Ruslan BEISOV

ALMATY, Feb9

(The Globe)

Except for a brief period in the early 1990s, the protracted war in Afghanistan always recieved the complete attention of the USSR and its successor, the CIS. Distracted by many problems at home, Russia for a short time left its Soviet puppet, a man named Nadzhibulla. The country was in poor hands, and one on one with the Mujahidin, Nadzhibulla proved no match. Quickly grasping the gravity of their mistake, the CIS politicians tried vainly to alter the situation, but it was too late. Other people had already replaced them. Pakistan-fed, American helped, Talebans had by that time, almost completely established their control over the country. Opinion is quite divided, however many experts believe that one of the main reasons that the Talebans appeared in Afghanistan was gas and oil. To be precise, the Taleban leadership planned to lay oil and gas pipe lines across the country, before they undertook their aggression. In this case, one of the major goals of the Taleban leadership was to create an outlet for the tremendous natural gas reserves of Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan incidently, is the only country of the CIS, which keeps normal relations with Talebans. In preparation of a Taleban victory, an international consortium was established. Members of the The Central Asia Gas Pipeline Ltd included companies from Saudi Arabia, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea and the USA. However, terrorist Bin Ladan knocked the USA out of the range of �Taleban�s allies and nowadays Turkmenistan wants the pipeline as never before. For the country has no other way to transport natural gas, but via Russia and Iran, and being competing producers, they will hardly let large gas amounts pass throughout their territories. The Turkmen pipeline would supply up to 20 bln cm a year. Recently, the head of the Turkmenistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), Boris Shakhmuradov, met Taleban leaders in Islamabad: Mutavakil and alfaqui Mokhammad Omar. During the meeting the pipeline was discussed. The Talebans provided Turkmenistan with a security guarantee. To be on the safe side, Turkmebashi does not quarrel with the northern alliance because its leading warlord Akhmad Shakh Masud was about to take over Kabul a couple of times. At the same time, Islamabad and �Taleban� play the first fiddle in Afghanistan and some of Central Asian leader seem to be humbled by the fact. Prior to the Turkmenian minister�s visit, the heads of Kazakstani and Kyrgyzstani MFA had also been to Islamabad. The recent announcement of Uzbekistan�s MFA spokesman concerning the intention to desert the CIS Collective Security Treaty, in many aspects depends upon the situation in Afghanistan. �Uzbekistan does not find its further participation in the Treaty, which expires in April of the current year, expedient,� he noted. The Treaty on Collective Security was signed on May 15, 1992 in Tashkent by six countries the CIS members: Armenia, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. A little later Belarus, Azerbaijan and Georgia joined them. The Treaty�s principal task until the present time has been defense of CIS south frontiers, in particular the Tajik - Afghan borders. Nowadays, Uzbekistan seems not to need it any more. The border with Afghanistan it is protecting itself. That Tashkent has failed to establish good ties with regime of Tajikistan leader Imomaly Rakhmonov was resoundingly demonstrated by the events of last year. The Tajikistan government sidestepped all the responsibility for the mutiny over Uzbekistan. We should be reminded of an incident that occured not so long ago in which, a weapon echelon for Shakh Masud, was stopped by special troops from Kyrgyzstan in the course of an alleged military operation. Everybody knew what was on the load and for whom it was consigned. Nevertheless, the ultimate policy of Central Asian leaders in terms of Afghanistan is likely to be determined in the spring. Depending on whether Talibans are able to slam Shakh Masud or �the Pandjesher lion� shows his tooth and beats back an Islamic radicals� offensive.