Gulbanu ABENOVA
Almaty, December 12
(THE GLOBE)
�Approximate data shows that Kazakstani state media are oriented to support of President
Nazarbayev� stated an international expert, representative of the European Institute for
the
Media (EIM) in Almaty on December 11.
Sarah Oates, expert in the media and elections in the CIS countries at Glasgow University
marked that private electronic media were not an alternative information source to the
state-
owned TV. Moreover, there was a noticeable bias toward the president in the press, both
regional and national.
From December 21 to January 1 the European Institute for Media was monitoring media
coverage of the Kazakstan presidential elections. The EIM is non-profit, non-government
policy-oriented research institution that monitors media in over 15 countries of East and
Central Europe.
According to EIM representatives, the main task of the mission was to evaluate weather
media provided impartial and balanced coverage of policy programs of the candidates to be
addressed to the electorate.
They informed that the monitoring comprised of qualitative and quantitative analysis was
conducted all over the republic and on the regional level in Astana, Almaty, Karaganda,
Petropavlovsk, Shymkent, Uralsk and Ust-Kamenogorsk.
�The monitors noted no violations of the electoral law in respect to the media. The
state
television company Khabar the candidates with the free time allocated to them under the
law�s provisions, and with additional paid time when requested�, marked Dr. Shirin
Akiner,
Director of the Central Asia Research Forum at London University. At the same time,
EIM�s
monitors noticed a bias toward the incumbent president among electronic media. �For
instance, during the electoral campaign the TV channel Kazakstan-1 provided the president
with 1.5 hours prime-time in comparison with 9 minutes given to another candidate, the
most
frequently spoken about, Mr. Gabbasov�, Mrs. Akiner stated. According to her statement,
privately-owned TV proved the same trend. The KTK channel gave the president as much as
14 minutes against 11 minutes granted to Mr. Kasymov, 6 minutes given to Mr. Gabbasov
and 10 seconds to Abdildin. The NTK channel provided the incumbent president with 2 hours
in contradiction to Mr. Gabbasov (8 minutes) and Mr. Kasymov and Mr. Abdildin (5 minutes
each). As the results show, during the 2 weeks of monitoring mission the president got
76%,
Mr. Gabbasov � 12%, Mr. Abdildin � 7% and Mr. Kasymov � 5%.
Same situation is observed in the state print media. The Kazakhstanskaya Pravda
newspaper supported the president in his electoral campaign. According to observer of this
print media, the paper would not promote opposition candidates �under no
circumstances�.
Out of the 9 monitored national papers all, except the only one, paid more attention to
Nazarbayev. The Panorama, the Karavan and the Kazakhstanskaya Pravda took a
noticeable pro-president position, while all the others covered president�s campaign
with
more details rather in contradiction to other candidates.
As for regional press, as the EIM claims, opposition candidates were ignored or mentioned
passingly. As per expert appraisals, during the week before the elections president
Nazarbayev got 82% of all the articles printed in ten regional press, Mr. Gabbasov � 9%,
candidate Abdildin � 5% and Kasymov � 4%.
The experts inferred that Mr. Gabbasov who was considered an unknown candidate and got
as many as 0.7% of votes was the main opponent to Nursultan Nazarbayev. This opinion is
based upon the observation that it was Gabbasov who was on the second place of popularity
on TV and in the papers.
The experts emphasized that the general tone of covering all the campaigns was
approximately same and there were not any violations of the electoral law observed in
media
coverage. Dr. Shirin Akiner considers that the voters were not equally aware of all the
candidates for president office as neither candidates nor media had enough time to run and
cover election campaign properly. She gave an example of her meeting with Kazakstani
citizens who knew no other candidates but Nazarbayev.
The Editor's column
Elections are Over � What is Next�
On the eve of the elections and the first days after them the Kazakstan�s citizens
are
concerned with at least three vital issues:
(i) Who will be at the head of a new government and what will be with
country�s
economy?
(ii) What will be the degree of tenge fall?
(iii) What will be the position of authorities regarding the issues of
the democratic
development of the country?
In general the first two questions are rather easy. The tenge will certainly fall and most
probably not so heavily. Somebody will be at the head of the government, and there will be
no any considerable changes as the president seems to have already made his choice and
staked on the young. At any rate the economic block will hardly be changed and this will
finally determine policy. Moreover, during the Monday press conference the president gave
to understand that possibly, Nurlan Balgimbayev would keep his chair of the Prime
Minister.
They will launch a crisis regime of economy, postponed due to the procedure of
presidential
elections. May be they will even make an attempt to feign production stimulating for
internal
consumption, as well as to prevent expansion of Russian goods, fell in prices due to the
economic crisis and rouble devaluation. However, to the greatest degree the most important
events for Kazakstan�s economy will take place far beyond the Asian region, that is why
the
passive waiting of dawn in the far east will determine the �essence� of economic
development of the country.
A new government will stimulate the further sale of the state property. Some variants are
possible here: a number of analysts point on the national transport and telecommunication
companies. Balgimbayev as an experienced oil expert will propose a privatisation program
in
his sector, which was successfully started with the help of foreign consultants at the
Caspian
Shelf by a $500 million transaction. Without any doubts they will make some steps to
develop regional links and first of all this will concern transport issues and
technologically
connected with Russia enterprises.
As for the democratic front, some different answers are possible. The president does not
seem to choose a final way. On January 5 during his public speech at the forum of
presidential followers before the election the president said 20 words regarding a freedom
of
speech in Kazakstan: �The role of mass media and non-governmental organisations in the
development of a civil society is known. Everything is clear with the media: free and
independent mass media are the best vaccination against lawlessness and despotism�.
There are no doubts that the democratic development of the country will depend on the
president and forces influencing it.
In general it is obvious that the authorities will try to freeze the situation. Control
over the
mass media, which Astana has practically managed to obtain became a result of a rather
long and well-organised from the system point of view campaign, which started with bids
for
electronic means of mass media. The end was worth the beginning: structures, close to the
upper part of establishment acquired �The CARAVAN� newspaper, the flagman of the mass
media in the republic and the KTK TV channel. It is not so important in this case which
enterprises were presented as buyers.
However, as usually one may reach absolute happiness, but in general for a short period of
time or at least not forever. Small groups of pro-Kazhegeldin newspapers appeared in the
second half of the previous year. Very rough and often even provocative information
directed
against the president and his closest entourage became their visiting card.
The development of the situation with mass media may be directed the same way as the
planned and determined development for political parties.
The definition for this phenomenon is called �a constructive opposition�. The most
vivid of
�creation� is a new position of the great three: Galym Abilsiitov, Murat Auezov and
Petr
Svoik, the leaders of AZAMAT civil group, which is re-organising into a political party
with the
same name. According to the authors of the project in the notion of �constructive
opposition�
the stress should be maid on the adjective. The role of constructors will be determined
most
probably in the process of functioning and all the players will play their roles correctly
and
smoothly. The development of the mass media is expected to be according the same
scheme. There is one aspect, contradicting the set problem � namely the potential crisis
situation in the economy of the republic in the position, directed on the keeping status
quo.
According to international experience the mass media may become one of the channels,
which will allow weakening the social tension. Time will show if such possibility is used.
For a while we suppose that the authorities do not plan any constructive changes in mass
media. We will discuss advantages and disadvantages of such variant in the next
publications.
N. A.
KAZAKHSTAN- IN -BRIEF
AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL POLL. Almatyl, about 7,5 million voters, which is 86 percent
of all the potential voters in Kazakhstan, participated to the presidential poll last
Sunday.
81.75 percent of the voters supported Nursultan Nazarbayev reportedly. Presidential
candidate, Senator Engels Gabbasov, who had got the lowest support, less than 1 percent of
the votes, reportedly congratulated Nursultan Nazarbayev with his victory in the races and
publicly opened a bottle of champaign in Astana. Meanwhile Serikbolsyn Abdildin,
Communists leader, who had been supported by a bit less than 14 percent of the voters,
said
that the poll�s results had been forged and numerous elections laws violations had taken
place on the eve and during the elections. One more presidential candidate who lost the
races, Ghaniy Qasymov, also said that he was not satisfied with the elections results
telling
journalists he was going to appeal the races results at the Constitutional Court of
Kazakhstan.
PRESIDENT NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEV RECEIVES CONGRATULATIONS. Astana,
Nursultan Nazarbayev held phone talks with presidents of Turkey, Russia and Uzbekistan.
Presidents Suleyman Demirel, Boris Yeltsin and Islam Karimov congratulated their Kazakh
counterpart with his having been re-elected as the Kazakh president.
OSCE assessment group led by Judy Thompson held a press briefing and issued a press
release on the presidential elections held in Kazakhstan last Sunday. Enclosed find the
full
text of the press release. (Note: Since the press release text was scanned and then
e-mailed
from RFE/RL Almaty Bureau its quality might be not perfect).
NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEV ARRIVED TO ALMATY FROM THE CAPITAL. Almaty,
Kazakh President arrived to the former capital last night. He met with the local citizens
and
students of the Almaty Universities and Institutes at the Central Square of the city.
Among
the guests who met Kazakhstan�s re-elected president in Almaty there was Kyrgyz
President
Asqar Aqayev who also congratulated his in\-law with his victory.
(RFE/RL)
Monitoring of Almaty Public Opinion
Comparative statistics of the elections in Almaty:
pilot data of the Association of Sociologists and Political Scientists (ASPS) and the
Central Elections Commission (CEC)
Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova
President of Association of Sociologists and Political Scientists (ASPS):
ALMATY, Jan 12 (Specially for THE GLOBE)
Terms of public opinion poll - 11-12 January 1999 �.
Sample aggregate - 648 interviewers
Analyzed responds - 647.
According to pilot data of the CEC on the voting day (January 10, 1999) electorate
activity in
Almaty approached 83% of the total number of voters entered on the voter list (718
thousand). The lists were drafted up by district akimats (municipal district
administrations)
and were submitted to the Almaty Municipal Elections Commission (MEC)
According to results of the regular public opinion polls conducted by ASPS in the southern
capital, for the surveyed period average potential electorate activity of Almaty voters
comprised 60.5%. Since the second part of November there was a trend toward growing
voter activity among the citizens interviewed, activity approached the top in the first
decade
of November. Basing on this result, the ASPS experts established similarity between index
of
Almaty electorate�s activity in the surveyed period and voter activity in democratic
European
states, where from 72.6% up to 91.4% voters participate in the presidential elections
(Source:
Comparative Sociology. Selected translation. Moscow, Academia, 1995, p.140)
According to estimation of the ASPS, expected electorate activity on the Election Day
could
comprise from 70% to 80%. The active part of that electorate would be added by
�hesitating�
voters. That �reserve fund� comprised of the respondents who answered �still not
decided
weather to vote or not�. At average, for the surveyed period position of those
�hesitating�
comprised approximately 25% of the total number of respondents.
There are not any significant discrepancies found between the pilot data of the ASPS and
CEC concerning electorate activity in Almaty.
However, there is a circumstance that entitles with asking a question to the initiators of
the
early elections.
According estimation data of the National Agency for Statistics and Analysis (NASA) of the
RK, as of 01.01.1998 there are 784.8 thousand residents 18 years and older in Almaty city.
According to pilot data of the Almaty MEC, 597 thousand Almaty residents voted on January
10, 1999, i.e. in fact 75.8%, basing on the information of the NASA RK concerning number
of
urban voters.
In calculating these indices of electorate activity in Almaty city the MEC and,
accordingly,
CEC based on the figure 718 thousand (this figure was said to the ASPS by Mr. Orlovskiy
Nikolay Kazimirovich, Deputy Chairman of the Almaty MEC) referring to the registered voter
lists drafted up by district akimats. Many citizens who showed up to the polls on the
Election
Day failed to find themselves registered in the voter lists. 6.8 thousand citizens (8.5%)
were
ignored by organizers of the early presidential elections. A part of them did not show up
on
the voting day, as they had not received voter invitations.
The most active part of them, aspiring to perform their civil duty, added themselves on
the
additional lists.
It turns that according to the CEC 835 of the citizens (basing on the figure 718 thousand)
participated in the voting. Obviously, this rate of electorate activity is rather
overstated. Way
all the haste in the elections, if the organizers based on unverified voter lists while
counting
the result? In fact, according to results of the public opinion polls conducted by the
ASPS on
the first two days (January 11-12) after the elections, out of 648 respondents 75.6%
showed
up to the polls. This index is much closer to the reality, if basing on the actual number
of
resident voters registered by the National Agency for Statistics of the RK.