KAZAKHSTAN-IN-BRIEF

CHIEF OF THE KAZAKH STATE AGENCY ON STRATEGIC PLANNING AND REFORMS HOLDS PRESS CONFERENCE. Astana, February 11, Erzhan Otembayev � Chief of the Kazakh State Agency on Strategic Planning and Reforms held press conference today, February 11. Mr. Otembayev introduced journalists with results of the Agency�s work of the last year. Such importatnt documents as reconfirmation of the Chinese Kazakh border, agreements on legimitization of Russo�Kazakh and Kyrgyz�Kazakh borders, Treaty on Eternal Friendship signed between Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia, Chinese�Kazakh agreement on new oil�pipeline construction and other important papers, have been signed last year due to activities of the Kazakh State Agency on Strategic Planning and Reforms, � said Erzhan Otembayev.

KAZAKH PREMIER NURLAN BAGHYMBAYEV SIGNED DECREES ON KYRGYZ AND UZBEK MADE GOODS IMPORTS LIMITATION. Astana, quote Press Service of the Kazakh Cabinet as reporting that Kazakh Premier signed Decrees on Kyrgyz and Uzbek made goods imports limitation today, February 11. According to the newly signed documents some sorts of outputs, mainly food, imported from neighboring Kyrgzstan and Uzbekistan to the Kazakh market will be required to be paid up to 200 percent additional tax. The same sort of limitations were introduced earlier in January for the Russian products imported to Kazakhstan.

KAZAKHSTAN�S REPUBLICAN PEOPLE�S PARTY ACCUSES OFFICIALS OF DELAYING ITS REGISTRATION. Almaty, leaders of the newly established Kazakh Republican People�s Party complained about their being unable to be regsitered at the Kazakh Justice Ministry . According to Amirzhan Qosanov, one of the party�s leaders, Kazakh officials delay the registration of the party on purpose, so that the Party would fail to take part in the elections to the Parliament, scheduled for this year. Mr. Qosanov made that statement yesterday, February 10. The same day leaders of another newly created political movement, called ORLEU, also held press conference at which they said the same, namely that Kazakh Justice Ministry was delaying the process of ORLEU�s registration, in order to perevent its possible participation in the elections to the Kazakh Parliament.

The Editor's column

Concerning mathematics, physics and agricultural policy in Kazakstan

We do not digest the policy

Sergey Davlatov, volume 3

From the mathematical point of view, agriculture in Kazakstan is: 20% of the population�s vocation, tremendous areas under cultivation, 20 mln-ton harvest of high quality grain as far back as in 1990, and less than 6 mln tons in 1998 (all the more the bad quality grain) and so on. Figures form the mathematical sphere of agriculture.

From the physical point of view, agriculture in Kazakhstan is: first of all, both grain production and a giant political problem � productivity has been reduced many times over years of independence, but the number of employed people has not changed at all. This is a mass of social issues which not only touches upon, but shakes the fundamentals of the country�s reforms and sovereignty. This discrepancy between the structure of the acting units and the grain field or, in other words, the huge amount of small farmers without any real agricultural equipment on large-scale fields, which require almost� collective farms, i.e. sufficiently large structures but private ones, linked in one production chain: machine-tractor stations, elevators, co-operative land owners, mortgage banks, and finally, the apotheosis � traders, developing merchant markets, internal and external ones, guarantors and consumers of the whole process. Above all, this is the well - worded currently implemented economic policy of the government in the agricultural sphere.

I would like to tell one agricultural story from the point of view of a mathematician and physicist. Having read the story, one can conclude that failure in the grain economy was predetermined by an attempt of the central authorities to enlist the support from the local ones. In other words, the Kazakhstani crop became a �hostage�, i.e. depended completely upon how the problem of controllability would be settled in Kazakhstan.

DEFINITIONS

Mathematics � is an axiomatic science, based on rules, established a priori and studying the consequences. For instance, Euclid�s geometry � is a mathematical domain, where an important postulate - axiom is non-intersection of parallel curves. Roughly speaking, for example, bivariate Euclid�s geometry is a science on a flat surface. Geometry on curved surfaces (sphere, for instance) � yes, dear reader, it is Lobachevskiy�s geometry.

Physics � is a natural philosophy studying natural activities. For example, such a physical activity as gravity ( do not confuse with the world oil prices) leads to unrectilinear diffusion of light nearby to a powerful gravitational object � this lets us to apply Lobachevskiy�s mathematics.

Lobachevskiy could be unaware of gravity. He just formulated some rules � in his head � and studied their consequences. Ainstain studied the nature and applied various mathematics; for instance, Lobachevskiy�s geometry. In other words, simple models that comprise the principal things, are being developed in physics. Nice calculation is not an important thing, the essential is to comprehend and explain the activity. It is a kind of common sense.

Politics � is like a smell. It might be pleasant or not. A kind of art. The art is like politics, as physics�

Mathematics of one agricultural deal of 1993

That year Kazakhstan and Nizhegorodskaya oblast concluded a barter deal by personal request of Nazarbayev: �grain- �Volga� cars�. Kazakstan supplied 56 thousand tons of grain for 288 �Volga� cars from Nizhegorodskaya oblast. At that time, the world price for grain was approximately $200 per ton, sometimes it got to $260. Carrying out mathematical procedures, it is easy to note that each �Volga� cost $38 888.88 at the average price for grain and reached $50 000 at a maximal one.

Even if the local prices, within the CIS countries, were two half that of the world ones, each �Volga� would come to 20 000 American dollars. From the mathematical point of view, they cost too much and �Volvo� would have been the better buy. In this case, the mathematical difference is just two letters: Vol-ga and Vol- vo but from the physical point of view�

Physics of this agricultural deal

From the physical point of view, the price per car is not important. The matter is why did agriculture need the cars?

The answer is very simple. Let�s practice another mathematics. Let�s divide 288 �Volga� by 19 oblasts. It is correct! 15 cars for each oblast of the then Kazakhstan (in physics one does not need to count exactly but to draw an order of values). By 5 units to the oblast centres, the rest to the regions, by one-two pieces.

Thus, let�s try to draw a picture of what happened. In August 1991 sovereignty fell on Kazakhstan. There was not any fight. It is not Moscow with Gorbachev-Yeltsin opposition. Nor was there a dismantling of the management system, just the top officials were ready for the USSR collapse and only morally. It seems they neither understood it completely nor had such an experience. In 1991-94, Nazarbayev was engaged in external attributes of sovereignty and making the largest oil deals. Inside the country he had to rely on the old party nomenclature system, there was not another one. In fact, the grain deal is just a sketch, characterising how theloyalty of local aristocrats had been bribed.

Can you imaging local authorities in �Volvo� in 1993? Let it rather be native �Vol-ga�, otherwise the heads will soon grasp what has happened.

We should be reminded of one more fact. In the summer of 1994 Nazarbayev gathered all of the akims down to the regional ones. As far as I remember, it was the only meting of all-level akims (the arrangement resembled the last party congress). The participants immediately felt the care of the communist party, in the form of �Volga� cars. In 1994, a privatisation was announced, to say exactly � its three types: mass, small and privatisation on individual projects (case-be-case). Somebody might raise an objection against the terms, but let�s remember that we are just physicists now. All of them were designed to protract the time until the oil pipe gets into operation. As a matter of fact, small privatisation was a ransom to the local elite. Somebody can name it graft�So the collective farms were given to local authorities and Kazakhstan lost grain production within the frameworks of the offered �physical� model. Actually, coming back to the protraction, mass privatisation gave to common people a certain hope that they would have at least a part of property. Thanks to it, the authorities were granted a respite for a period of one year. (Let us remember, all calculations are made from the physical point of view). Small privatisation -shops given to the authorities for random, collective property, fleets and so on- ensured loyalty of the local heads for a couple of years more. Moreover, it made the brightest domestic representatives understand the essence of the process. This gave five more years to take breath. Finally, according to the authors� plan, the sale of large projects like Karaganda Metal Combine ensured an influx into the budget, stabilised regions and kept people�s hopes up. This should have given seven � ten years more. Next was the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which means additional 50 million tons of oil. That is all �

Would you like to make conclusions like: people are disappointed, local authorities are not satisfied, somebody feathered their nests on privatisation of large objects, oil prices slumped and pipelines from the Caspian region are not very popular?

We are talking about other things: about physical conclusions of the grain-Volga deal. As usual, physics acts in the capacity of common sense.

The policy of this deal

Boris Nemtsov, the then governor of Nizhegorodskaya oblasts, supplied all the 288 cars to Kazakstan. Kazakhstan instead of the promised 56, sent only 16 thousand tons of grain. In 1996, by Nemtsov�s sue, the arbitrary court of the CIS imposed Kazakhstan had to repay a sharp $8 mln, i.e. by $200 per each ton. Mathematics is again triumphant. However, we do not know whether Kazakhstan paid back the penalty, so life might disgrace the axiomatic science.

Policy is like a smell. It might be pleasant or nasty. A kind of art. Art is like policy, like physics� Only life is wide than science, over the policy, greater than anything. � Do you agree?

N. A.