Nocolai DOMBROVSKY
ALMATY, Sept 13
(THE GLOBE)
According to the last information, after the recent series of blows, both Moscow and Russia are at the verge of panics. Many different versions, which often contradict each other, are proposed regarding organisers and purposes of these blows. Whatever the premises of these explosions are, whoever did this, at the present time it seems that the following result of the explosions is unavoidable.
It is known that both in Moscow and Russia many persons originated from Caucasus constantly live in both Moscow and Russia. These people sell agricultural products in local markets and deal with other business.
The terrified panic-stricken population and law-reinforcement organisations will first of all unavoidably assault this category of people and will cause a lot of, mainly unjust offences. First of all this leads to a polarisation, and will make Caucasian population abandon neutral or friendly positions shifting to hostile attitude to Russia. That means that organisers of explosions are actually make these people join them, as they have no way-out. Possibly, this is the main aim of the explosions, as these objects have no strategic importance.
Marat DANAI
ALMATY, Sept 13
(THE GLOBE)
Thus the work of the contact group �6 + 2�, which was especially established under the aegis of UNO. This is an international diplomatic structure, which is supposed to settle the Afghan conflict in a peaceful way. The negotiations in Tashkent did not stop the war in Afghanistan. Talibs conducted a new attack, trying to manage a war victory, which, in their opinion, was to guarantee �de-facto� the international recognition of Emirate Islami Afghanistan.
From the theoretical point of view, �6 + 2� is a fine idea. This is a projected complex approach to the problem of all six neighbouring countries� opinions (Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and China) and interested world�s powers (USA and Russia) to be taken into consideration
However, this model has not give any practical results.
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are new young states and their desire to announce themselves, to take part in regulation of the Afghan conflict is understandable. But, let�s be frank: �Can possibilities of these countries be compared with the influence of, for example, Pakistan and Iran?� �No.�
Moreover, the last events in Osh region of Kyrgyzstan showed that we should rather talk about Islamists� influence on the situation in CIS Central Asian republics. The troop consisting of several hundreds of Mojaheds stroke the Kyrgyz state, and led to a fast strengthening of the Kazakhstan southern frontier.
China is also troubled by a possible jihad in Cinzyan, as both fighting groups from neighbouring Afghanistan are supporters of the world�s Islamic movement. That is why, people in China may ask the question: �Do they have a choice?� Shiites will hardly support Sunnites from the eastern Turkestan.
The centrifugal processes are observed in Russia, in its Muslim regions, which were once captured by the tsar�s troops. In fact, Chechnya has already managed to leave the Russian Federation. Moscow is seriously afraid of a similar situation in Dagestan.
Another circumstances negatively influenced the interrelations of Afghanistan and Russia is the former war. Leaders of the Taliban movement said me in Kandagar that some influential political forces in Russia feared atonement for the ten-years war against the Afghan people, and the mass media discussed the Talib threat.
Of course, this statement contents truth, but not all the truth, as in that period Russia was a part of USSR. In fact, not only Russian communists fight in Afghanistan. So, to blame Russia for everything is rather a current political trend, than the objective approach.
The interrelations of USA and Afghanistan also are not friendly.
Once Americans supporting Mojaheds in their fight against the Soviet army and having a great influence on the Afghan Opposition movement did not wish to establish a united Afghan government, as, probably, they followed their own purposes. If the total financial and technical aid were sent through the united government, for the ten years of the war the governmental structure of Mojaheds could be formed, probated and strengthened. I do not say that in the result all contradictions between Mojaheds were liquidated after the withdrawal of the soviet troops. But I am sure that Afghanistan could have avoided such a chaos, which was observed in 1994. The Taliban movement was mainly established as a response to that chaos.
In Kabul I saw the empty (for twenty years) US embassy. Most probably, it will be still empty.
Pakistani actions arouse many questions. On one hand, the official position of the Pakistani Government is the support of decisions of the Tashkent Declaration �6 + 2�. On the other hand, according to the recent information received from military sources of the Northern Coalition: �The majority of soldiers and officers of both the army and military intelligence of Pakistan were killed during the last battle northwards from Kabul. The war aircrafts F-16 belonging to Pakistan bombed the settlements for the whole week. The Pakistani army sent back its wounded soldiers by plane.� The list of killed servicemen along with their military titles; name and their former living place were published.
The positive result, if we may say so, of the military-political fight in Afghanistan in 1995 to 1998 was the reduced number of the opposite sides. Today only the Northern Coalition, headed by Jamiat-I-Islami and its military commander Akhmad Shah Masud, and the Taliban Movement, which was joined by Hekmatyar, Mojahedi, Mohammadi and Hales, fight. In this regard, the chances to regulate the Afghan conflict increased in comparison with 1994, the period of the great chaos. It is easier for the two parties to come to agreement, if they wish.
However, UNO still does not have any real methods to influence the fighting parties. This is mainly caused by the external influence on the Afghan groups. Now they are not influenced by separate states, but by unofficial inter-government unions.
The axis Iran-Russia-France-India is taken shape as a counterbalance to Saudi Arabia-Pakistan-UAE and, possibly, to USA, as the latter mentioned countries are strategic partners of America in the international arena. Thus, possibly, the US policy in Afghanistan is again a double one; and this policy complies with definite aims.
Well, the international factor in the Afghan war is getting more significant. This circumstance makes regulation difficult.
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