by Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova, President of ASaP
ALMATY, Dec 14
November 25 � December 13, 1999
Almaty � Taraz � Kokshetau - Shymkent
2217 persons questioned
President
Rating of N. Nazarbaev (% in the column)
| November 25 to 29 | December 1 to 6 | December 7 to 13 | |
| Almaty � Taraz | Almaty � Kokshetau | Almaty � Shymkent | |
| Trust | 14.9 | 16.8 | 17.4 |
| Do not trust | 53.0 | 46.8 | 56.7 |
| It�s difficult to answer | 32.1 | 36.4 | 25.9 |
The dynamics of the President�s average rating is insignificantly growing. This could have been a positive factor, if there had been no high indices of distrust and their further reduction.
Alternative to President N. Nazarbaev (% in the column)
| November 25 to 29 | December 1 to 6 | December 7 to 13 | |
| Almaty � Taraz | Almaty � Kokshetau | Almaty � Shymkent | |
| There is an alternative | 41.4 | 43.5 | 47.5 |
| No alternative | 23.9 | 17.4 | 20.7 |
| It�s difficult to answer | 34.7 | 39.1 | 31.8 |
If in the beginning most respondents considered N. Nazarbaev the only leader in the country, now he has lost this advantage.
Five candidates to the presidential post with the highest rating (% in the column)
| November 25 to 29 | December 1 to 6 | December 7 to 13 | |
| Almaty � Taraz | Almaty � Kokshetau | Almaty � Shymkent | |
| G. Kasymov | 12.4 | 14.1 | 9.2 |
| A. Kazhegeldin | 7.6 | 9.6 | 3.6 |
| S. Kuttykadam | 2.2 | 1.0 | 4.6 |
| G. Aldamzharov | 3.3 | 2.6 | 4.6 |
| O. Suleimenov | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
The most probable alternative to N. Nazarbaev is G. Kasymov. He succeeded in the election campaigns in both Presidential and Parliamentary elections. His parliamentarian�s seat, if he uses it properly, may shift him to the presidential seat.
The present President failed to combine his care for the power with care for common people, though he had promised that. He surrounded himself with people among whom there is no man really faithful to him, who could say about bankruptcy of the President�s reforms.
Though if a man dares to say the truth, for him it is a direct way to the opposition.
Prime Minister
K. Tokaev�s appointment the Prime Minister (% in the column)
| November 25 to 29 | December 1 to 6 | December 7 to 13 | |
| Almaty � Taraz | Almaty � Kokshetau | Almaty � Shymkent | |
| For the appointment 21.0 | 23.4 | 21.8 | |
| Against the appointment | 29.1 | 27.1 | 32.1 |
| It�s difficult to answer | 49.9 | 49.5 | 46.1 |
Always calm and intelligent the former Foreign Minister aroused very disputable reaction to his new post of the Prime Minister. The start of his activity on the new post was very unsuccessful. After the idle statement on liberalization of the shadow capital, for which nothing done, there was an unforgivable for the experienced diplomat decision to introduce total monitor for the informational field without prior expertise of its economic and social efficiency.
Negative symptoms are growing: force structures are being reactivated, provocations are being initiated (soon the Ust-Kamenogorsk event will become a banal example), the information, mainly incoming, is blocked. What is the new PM preparing for us?
Rating of K. Tokaev (% in the line)
| November 25 to 29 | December 1 to 6 | December 7 to 13 | |
| Almaty � Taraz | Almaty � Kokshetau | Almaty � Shymkent | |
| He is a man for the job | 53.8 | 59.3 | 46.1 |
| Does not satisfy as the PM | 46.2 | 40.7 | 53.9 |
During first two weeks respondents from Taraz and Kokshetau demonstrated increasing sympathy to K. Tokaev. Obviously, these towns favor the new PM. Almaty outwardly restrained in its sympathy. In the third week Shymkent undermined K. Tokaev�s rating.
Five candidates to the PM�s post with the highest rating (% in the column)
| November 25 to 29 | December 1 to 6 | December 7 to 13 |
| Almaty � Taraz | Almaty � Kokshetau | Almaty � Shymkent |
| 1. A. Kazhegeldin 9.8 | 1. A. Kazhegeldin 11.0 | 1. A. Kazhegeldin 10.0 |
| 2. G. Kasymov 9.5 | 2. G. Kasymov 9.1 | 2-3. G. Kasymov 9.2 |
| 2-3. S. Kuttykadam 9.2 | ||
| 3. S. Kuttykadam 7.1 | 3. S. Kuttykadam 5.9 | |
| 4. O. Suleimenov 3.5 | 4. B. Tursumbaev 2.5 | 4. B. Tursumbaev 4.1 |
| 5. A. Pavlov 3.3 | 5. A. Pavlov 2.2 | 5. S. Tereschenko 3.5 |
Three first places are the same during the total polling period. A. Kazhegeldin is the first candidature to the Prime Minister.
The public opinion proposes an interesting picture: G. Kasymov � to the post of the President; A. Kazhegeldin � to the Prime Minister. Taking into consideration �letters from abroad� by A. Kazhegeldin, that regularly published by the newspaper �21st century�, the former PM has made significant progress in his political evolution. While our authorities evidently drop behind him, as they are of more reaction.
In this week the former PM S. Tereschenko unexpectedly was one of the first five candidates. Respondents from Shymkent provided him with the sufficient rating.
State functionaries
Five candidates with the weekly average rating (%)
| November 25 to 29 | December 1 to 6 | December 7 to 13 |
| 1. G. Marchenko (14.7) | 1. G. Marchenko (13.4) | 1. G. Marchenko (13.3) |
| 2. V. Shkolnik (9.4) | 2. A. Musaev (8.7) | 2. V. Shkolnik (8.7) |
| 3. N. Radostovets (8.6) | 3. N. Radostovets (8.4) | 3. A. Musaev (8.0) |
| 4. A. Musaev (8.4) | 4. V. Shkolnik (8.0) | 4-5. K. Suleimenov (7.8) |
| 5. K. Suleimenov (8.3) | 5. S. Tokpakbaev (7.8) | 4-5. Yu. Hitrin (7.8) |
Though it is paradoxically, but respondents favor heads of force structures having bad �fame� in the country. In fact, they are always among first five leaders. In this week polled Almaty people gave card blanche to Yuryi Hitrin.
Five outsiders by the weekly average rating of antipathy (%)
| November 25 to 29 | December 1 to 6 | December 7 to 13 |
| 1. S. Burkitbaev (10.7) | 1. S. Burkitbaev (10.7) | 1. S. Burkitbaev (10.2) |
| 2. K. Kusherbaev (9.0) | 2. K. Kusherbaev (9.4) | 2. M. Yesenbaev (8.4) |
| 3. S. Mynbaev (8.8) | 3. S. Mynbaev (8.9) | 3. K. Kusherbaev (8.0) |
| 4. M. Yesenbaev (8.6) | 4. M. Yesenbaev (7.8) | 4. S. Mynbaev (7.8) |
| 5. Zh. Kulekeev (7.6) | 5. Zh. Kulekeev (7.7) | 5. Zh. Kulekeev (7.6) |
The constant composition of outsiders has become evident. The above-mentioned functionaries are to send in their resignation, according to the majority of the polled people.
Instead to seek money to settle problems of his ministry, the Minister of Transport and Communication S. Burkitbaev deals with the expensive project for �swindling� the country. The Minister of Education and Science K. Kusherbaev has damaged his department, though he may even worsen the situation, as not all schools closed and not all teachers became vendors. The young Minister of Agriculture S. Mynbaev is blamed for he did not dare to disobey the President (though he is not guilty). Now he has to fulfill other people�s job. It is still unknown how the privatized property will be redistributed in the Karagandy oblast, but it is known that now the oblast Akim supervises the national budget. If the Minister of Economy is in the same hurry as he was while preparing results of the general census of the population, the economic situation will not improve soon.
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