population of Jordan is of Palestinian origin and many residents of the West Bank and east Jerusalem also still hold Jordanian passports.