The sharp reaction of the West towards elections held in Kazakstan may appear Hokey.
The following are major points
of �accusations�:
(i) elections were held ahead of schedule and as a result candidates did
not have enough time to organize a
campaign;
(ii) amendments to the Elections Law were made just before the
announcement on commencing the elections
campaign was made;
(iii) a former Premier Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin was not allowed to
participate in the campaign on the basis of
insignificant formal violations within the Elections Law;
(iv) inadequate access of candidates to mass media in the course of the
pre-election drive.
It should be noted that such violations feature not only Kazakstan. Thus, in Point (i)
they rebuked the President of
Kyrgyzstan, Askar Akayev, when in 1995 he declared ahead-of-schedule-and-very-fast
elections. But it should be kept in
mind that Akayev decided to hold elections under the circumstances when all other Central
Asian leaders had
demonstrated a parade of referendums for prolongation of their offices.
The situation analogous to Point (iii) occurred last year in Azerbaijan when five (!)
opposition leaders sat out presidential
elections.
The presidential publicity in Russia at the elections of 1996 �Vote or you will
loose!� has become a proverb and a byword,
when Boris Yeltsin won owing to a head start in mass media.
Thus, all points, that president Nazarbayev �has gathered in his basket� are not too
original. But, here is what my
childhood friend used to say in my boyhood days: �My mother is scolding me again for I
have plumped in troubles again.
I am saying to her that there were so-and-so. And she answers: Stupid! Last time there
were different, and now there are
new, and only you are always plumping in troubles�.
Thus, just a collection of what has happened made the West to accuse viva voce the
president Nazarbayev in holding
�wrong� elections. But the main reason is the removal of Akezhan Kazhegelding from the
pre-election campaign. And in
this connection one point of view towards the Russian experience, as it seems to me, is of
interest for Kazakstan even if
this is Kazakstan-2006.
Mikhail Gorbachev
and Boris Yeltsin: 1991
Let�s ask ourselves a question: why Boris Yeltsin committed himself to the development
of democratic process in
Russia? WE designedly put the question like this: what made Boris Yeltsin to do so? We
will designedly take up the
model position, i.e. will protrude one side of the process, probably, to the derogation of
others, but this, as it seems to
me, will be interesting and of avail. Within the proposed model the answer will be simple:
love to the power made Yeltsin
to commit himself to the situation of the economic development. Let us clarify this.
Like Nursultan Nazarbayev, the current Russian leader was a member of the same Political
Bureau and the same party.
Both of them made a similar in many ways
Career, and both of them, probably, had similar major principles. But ways of development
followed by their countries
and in which they have been directly participated part for the time being. And the reason
is the difference of histories of
making of Yeltsin and Nazarbayev as leaders of their new independent states.
Russia is a country with a real multiparty system. Along with the name of Boris Yeltsin
names of many other politicians
can be easily recollected: Yuriy Luzhkov, Aleksandr Lebed, Grigoriy Yavlinskiy, Victor
Chernomyrdin, Gennadiy
Zyuganov and many others. In creation of such a system of names the role of Boris Yeltsin
appears as absolute.
And the fact that the Russian president defended the opposition of the USSR president,
Mikhail Gorbachev, gave Yeltsin
an invaluable experience: in struggle with an only candidate a current power may be easily
defeated. This statement, as
we believe, can be applied to all countries under circumstances of a difficult development
without developed institutes of
a civil society. And that has become an inheritance of Boris Yeltsin in early 1990�s. He
easily defeated the last leader of
the ruling Communist Party and the last leader of the USSR. A favorite of the West, Gorbi,
who has dome so much
positive for the country�s development, absolutely gave up in confrontation within the
country. And this defeat has
become a result of not only clumsiness of the entire power structure of the giant country
and of a great number of
subjective reasons, BUT! In the attack of enemy singly the current power can easily be
defeated, if there is only one
candidate.
Boris Yeltsin and
Gennadiy Zyuganov
Within the proposed model and for the explanation of the Russian phenomenon of the
democracy development, the
appearance of names of many politicians looks natural. If we repeat once again a household
expression form the
Russian mass media �The power is the greatest love of Boris Yeltsin� then we need to
remember the last elections of
1996. Just the support of the political elite around Yeltsin�s figure helped him to
prevail over �practically� an only
opponent - Gennadiy Zyuganov.
Formally it was noticed in the figure of Aleksandr Lebed, votes for whom in the second
ballot brought him victory. But the
phenomenon of Lebed is a rather complex combination, which from the system point of view
can be expressed as
follows: just a difference in names of politicians crystallized into the name of the
resigned general.
None of the persons repressed and taken off power structures have any chance to win both
in 1996 and at present.
Moreover, if Boris Yeltsin have been in a good physical condition, representative of
political Russian elite united with the
purpose of preventing any antagonistic forces from penetrating in Kremlin, could have
brought him to victory again.
Thus, the creation of the system of the multi-polar political world on the Map of Russia
can be looked upon as a method
of retention of power for those who are currently in office. And, on the contrary, in an
undeveloped political system,
especially in the one created on purpose, some of repressed officials can take an
advantage of the situation.
Nursultan Nazarbayev
and Akezhan Kazhegelding: 1998
Removal of Kazhegelding from the participation in elections seems to tag Nursultan
Nazarbayev for a long time. Just a
restraint of the general political development in the country caused such sharp flares of
people�s popularity of the former
Premier Minister. In fact, any action conducted by him (let it be an interview to the
Karavan newspaper, KTK TV channel,
Komsomolskaya pravda, OPT TV channel, or the edition of the DAT newspaper) lead to rising
of his rating. Against a
somehow peaceful background these actions were taken by many people as extraordinary
actions of an extraordinary
politician. But he did acted as an extraordinary politician, because he was the only one
on the Kazakstan Olympus.
Money and the image of an affronted can easily give rise to a politician in the country
lacking in somehow developed
political institutes and formed civil society. According to the Globe, in 1998 summer
Akezhan Kazhegelding was ahead
of Nursultan Nazarbayev in the category of �Sympathetic politician�. This has become a
result of Kazhegeldin�s
campaign in mass media. A counterbalance in the multi-polar politics is terror, intrigues
and other sophisticated methods.
Nursultan Nazarbayev
and ???: 200X year.
It seems that a discontent person having money, connections in Russia, Kazakstan and other
countries and some
popularity and image of a policymaker can always be found. To hope only for the goods on
such persons � and the
system itself will reproduce them - what shall we have? A real alternative for the current
president is to retain the power
by normal election methods � this is a development of a multi-polar, multi-personal
system in Kazakstan. Seven years is
a good term for a try. And it is obvious that first years of those seven will not be easy.
It is not so clear whether the rest
of the years will be successful and the country will prosper.
Will be the experience of Boris Yeltsin of use in Kazakstan? Of course, the model is not
the whole life. But it seemed to
interesting to share my thoughts.
To be continued.
The supporters of Kazakhstan Communist leader Serikbolsin Abdildin protested before the
Central Election Commission
of the Republic of Kazakhstan and claimed that Abdildin lost the presidential race because
of numerous violations of the
election law and Constitution.
They asserted:
1. The officials of Election Commissions hampered Communist observers
attempts to control the poll,
2. Lists of voters contained names of defunct people whereas lot of
citizens were not included into the lists,
3. Akims� officials often interfered with the work of Election
Commissions,
4. Almost everywhere the number of ballots exceeded the number of
voters,
5. In Iliysky district (Almaty region), the poll cabins were provided
only with pencils, according to the information of
the citizens Pervomayka and Zhana-Daur settlements.
In Almaty, election site # 42 the initial results of Abdildin was announced as 114 voters,
but after a telephone call from
Akim�s office the figure 24 emerged. The similar situation was revealed at the site #
14, Medeusky district, where
Adbildin�s initial figure 180 was reduced to 78.
Gulnur ORAZYMBETOVA, Jan14 (THE Globe)
�15% of votes for Serikbolsyn Abdildin � is a serious information to think over, when
social and economic reforms are
being deepened�, - announced ex-prime minister, head of the pre-electoral headquarters
in support of Nazarbayev,
Sergey Tereschenko.
�From the very beginning of the elections the OSCP posed. This international
organisation did not say anything new. The
OSCP label all elections that had been held in the CIS with the same stamp�, - and added
that it has the right to express
its opinion.
�When its mission at the elections is over the public headquarters will be reorganised
into Otan Party (Fatherland). We
will address directly to Nazarbayev with the proposal to head it�, Tereschenko said.
According to him he is not going to return to the government because he is satisfied with
his reputation as the owner of
an agricultural trade firm.
Gulbanu ABENOVA
Almaty, Jan 14 (THE GLOBE)
�Telecommunications development always contributes to the general economic development
of the country�, Mukhtar
Abdrakhmanov, deputy director of KAZINTEL company said.
He thinks, the retarded telecommunication structure hampers the development of economy and
business activities in all
spheres of human activity, while outdated technologies prevent from attraction new
technologies and investments.
A group of KAZINTEL companies organised a new business centre in Almaty. The directors of
the group think, this event
will help to solve the problem of rendering complex services.
The company said its purpose was to implement the method called �one stop shopping�.
The company has opened such
shop, located at the crossroads Abylay Khan and Dzhambu Streets where the group renders
international, long distance
and facsimile communication services.
In the Internet-hall a customer may not only use Internet services, but also get
familiarised with the news of
telecommunication world, acquire telephone terminals of the last generations and prepaid
cards for KAZINTEL services.
The company considers this method the most complex to meet customers demands and to render
maximum services for
minimal prices.
Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova
(The president of the Association Sociologists and Political Scientists)
ALMATY, Jan 14 (Specially for the GLOBE)
Brief information:
The association has been carrying out a regular monitoring of the public opinion in the
southern capital since January
1998.
The extract represents the structure of the Almaty population regarding age, sex and
nationality (at the age of over 18
years old)
The totality over the year is 9532 persons.
They questioned 570 respondents in the first decade of the year and 668 respondents in the
second decade.
Comparative evaluation of the political situation in Kazakstan in the annual dynamics.
Variants of answers 1998
| January | March | June | September | October | November | December, | ||
| the 1 | the se2 | |||||||
| decade | decade | |||||||
| The first stage of Democracy | 6,8 | 5,1 | 2,9 | 2,1 | 3,8 | 7,6 | 5,8 | 3,4 |
| Transition period from non -democracy to democracy |
||||||||
| 8,1 | 7,6 | 8,4 | 4,6 | 6,7 | 5,7 | 6,8 | 3,4 | |
| Authoritarism | 10,4 | 5,3 | 23 | 15,8 | 13,5 | 23,5 | 15,3 | 14,9 |
| Administrative and Command | ||||||||
| regulation | 18,2 | 19,7 | 15,5 | 14,2 | 15,4 | 20 | 13,7 | 13,2 |
| Totalitarianism | 3,5 | 3,4 | 5,2 | 4,6 | 5,8 | 6,3 | 2,6 | 4,6 |
| Regime of the personal power of the president |
24,7 | |||||||
| Other | 3,8 | 2,0 | 1,6 | 3,3 | 2,9 | 2,2 | 1,1 | |
| Difficult to answer | 49,1 | 57,0 | 43,4 | 55,4 | 51,9 | 34,6 | 52,6 | 35,6 |
In the second decade of December the total weight of negative evaluation of the political
situation in Kazakstan reached
its highest indicator: over half of the respondents (57,4 %) see an authoritarism of
several levels of toughness in the
existing regime. Every fourth respondent thinks it is a regime of a personal power of the
president.
Officially all legal norms and procedures declare publicity and freedom of speech. And
what is a real situation?
What do you think is there a freedom of speech and publicity in Kazakstan (%)
| Yes | 13, 2 |
| No | 55, 1 |
| Difficult to answer | 31, 7 |
In the end of 1998 only every eighth citizen of Almaty city gave a positive answer on this
question.
Which hope do you connect with the win of Nursultan Nazarbayev in the election? (%)
1.He will manage to smooth consequences of the international and Russian crisis on
Kazakstan�s economy 6,6
2. The scale of corruption and despotism of the bureaucracy at the national and local
levels. 3,0
3. Guarantees of the constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens
2,0
4. The country will see full-scale democratisation 0,5
5. Nothing will change 40, 9
6. The situation will aggravate there will be a restoration of command methods of
regulation. 9,6
7. The President will set a regime of his personal power, which however will not eliminate
criminal corruption
and despotism of bureaucrats 20,7
8. Difficult to answer 16, 7
Most part of citizens does not have any illusions regarding the improving situation in the
country under Nursultan
Nazarbayev
Did your family see any positive changes during the reforms, carrying out under the
president? (%)
December 1998
| The first decade | The second decade | |
| Yes | 5,8 | 4,8 |
| No | 54,7 | 76,0 |
| Difficult to answer | 38,4 | 19,2 |
The mainstream of respondents associates reforms with just a play on words against the
background of intensification of
crisis in the society.
How can you evaluate the situation in society?
December 1998
| The first decade | The second decade | |
| Stable | 5,3 | 3,6 |
| Crisis | 49,5 | 61,7 |
| Catastrophic | 14,7 | 21,0 |
| Difficult to answer | 29,5 | 13,8 |
Crisis is becoming the leitmotif of social feeling of Kazakstan�s citizens
Do you believe in the successive results of reforms under Nazarbayev? (%)
December 1998
| The first decade | The second decade | |
| Yes | 8,9 | 11,4 |
| No | 45,3 | 55,1 |
| Difficult to answer | 44,7 | 33,5 |
Loosing the support of people Kazakstan�s power is keeping its position at the expense
of its control possibilities.
In November 2197 respondents answered the question on their credibility to functioning
structures, while in December
the number made 2468.
Power is not a property of ruling class but relations of exchange of those making policy
and those yielding to it. Power
legitimacy is possible only with the consent of society, which recognises its authority,
prestige and expedience of those
aims, which are realised in the interests of the whole population.
Despite dramatically aggravating lack of credibility Kazakstan�s power is continuing to
ignore or feign ignoring the
general recession.
Distribution of the total number of answers in columns of the table.
| Confide | Do not confide | Evaluation of activities | |||
| Positive | Negative | Indifferent | Difficult to answer | ||
| 344 | 2124 | 672 | 840 | 1076 | 1960 |
668 respondents could choose more than one alternative.
Conclusions:
Operations with political attributes � elections, constitution, referendums, parliaments
and so on are some kind of magic
manipulations.
Political magic is grounded on the fact that though the situation in the election campaign
was released from the ballast of
democracy in December 1998 the belief in democracy under Nursultan Nazarbayev was still
possible.
It is difficult to agree that the fate of the whole country depends on the will and
organisation skills of the only person.
What is the viability of the presidential institution, if it is unable to provide
succession? Which will be the future of the
republic if its stability is determined by the period of life of one person?
Unfortunately, the author of this material thinks that there is no real alternative to
Nazarbayev. We can�t but admit that
this sound as a verdict.
FROM THE EDITOR A reader of our newspaper who used to be a classmate of an hierarch of the
Orthodox Church in
Damask suggested us publishing a letter of the latter addressed to Kazakstan�s President
in connection with his victory in
the presidential elections. Probably the readership will be interested in the point of
view of our former compatriot and his
appraisal of the role of Nursultan Nazarbayev in democracy process in Kazakstan, judging
from a distance.
His Excellency
President of the Republic of Kazakstan Nursultan Nazarbayev
Holding a high respect to Your Excellency the President,
Radio broadcast in the Near East the news of your doubtful victory in the presidential
elections in Kazakstan, which is
still my native and dear country. I would like to make use of this unique opportunity to
ask Your Excellency to accept my
sincerest and warm congratulations concerning this significant event, significant first of
all for those who treasures and
cares about Kazakstan and its success and prosperity. I am deeply convinced that most of
Kazakstani both residents and
living beyond their Motherland associate prosperity of independent Kazakstan with your
name and the hard work you are
doing.
For many years I have been serving on the diplomatic arena of the Russian Orthodox Church
and I always feel myself a
son of Kazak land, I always remember that Kazakstan is not merely my Motherland, it is the
Motherland of the sixth
generation of my ancestors. Almaty is equally mine and theirs native city, the city of
student years, the city bore and
grew up my desire of devote myself to serving people in the priesthood world, the city
where not only my relatives live
and work, but my main moral support, my cherished moral treasure � my school friends,
with whom I never lost spiritual
contact. All the above said encourages me to keep a close and jealous watch on what is
going on in Kazakstan today.
As an ecclesiastic I am first of all happy with your wise and clear putting stresses in
such a delicate sphere as interethnic
relations. An evident and incentive result of this position of yours is comprehensive
spiritual evolution of Orthodoxy in
Kazakstan, its coexistence with other religions and confessions, and first of all with
Islam, for the welfare of the new and
sovereign Kazakstan.
Today, serving under blessing of patriarchy Alexiy in his representative in Damask in the
Near East, I never lost my
feeling of being Kazakstani and Almaty citizen. This gives me the right to be the
apologist of my Kazakstani homeland
and its President through my work here, in the Near East.
All the aforesaid encourages me again and again together with congratulations and wishing
all the best to say to you,
much-esteemed Nursultan Abishevich, the grateful words for your sacrificial serving that
you are doing for the welfare of
the multi-ethnic Kazakstan.
May you have many happy returns of the day, dear Nursultan Abishevich! May the God bless
your hard work and save
you and your close people encouraging them to be your closest helpers in our hardest
service.
From the very bottom of my heart I wish you the main virtue � patience, endurance that
brings you wisdom, spiritual rest
and blessed success in everything.
By these words born in the very bottom of my heart I would like to say, dear Nursultan
Abishevich, that there is an
Almaty citizens residing in the Near East who prays the great relics of the East for his
Motherland Kazakstan and its
nation, its President Nursultan and sends you the best regards from the ancient Damask.
The devoted and sincere prayer of Your Excellency archimandrite Iosif (Pustoutov),
representative of the patriarchy of
Moscow and entire Russia under the patriarchy of the Great Antioch and entire east and
Near East.